2023 IDP Recap: NFC Edition
2023 IDP Recap: NFC Edition
Adam looks at where things stand for notable IDPs in the NFC headed into 2024.
With the 2023 NFL regular season ending this weekend, and the fantasy season finished for most of us, it’s the perfect time to reflect on the performances of our favorite IDPs this past season. Where do things stand as we head into 2024?
In the first of a two-part series, Adam goes team by team in the NFC to analyze the present reality for notable IDPs and offer an outlook for the year ahead.
NFC North
Chicago Bears
Second-round rookie Tyrique Stevenson is #good, folks. He has 79 tackles, 15 PDs, and 4 INTs in 15 games this season. Since Week 7, he’s averaging 15.8 PPG, 2nd most among corners and 5th most among all DBs. He’s currently the CB9/DB21 in Big 3 Scoring.
TJ Edwards is the LB6, averaging 16.2 PPG and 8.9 tackles per game. He had an offseason ADP of 40 overall and was LB11.
Tremaine Edmunds is the LB25, averaging 13.9 PPG and 7.4 tackles per game. He had an offseason ADP of 55.3 and was LB18.
Jaquan Brisker is currently the S20/DB31. ADP of 71.1 and was S5/DB5.
Montez Sweat has 54 tackles and 12.5 sacks this season. He’s currently the ED12/DL12 in Big 3 Scoring, averaging 15.4 PPG in 16 games this season. His offseason ADP was 61.7 and he was the ED24/DL34. His 74.2 overall PFF grade and 12.8% pressure rate were both career highs.
Washington PPG: 16.8
Chicago PPG: 14
Cornerback Jaylon Johnson is PFF’s highest-graded corner this year with a 90.8 overall PFF grade. He has a 91 coverage grade this season, also first amongst CBs. Johnson will be a UFA this offseason.
Detroit Lions
Compare Aidan Hutchinson’s stat lines in his first two seasons:
2023: 47 tackles, 9.5 sacks, 7 PDs, 3 FF, 11 TFL, 1 INT, 28 QB hits
2022: 52 tackles, 9.5 sacks, 3 PDs, 9 TFL, 3 INT, 15 QB hits
Hutchinson is currently the DL11 on the season averaging 15.5 PPG. As a rookie, he averaged 12.1 PPG. He’s played 91% of his team’s defensive snaps this season, 2nd only to Maxx Crosby. His 90.4 overall PFF grade ranks 12th among all ED/IDL. He had an 80.2 overall PFF grade as a rookie. His 16.1% pressure rate ranks 15th among all ED/IDL. He had a 9.3% pressure rate as a rookie. His 20.3 pass rush win rate ranks 7th among all ED/IDL this season. He had a 12.4 % pass rush win rate as a rookie. As you can see, he’s improved across the board and is ELITE. It’s time for Detroit to get him some real help.
Ifeatu Melifonwu was DB1 of the fantasy playoffs, averaging a whopping 31.4 PPG from Weeks 15-17. Melifonwu isn’t a UFA until 2025 so he could continue to pay dividends next year. Tracy Walker is likely getting cut this offseason and Chauncey Gardner-Johnson was only on a one-year deal, so the Path is there for Melifonwu in 2024.
Let’s check in on Jack Campbell. I don’t want to be too tough on him because he is still a rookie, but boy, based on this depth chart, I thought he would come in and command 90% of the snaps immediately. That hasn’t been the case. He is playing 58% of the defensive snaps this season, 3rd best of the LB group. Anzalone is playing 98% and Derrick Barnes is playing 68%. Let’s look at Campbell’s PFF grades from 2023:
56.8 overall PFF grade on 596 snaps
43.1 coverage grade
77.4 run defense grade
76.3 tackle grade
Alex Anzalone and Derick Barnes both should be back in 2025, so it could be another annoying year in 2024, especially if Campbell doesn’t improve his quality of play (especially in coverage).
James Houston has recovered from his fractured ankle and is back practicing. The undrafted Houston famously racked up 12 tackles and 8 sacks on 140 snaps last season as a rookie for Detroit. Houston will be a free agent this offseason.
Brian Branch finished with a 77.3 overall PFF grade this year, which ranks 17th among all safeties. He’s DB8 in PPG and DB17 in total points (missed 2 games).
Green Bay Packers
Quay Walker is LB38 in total points and LB27 in points per game. Part of this disappointing finish comes from his play in the back half of the season:
Weeks 1-8: 16.0 ppg
Weeks 9-17: 9.8 ppg
Overall PFF grade weeks 1-8: 68.7
Overall PFF grade weeks 9-17: 44.6
Walker dealt with injuries at the midpoint of the season and ended up missing Weeks 9, 10, and 14 due to injury. I’m blaming his late dip in stats on that.
