2024 Degenerate Rookie Draft Guide
Professor IDP takes us to school on the deep (like, really deep) cuts in the 2024 class.
One of my favorite things about the fantasy football community is the endless stream of innovations in terms of formats, scoring, themes, and all of the other ways in which we can move away from default redraft leagues.
As of this writing, I am currently involved in a 6-round, 14-team rookie draft where the teams get to automatically take rookies from their NFL counterparts before the draft. I’m also in an 8-round, 16-team rookie draft and picking out of the 16 slot. Finally, I am eagerly awaiting the commencement of an 84-team, 6-round draft where there are 6 copies of every rookie.
All of these leagues have 11 IDP starters, roster sizes that vary from 60-85, and not a lot of off-the-shelf resources that are very useful once we get into the later rounds. These are what some affectionately refer to as “degenerate” leagues given the depth of knowledge (bordering on obsession) needed for success.
It is with these kinds of leagues in mind that I have compiled the 2024 Degenerate Rookie Draft Guide. Below, I go position-by-position highlighting three players within each that should warrant consideration in your degenerate leagues. The format for each is straightforward:
OUTLIER: Players in the back half of The IDP Show consensus that I am higher on and could represent value picks if taken between my rank and consensus.
FIRST CUT: Players that just missed the cut on my rankings for The IDP Show.
DEEP CUT: A deeper flier that I would like to grab in the last rounds of leagues with taxi squads or giant rosters.
I share where these players are in my (superflex) overall rookie database of 475 players as well as where I have them within their position.
Note: Depth charts courtesy Ourlads, grades per PFF, contract data from Spotrac, and 2023 snap counts via Footballguys.
Quarterback
OUTLIER: Spencer Rattler, NOS (OVR45, QB7)
During the draft, expectations were that Rattler could go as high as the 2nd or 3rd round since he was widely seen as a QB tier unto himself. Rattler finally landed at pick 150 in a situation with upside given Derek Carr’s inconsistent play and no solidified backup. Should he win the backup camp battle against sophomore Jake Haener, he has a path to injury or late-season snaps for an out-of-contention Saints team, which remain a possibility for 2024.
FIRST CUT: Jordan Travis, NYJ (OVR93, QB9)
This is arguably the best possible landing spot for Travis, who is coming off a significant injury and will be able to watch one of the best for the next year or two. It’s hard to draft a player with no rookie expectations but if you have a taxi squad or incredibly deep rosters, Travis has the talent to return on the minimal investment needed to acquire him in most rookie drafts. The talent is undeniable as Travis was in at least the 71st percentile for all of PFF’s QB stable metrics last season and can be the kind of dual-threat we love for fantasy purposes.
DEEP CUT: Joe Milton III, NEP (OVR113, QB10)
Milton was selected 190 picks after teammate Drake Maye and faces a steep hill to playing time but he’s still worthy of a late-round dart due to his nearly universally praised arm strength. The hope is that Milton (and Maye) will develop enough in Year 1 that the Patriots don’t need to replace Jacoby Brissett and can use Milton as the long-term backup. If you (like me) are a fan of handcuffing QBs in your SF leagues, Milton could be a valuable roster piece moving forward.
Running Back
OUTLIER: Braelon Allen, NYJ (OVR42, RB5)
Given how low I am on this year’s draft class, it was difficult to find someone I am actually higher than consensus on, so I had to cheat up into the top half of our consensus ranks to find someone who fits the bill. Enter Braelon Allen, who was drafted 134th overall by the Jets, who then doubled down on the position nearly 40 picks later by selecting Isaiah Davis. Pre-draft, Allen was 100 spots higher than Davis in the consensus big board and had comps to Tyler Allgeier (The Athletic) and A.J. Dillon (PFF). Both outcomes would be a fantastic return on investment for a player you should be able to get in the 4th or 5th round of many drafts.
