2023 Rookie Review: Trades and Fades
2023 Rookie Review: Trades and Fades
As dynasty trade season heats up, Professor IDP examines the 2nd year IDPs who are worth acquiring and trading away.
As excitement continues to build for the 2024 NFL draft and subsequent rookie fantasy drafts, it is useful to take a look back at the 2023 rookie class for players who we might want to consider trading for or fading at the upcoming peak of the trading season for most leagues. Using a data-driven approach that combines my 2023 rookie rankings, fantasy points, points per game, PFF grade, and snaps, I have identified some players within each IDP position in the following four categories:
Trade - Sustained Success: Players whose underlying metrics were strong coming into their rookie season and 1) performed well in fantasy when compared to other rookies in the same position, 2) performed well on the field, and 3) earned significant numbers of snaps. These players have already begun to prove their worth and are in a good position to repeat or improve on strong starts.
Trade - Potential: These are players who either had strong underlying metrics or strong on-field performance but did not necessarily have fantasy success out of the gate. These players are often easier to acquire for less than the draft capital used on them in the previous season and could be great options for managers looking to trade back or out of mid-to-late picks entirety.
Fade - Unsustainable Success: These are 2023 rookies who outperformed expectations and/or had some questionable on-field performance. We know that middle-of-the-road IDP can be great short-term assets from a fantasy perspective but that sustained poor play always catches up in terms of reduced snaps and diminished fantasy output. I would not be running to acquire these players, and if I had them, I would sell for the right price.
Fade - Miss: These are players who, after only one year in, look like they may not pan out despite high potential. This is most commonly due to either a lack of playing time that does not seem primed to improve or poor performance (reality and fantasy) when they did play. I would only trade for these players in the deepest of leagues for clearance prices and would strongly consider moving them if someone is holding out hope based on name recognition.
To make this more practically useful, I also share the draft position of these players in my most competitive home league last season and what I would be willing to pay or take for them in terms of 2024 rookie picks. Note that this was in a 12-team, start 11 offense/11 IDP, true position league with No Position Left Behind scoring (my personal favorites), so adjust accordingly if you use three positions, flat scoring systems, few IDP, etc.
Linebackers
Trenton Simpson (BAL): Trade - Potential
While dealing with a very small sample size, Simpson played well in 2023 and came into the league as my 2nd best LB prospect out of the class (he was 1st pre-draft). With a clear path to increased snaps, I see Simpson as a great buy even as his hype builds.
2023 Acquisition Cost: Mid 4th
2024 Value: Mid-to-Late 3rd
Jack Campbell (DET): Fade - Unsustainable Success
Campbell was the LB1 in my class primarily due to the draft capital used to acquire him by the Lions last year. While he was the 2nd most productive rookie LB last season, his play was miles behind Ivan Pace and much closer to Henry To’oTo’o. While he could likely bounce back, he still has strong name recognition and plays for a team many of us would like to see win if our team can’t, so his market may still be strong.
2023 Acquisition Cost: Late 2nd
2024 Value: Mid-to-Late 2nd
Drew Sanders (DEN): Fade - Miss
Sanders might be seeing a positional change in Denver and is coming off a very forgettable rookie season despite high hopes from many fantasy managers. While he only logged 260 snaps, his 38.3 PFF grade was second worst among all rookie LBs, and with just 40 fantasy points, he scored .15 fantasy points per snap, which was worst among rookie LBs with at least 200 snaps.
2023 Acquisition Cost: Late 3rd
2024 Value: 5th
Defensive Ends
Will Anderson (HOU): Trade - Sustained Success
Good luck finding someone willing to give up Anderson for a reasonable price but if he is available, I would pay market rate for him in a heartbeat. There are no data indicators that he was a fluke and he is likely to improve with a stronger cast around him thanks to the Texans’ moves this offseason.
2023 Acquisition Cost: Mid 2nd
2024 Value: Late 1st/Early 2nd
Felix Anudike-Uzomah (KC): Fade - Miss
Anudike-Uzomah played limited snaps despite not having much strong competition in front of him in Kansas City. When he did play, he did not deliver from a PFF (53.4 overall grade) or fantasy (.16 points per snap) perspective. If I could recoup partial value, I would do so, as Ourlads currently has projected him as 3rd string on the depth chart.