Bad beat if you started Isaiah McDuffie in Week 17. McDuffie left after 15 snaps due to a concussion but he has been really solid this year. In the games that Walker or De’Vondre Campbell missed, McDuffie averaged 12.8 points and 8.4 tackles per game. I wouldn’t be surprised if we see Campbell get released or demoted in favor of Isaiah McDuffie in 2024.
13th overall pick Lukas Van Ness has a 65.5 overall PFF grade and a 9.6% pressure rate this season. He’s looked the part and I’m excited for his outlook.
Minnesota Vikings
Since DJ Wonnum went down with a quad injury in Week 16, Pat Jones has stepped up with 15 tackles and a sack over his last 2 games. In Week 16, he played a season-high snap share at 68% of the defensive snaps. That number was up to 95% in Week 17. With Wonnum and Hunter both UFAs this offseason, is Pat Jones about to have himself a role in Year 3? Definitely maybe, my friends.
Josh Metellus is currently the DB6 in total points and DB10 in points per game. Metellus has played 1,006 snaps through the first 17 weeks and where he’s played those snaps has made him so valuable for IDP:
199 on the DL (20%)
347 in the box (34%)
380 in the slot (38%)
54 at free safety (5%)
26 at corner (3%)
92% of his snaps are on the defensive line, in the box, or in the slot (the “sweet spot”)
Jordan Hicks is a UFA this offseason, can Ivan Pace Jr. continue to defy the odds? I’d be surprised, mates, although I am rooting for the UDFA.
Harrison Smith has a $19 million cap hit in 2023 but a dead-money hit of just 7.8 million. Feels like we could see the 35-year-old cut this offseason.
NFC South
Atlanta Falcons
Zach Harrison remained productive in Week 17, putting up 10 fantasy points in your leagues that use Big 3 Scoring. The 2023 3rd round pick out of Ohio State has 11 tackles, 3 sacks, 4 TFLs, and 4 QB hits in Weeks 14-17 and is averaging 17.8 PPG over this stretch. Harrison has great size (6’6”, 272 lbs) and is an above-average athlete (8.71 RAS score). Also, Calais Campbell and Bud Dupree are UFAs, and Lorenzo Carter could get cut. Harrison is likely free on your waivers.
Richie Grant was benched in Week 15, and as of Week 17, is still playing a part-time role. Seventh-round rookie Demarcco Hellams is now the starter opposite Jessie Bates. Hellams has 21 tackles over his last 3 games.
Carolina Panthers
We saw a strong finish from Brian Burns. What does Carolina do this offseason on defense? Burns and Luvu are both UFAs. Not a lot of building blocks on this defense outside of Derrick Brown, who led all DL in tackles per game with 6.1. His 89.7 overall PFF grade ranks 4th among interior defensive linemen.
New Orleans Saints
Just 30% of the snaps for Jordan Howden in Week 17. From everything I’ve read, Jordan Howden was sick and missed some practice time the week of that game. This is what led to Johnathan Abram (yes, he’s still around) getting the start. Abram took the opportunity and ran with it, getting 5 tackles, 1 INT, and an FF, good for a 20-point performance in Big 3 Scoring. I still think there’s a good opportunity for Howden to get snaps in 2024. New Orleans is in cap hell, so Marcus Maye and Honey Badger both could be cut candidates.
Demario Davis had another fantastic year. He is PFF’s 2nd highest graded LB behind Fred Warner with an 89.8 overall PFF grade. Davis has had at least 109 tackles and 3 sacks in SIX consecutive seasons, including 112 tackles and 6.5 sacks for the young man in 2023.
“Stinky” Pete Werner was one of the bigger busts at LB this year. Out of the 75 IDP-only best balls we did this offseason, Werner had an overall ADP of 64.3 and was going as LB22. He is currently the LB52 and is averaging a boring ass 8.6 points per game.
Carl Granderson breakout season: Through 17 weeks, Granderson has 74 tackles and 8.5 sacks, both career highs. His 74 tackles are 7th most among all defensive linemen. In Big 3 Scoring, Granderson is the DL20, averaging 13.3 PPG.
Are we drafting Cam Jordan in 2024? When looking at Jordan’s contract and his cap hits vs. dead money over the next few years, it appears Jordan will be a Saint until 2026. Also maybe the Saints need to hire Dave Ramsey or someone like that. From a PFF standpoint, it’s not like this guy has fallen off a cliff. Pressure rates and grades are still above league average. He was just absolutely abysmal on the stats that matter for fantasy points. I’ll prob take a few swings at Jordan in some best ball drafts this offseason.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Rookies Calijah Kancey and Yaya Diaby look the part and should be locked in as starters next season. Diaby is averaging 13 PPG since Week 10, which ranks 30th among all ED/IDL.