FIRST CUT: Rasheen Ali, BAL (OVR133, RB16)
Despite being a 5th-round pick, Ali only has Justice Hill and Keaton Michell ahead of him to be the RB2 in a run-heavy Baltimore offense that led the leagues in rushing attempts last year even without a workhorse back. And the workhorse they brought in? An aging Derrick Henry. While not excelling in every aspect at Tulane in 2023, Ali’s zone and gap stable metric grades were each in the 88th percentile or better, which is a good fit for the Ravens varied rushing attack and also helps to future-proof him against future OC changes.
DEEP CUT: Jawhar Jordan, HOU (OVR144, RB18)
Jordan is another running back linked to a great offense with a reasonable depth chart to climb to RB2 status. Only Dameon Pierce and Dare Ogunbuwale are penciled ahead of him currently. The RB2 slot could be valuable in Houston as new starter Joe Mixon did not play 80% of snaps in any Bengals games in 2023. As a bonus, Jordan is an excellent kick returner with little competition on this front as well.
Wide Receiver
OUTLIER: Brenden Rice, LAC (OVR67, WR21)
Someone has to catch the ball for the Chargers and right now this 7th-round pick out of USC has only Quentin Johnston, Josh Palmer, and Ladd McConkey ahead of him. I’m 25 spots ahead of consensus largely due to this situation but also because of the actual talent that saw him as the 109th-best prospect by pre-draft consensus. Like others in this list, Rice is not without issues (a 14th percentile ranking against zone coverage is alarming) but he also has some promising metrics (96th percentile against single coverage and 88th in yards per route run) with kick and punt return upside.
FIRST CUT: Jordan Whittington, LAR (OVR97, WR26)
Whittington is this high based on his versatility and landing in an offense with only two locked-in starters, including an incumbent slot who, as amazing as Cooper Kupp is, has missed 14 games over the past two seasons. He is not higher because he only received 7th-round draft capital (so he’s no lock to make the team) and had multiple significant injuries in the front half of his collegiate career at Texas.
DEEP CUT: Lideatrick Griffin, LVR (OVR186, WR34)
This is a very deep cut as Griffin was a UDFA who is far from a lock to make the Raiders 2024 roster (although a recent projection has him earning a spot). Griffin is primarily a stash option in leagues with return yards as he was one of the more prolific returners in college over the past few years at Mississippi State.
Tight End
OUTLIER: Cade Stover, HOU (OVR58, TE3)
A closer look at Dalton Schultz’s recent contract with the Texans shows that he would be a cheap cut at the end of the 2025 season ($2.5 million). I am very high on the long-term potential of the Texans offense and interested in holding a guy who should be about ready to enter his prime when the incumbent might be headed out the door. Pre-draft the consensus on Stover (86) was substantially better than it was for Ben Sinnott (104) or Theo Johnson (102) and I would rather take Stover a round or two after either of these TEs who seem to be getting substantial buzz in significantly worse offenses.
FIRST CUT: Dallin Holker, NOS (OVR117, TE8)
The PFF draft guide said of Holker pre-draft that he would be a good fit in a multi-TE offense. If a team is using only one TE and playing at least one TE at all times, they would average a total of 100% TE snap participation in a given year. Last year, the Saints averaged 147% which suggests that nearly half of the offensive snaps featured at least 2 TEs on the field. Couple this with the fact that the Saints TE room is one of the weaker in the league in terms of talent – with only unicorn Taysom Hill finishing in the top 32 highest-graded TEs in the NFL last season – and there is a clear path for short- and long-term impacts from Holker.
DEEP CUT: Erick All, CIN (OVR126, TE10)
The Bengals continued their recent trend of doubling up at positions, this year with TE and DT. It’s the first TE that piques my fantasy interest. All surpasses fellow rookie Tanner McLaughlin in virtually every category: pre-draft consensus (178 to 205), draft capital (4th vs 6th), all 5 PFF stable metrics for TEs, and he is an Iowa product tied to a top 5 fantasy QB. Sign me up.