2023 Acquisition Cost: Early 5th
2024 Value: 6th
Defensive Tackles
Jalen Carter (PHI) Trade - Sustained Success
Another player who matched the hype but is still likely far from his ceiling, Carter is a great buy who performed exceptionally well on the field (PFF’s DT6 overall) and for fantasy purposes (.30 points per snap). With Fletcher Cox retiring, Carter should see an uptick in snaps which would likely boost his points. While there may be great cheaper options (Kobie Turner jumps off the page), my degree of confidence in Carter is extremely high and he is someone I have traded for in my primary league.
2023 Acquisition Cost: Early 3rd
2024 Value: Late 2nd
Keeanu Benton (PIT): Trade - Potential
Calijah Kancey (TB): Fade - Unsustainable Success
I went the two-for-one route here because these players can be compared to one another. Kancey outscored Benton by roughly 20 fantasy points with nearly 150 more snaps. Benton’s PFF grade was 76.9 while Kancey's was 49.7, with Benton’s all-important pass rush grade being 12 points higher. While Kancey might have an easier path to snaps with Heyward still in Pittsburgh to eat into Benton’s numbers, I have seen much more hype for Kancey than Benton this offseason. In The IDP Show’s best ball ADP, Kancey is 80.6 (DT11) while Benton is 261.6 (DT32) suggesting in many leagues you could likely trade Kancey for Benton-plus.
Benton’s 2023 Acquisition Cost: Early 9th, 2024 Value: 8th
Kancey’s 2023 Acquisition Cost: Mid 4th, 2024 Value: Mid 4th
Safeties
Brian Branch (DET): Trade - Sustained Success
While I am generally not someone who trades for any DBs, Branch was my S1 last season and put up S1-type numbers in his rookie campaign. Branch is also one of the only 2nd year safeties that has a very clear runway to a repeat performance as many others have mixed data points suggesting trade and fade. The price point to acquire him may scare me or others off, but when you get to the point where you consider drafting the DB2 of the current class, maybe offer that pick to the Michael Scott (the Branch manager) of your league to see if they bite.
2023 Acquisition Cost: Mid 4th
2024 Value: Late 3rd/Early 4th
Jordan Battle (CIN): Trade - Potential
Full disclosure, I am a lifelong Bengals fan and am fully aware they signed not one but two safeties in the free agency market this offseason. However, Battle was PFFs 8th highest-graded safety overall on a modest sample size of 524 snaps. Vonn Bell (who some have penciled in to replace Battle) was the 61st-best safety last year according to PFF. If people are doubting the short- and long-term potential of Battle due to competition, modest 2023 snaps, or mediocre 2023 fantasy output, sign me up as someone happy to take advantage of that trend.
2023 Acquisition Cost: Mid 5th
2024 Value: Late 5th/Early 6th
Cornerbacks
Christian Gonzalez (NE): Trade - Potential
If you are getting to the end of your draft and are considering taking a CB (other than the CB/S unicorn that is Cooper DeJean), see if you can acquire Gonzalez for a very late pick. Gonzalez will be returning from an injury-shortened rookie campaign that saw him boast very strong PFF (80.8 overall grade) and fantasy metrics (.29 points per snap) which placed him at or near the top of an always deep rookie CB crop. Never run out to get a CB (other than DeJean, Keisean Nixon, or Marcus Jones in return yardage leagues) but give Gonzalez a look if you are planning on drafting CB late.
2023 Acquisition Cost: Late 9th
2024 Value: 10th/Waiver Add
Every Other Sophomore CB: Fade - Unsustainable Success
This is admittedly a bit of an exaggeration, but given how much volatility there is for fantasy CB production, if anyone is ever looking to buy a young CB from you, you should almost always sell before they come to their senses. Remember, CB is the most streamable position in all of fantasy except for the deepest of deep leagues, so you are better off using CB streaming resources than precious draft capital.
That wraps up today’s lecture. If you want to learn more about my approach to rookie rankings, that is available here. As always, let me know if you have any questions or thoughts as there are probably another 20 or so players that I considered (and 200+ more I did not consider) that I would be happy to give you my outlook on. You can find me most easily on Twitter at @ProfessorIDP.
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