Antoine Winfield Jr. is having one of the best seasons we’ve ever seen from a safety. He has 117 tackles, 5 sacks, 5 FF, 4 FR, 12 PDs, and 3 INTs in 16 games.
He’s DB1 in total points and PPG. He has a 90.7 overall PFF grade, 2nd among all safeties. His offseason ADP was 100.1, going as S10/DB11.
Lavonte David is having his best fantasy season since 2016. He’s currently the LB9 in total points (245.9) and LB2 in points per game (17.6).
Devin White is having the worst fantasy season of his career.
Winfield, David, and White are all UFAs this offseason, so the Tampa Bay defense will likely look much different in 2024.
NFC East
Dallas Cowboys
Dante Fowler and Dorance Armstrong are both UFAs this offseason and Demarcus Lawrence turns 32 in April. This is your sign to add Sam Williams if he’s on your waivers in your dynasty leagues.
Speaking of Dante Fowler, could he be next year’s Jadeveon Clowney? A former top 5 pick who has underwhelmed but has a late-career surge. Fowler is tearing it up pressure-wise this season with 33 pressures on 189 pass rush attempts. That’s an elite 17.4% pressure rate. I’m optimistic for 2024. Fowler’s best season came in 2019 when he put up 58 tackles and 11.5 sacks for the Los Angeles Rams.
Donovan Wilson and Malik Hooker are both being paid well and will be back for 2024. Jayron Kearse is a UFA.
New York Giants
Dexter Lawrence has a 92.8 overall PFF grade, 2nd among all ED/IDL and 1st among IDL. But he fell back to earth fantasy-wise this season: 52 tackles, 4.5 sacks, and 9.9 PPG in 2023. In 2022, he had 68 tackles, 7.5 sacks, and 13 PPG. I’m buying the dip in 2024.
Bobby Okereke is the LB4 in total points (268) and LB5 in PPG (16.8) His offseason ADP was 31.9 and he was LB8.
I’m hoping for consistency from Kayvon Thibodeaux in 2024. His 2023 offseason ADP was 15.1 overall and he was ED10/DL10. Thibodeaux is currently the DL26 in total points (206.6) and DL28 in PPG (12.9). He has 8 games under 5 fantasy points in 2023 (3 came in your fantasy playoffs, Weeks 15-17). His PFF grades, pressure rate, and pass rush win rate all decreased in 2023. Here’s the bright side: he currently has 47 tackles and 11.5 sacks through 17 weeks despite looking average from a PFF standpoint. He has 7 games over 15 fantasy points this season. He just turned 23 years old and will be entering his 3rd year. So in my opinion, there are brighter days ahead for Thibodeaux.
Through 17 weeks, Jason Pinnock is the DB17 and Xavier Mckinney is the DB25. Both players are UFAs this offseason.
Mckinney: 79.1 overall PFF grade, 12th among safeties.
Pinnock: 67.8 overall PFF grade, 44th among safeties
Dane Belton played well in Week 17 and could be the next man up, but I’m not going to get too crazy. Belton is a former 4th round pick and the Giants will likely bring someone in via free agency and/or the NFL Draft.
Philadelphia Eagles
Zach Cunningham, Nicholas Morrow, and Shaq Leonard are all UFAs. Nakobe Dean can’t stay healthy, so it’s a lock that Philly brings in multiple LBs this offseason.
We got to see a glimpse of Sydney Brown’s playmaking ability when he returned an interception 99 yards to the house during Week 17’s game against Arizona. Reed Blankenship and Kevin Byard are both under contract until 2025, so it’s tough to project Brown to see a big playing time increase in 2024 unless Philly lets him play the slot full-time.
Brandon Graham and Fletcher Cox both UFA this offseason, so I’d expect Milton Williams and Nolan Smith to play larger roles in 2024.
Washington Commanders
Khaleke Hudson SZN has been fun, huh? Over the last 3 games, Hudson is the LB13, averaging 16.8 PPG and 13 tackles per game. He has a 74.4 PFF grade over his last 3 games.
I'm on a mission from god to stop folks from simping over average safeties. Last season was Jeremy Chinn. This season was Kamren Curl, who is the DB30 in total points and DB50 in PPG. His offseason ADP was 134 overall and he was going as S13/DB15.