Defensive Tackle
OUTLIER: T'Vondre Sweat, TEN (OVR49, DT4)
Coming into his rookie year, Sweat checks all the DT boxes for me. He has great draft capital after being selected in the 2nd round. His stable metrics rank him in the 98th percentile for pass rush and the 100th percentile for run defense. He is projected to start as a rookie next to one of the best in the game, Jeffery Simmons. Plus he can likely be acquired at a great value as I am over 30 spots above consensus on him. He is going to be that guy for me who sits at the top of my BPA for a full round or two before I snag him and celebrate the value.
FIRST CUT: McKinnley Jackson, CIN (OVR130, DT12)
The second DT the Bengals selected within the first 3 rounds is being overshadowed by new future running mate, Kris Jenkins. Still, Jackson has the run-defending talent (90th percentile run-defense grade and 85% percentile run-stop percent) to be a frequent two-down companion of Jenkins in the near future with B.J. Hill on an expiring contract and Sheldon Rankins viewed as a stopgap solution. While Jackson is more of a nose tackle than I typically like for a fantasy profile, there are some rare exceptions to this rule. Jackson may well end up as one of them.
DEEP CUT: Leonard Taylor III, NYJ* (OVR139, DT13)
Taylor was a surprise UDFA after being the consensus #108 prospect pre-draft. He lands in a great spot with a Jets team that has had a rotating door at DT2 next to Quinnen Williams for some time. The latest player to occupy that spot is Javon Kinlaw, who has failed to ever eclipse a season-long grade of 55 (his closest was 54.1 as a rookie in 2020). Enter Leonard Taylor III out of Miami who is 21 but will have the tutelage of the best defensive minds in the NFL as his head coach and could develop into a starter by year 2. Or be cut. (Remember, he’s a UDFA).
*denotes player is included in IDP-only consensus
Defensive End
OUTLIER: Adisa Isaac, BAL (OVR64, DE9)
The Ravens are an interesting group at EDGE with the highly talented but unproven David Ojabo, Odafe Oweh on a fifth-year option, and veteran Kyle Van Noy on a two-year deal with an out after 2024. All of this is to say that Isaac will have opportunities to make a splash within the next two years and has the talent to stick (he was the consensus #73 draft prospect pre-draft). I’m nearly 20 spots higher than the guys on Isaac and prefer him over the rest of this DE tier (Jonah Elliss and Austin Booker).
FIRST CUT: Javon Solomon, BUF* (OVR104, DE14)
Solomon is a wait-and-see guy with the Bills set at DE for the near future with Greg Rousseau and A.J. Epenesa seemingly locked up until the 2026 season. Solomon’s draft capital and small school pedigree (Troy) is not going to garner him much attention but he strikes me as a Bryce Huff (Memphis) type in that when he rotates in, he is fully capable of making splash plays. He drew James Houston comparisons from Dane Brugler and that is a fine level of production for me for someone who I would only likely need to spend a post-100 pick on.
DEEP CUT: Nelson Ceaser, SEA* (OVR140, DE18)
Ceaser boasts stable metric pass rush and run defense grades that placed him in the 94th percentile or better in 2023. He was a priority UDFA signed after the draft by a Seahawks team with only one current player who graded in the top 100 edge rushers last season (Boye Mafe) and Uchennu Nwosu coming off a torn pec but seemingly on track for the regular season. Like Solomon, he projects as more of a part-time pass rusher but I like to bet on these kinds of guys late as all it will take is some success in part-time roles to see snap counts increase.
Linebacker
OUTLIER: Jeremiah Trotter Jr., PHI (OVR76, LB4)
To be clear, I am not enamored with Trotter, but if I was in a league with Adam and Evan, it seems like he would be a lock to end up on my team as I could take him a round or two later than I would be willing to and still be in the clear. The Eagles would have been a great landing spot for any linebacker this year and they traded up to get Trotter in the 4th round. Devin White is on a one-year deal and has never eclipsed the grade of 51.9 he earned as a rookie in 2019. Even if Trotter does not become an All-Pro, plenty of mediocre LBs have put up LB1 seasons in the right situations in the past.