Second-round pick Jartavius (Quan) Martin finished the year strong and will be in line for more work. He’s a versatile player who can play both safety spots and the slot.
Hudson, Curl, Cody Barton, David Mayo, and Jabrill Cox are all UFAs this offseason.
NFC West
Arizona Cardinals
Can we switch Zaven Collins back to off-ball LB? Year 1 as an edge rusher has been dreadful for us in fantasy: 38 tackles and 3.5 sacks through the first 17 weeks and he’s averaging just 6.8 PPG. He has a 73.3 overall PFF and a 10.4% pressure rate, both positive signs for a guy learning the position.
Is Budda Baker getting cut this offseason? Arizona would save 14.5 million in cap space if they did.
With injuries to Kyzir White and Josh Woods, Krys Barnes has taken on the LB1 role in Arizona. Barnes is a UFA in 2024 but I’ve always admired his ability to rack up the tackles. Barnes has an elite 16.6% career tackle rate — something to remember when he gets an opportunity at his next stop.
Fifth-round rookie Owen Pappoe has also seen his snaps increase. He played 50% of the defensive snaps in Week 16 and that number increased to 76% in Week 16. Unfortunately, this hasn’t resulted in a lot of fantasy points. Pappoe is averaging 2 tackles per game and 2 PPG over his last 2 weeks.
Los Angeles Rams
Aaron Donald is still Aaron Donald. He has a 90.9 overall PFF grade, 2nd among IDL. His 22.5% pass rush win rate is 1st among IDL. He has 84 pressures on 569 pass rush snaps (14.8%). It was a down fantasy year for AD, who’s currently the DL25 in total points (204) and DL29 in PPG (12.8). In other news, Donald is about to join a ton of my best ball teams this offseason.
Ernest Jones breakout SZN:
LB8 in total points and LB7 in PPG (16.6)
LB2 of the fantasy playoffs, averaging 23.7 PPG from Weeks 15-17
82.1 overall PFF grade, 6th best among LBs
Ernest led all LBs in pressures (33) and pass rush attempts (133)
Puka Nucua getting all this rookie love but what about 2023 3rd round picks Kobie Turner and Byron Young? Turner has 8 sacks over his last 8 games and is averaging 15.9 PPG over that stretch. He has 57 tackles, 9 sacks, and a 10% pressure rate on the season. His 84.9 overall PFF grade is 8th best among interior defensive linemen. Young has 60 tackles, 7 sacks, and a 9.6% pressure rate through 16 games this season. His 62.3 overall PFF grade is 77th among all edge rushers, yet he played 923 snaps, 3rd most among all DL. It’s fair to wonder if this is the highest snap volume Young will ever get.
Quinton Lake has been playing well lately, racking up 41 tackles over his last 7 games. Lake has a 73.5 overall PFF grade on 413 snaps. Out of those 413 snaps, Lake has played snaps 313 snaps in the slot, 73 in the box, 13 at free safety, 8 on the defensive line, and 6 at cornerback. Jordan Fuller and John Johnson III are both UFAs this offseason, so I’d expect Lake to have a sizeable role in 2024.
San Franciso 49ers
Fred Warner
PFF’s highest-graded LB for 2023
Currently the LB2 in total points (276) and LB3 in PPG (17.3)
Recently purchased Madden 24 because they were running a sale around Christmas, and folks, I am thrilled to announce Fred Warner FINALLY got a face scan. WE DID IT!
Nick Bosa
PFF’s 2nd highest-graded defensive lineman behind Myles Garrett
Three straight seasons with at least 50 tackles and 10 sacks. The sack numbers are down compared to 2022 and 2021, but his PFF pressure rate, pass rush win rate, and grades have all improved.
Charvarius Ward
PFF’s 5th highest-graded cornerback
Since Week 7, Ward is averaging 16.3 PPG, 4th best among all DBs
He is DB5 in total points and DB8 in PPG
Seattle Seahawks
Jordyn Brooks, Bobby Wagner, Leonard Williams, Darrell Taylor, Mario Edwards, Julian Love, and Devin Bush are all UFAs this offseason.
Devon Witherspoon gave us plenty of moments that made it clear why Seattle took him 5th overall in the draft. His 81.4 overall PFF grade is 11th best among all CBs. He’s averaging 15.8 PPG, 5th best among all DBs. He has 68 tackles, 3 sacks, 16 PDs, 5 TFLs, 1 FF, and 1 INT in 13 games.
Derick Hall will get more opportunity in 2024… but how much more? Uchenna Nwosu is due back from injury and Boye Mafe coming off a breakout season. He had a 43.4 overall PFF grade this season, so not the start we wanted.
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