FIRST CUT: Marist Liufau, DAL* (OVR100, LB7)
Another guy who jumped up my board post-draft thanks to surprising 3rd round draft capital and a great landing spot is Marist Liufau. The Cowboys LB room consists of journeyman Eric Kendricks and unproven recent picks in Damone Clark and DeMarvion Overshown. With Markquese Bell reportedly going back to safety in 2024, opportunities for playing time this season and beyond abound for Liufau. While there are some gaps in his game, a box grade in the 96th percentile across his collegiate career creates some room for optimism.
DEEP CUT: J.D. Bertrand, ATL (OVR141, LB12)
Liufau’s college teammate at Notre Dame is my deep cut at LB. The Falcons went heavy on defense on Days 2 and 3 of the NFL Draft, making Bertrand their 5th-round selection. Kaden Elliss has an out after 2024 and Nate Landman is playing on a one-year deal. Despite solid play in 2023, Landman’s deal is only $985,000 for the season. Some upside in his collegiate grades (72nd percentile run-defense and 77th percentile in the box) suggests Bertrand might be worth a taxi squad or back end of the roster spot this year.
Cornerback
OUTLIER: Quinyon Mitchell, PHI (OVR51, CB3)
Mitchell was the first CB taken in the NFL Draft and is only one of two CBs to have 1st-round draft capital and all of the opportunities that creates for playing time, second chances, etc. Ourlads projects Mitchell as a 2024 starter despite a crowded CB room in Philly. While he will be on the outside, he is a solid run defender and tackler for a CB (8/10 in both areas per PFF), which should help his tackle floor.
FIRST CUT: Andru Phillips*, NYG (OVR107, CB13)
Phillips has the versatility to play outside or in the slot with run defense and pass-rush upside. He may end up playing either outside or slot for the Giants, who had one of the worst-graded secondaries in the NFL last year with no player currently on the roster who finished in the top 100 for the position. If the Giants offense is as bad as expected this year, Phillips should be on the field often with plenty of opportunities to earn fantasy points.
DEEP CUT: Jarrian Jones, JAX (OVR122, CB17)
Jones is a slot corner who only needs to beat out converted safety Darnell Savage for the starting role. Given Savage’s contract structure, patience might be needed with Jones. He may not see significant slot snaps until 2026 (barring injury) but the Jaguars invested a 3rd round pick in Jones, who also has experience playing outside. This could get him on the field sooner rather than later.
Safety
OUTLIER: Jaden Hicks, KCC (OVR85, S5)
I am 13 spots ahead of consensus on Hicks but I suspect that might change as the offseason wears on. Justin Reid has been up and down at either deep or box safety but is coming off his worst season as a primarily box player per PFF. Hicks has a path to snaps in year 1 and has reportedly been catching coaches’ attention at the Chiefs rookie minicamp.
FIRST CUT: James Williams, TEN* (OVR132, S10)
Williams is another box safety (noticing a trend?) who is listed on the LB depth chart according to Ourlads and represents a possible cheat code. The Titans are thin at both linebacker and box safety. While I am a fan of incumbent box Amani Hooker, it is hard to ignore the fact that he has missed 20 games over the past 3 seasons.
DEEP CUT: Evan Williams, GBP (OVR180, S16)
Not only is Evan Williams my uncle’s favorite bourbon, but he is also one of my favorite longshot safeties this year. This is a very murky situation in Green Bay outside of Xavier McKinney as the Packers spent three picks on safety in the recent draft. Williams was the middle of those picks being selected in the 4th round but is described by Dane Brugler as versatile and having the size of a free safety but the mindset of a box safety.
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