<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?><rss xmlns:dc="http://purl.org/dc/elements/1.1/" xmlns:content="http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/content/" xmlns:atom="http://www.w3.org/2005/Atom" version="2.0" xmlns:itunes="http://www.itunes.com/dtds/podcast-1.0.dtd" xmlns:googleplay="http://www.google.com/schemas/play-podcasts/1.0"><channel><title><![CDATA[The IDP Show]]></title><description><![CDATA[From the offseason to the postseason, across every IDP position group, we've got you covered.]]></description><link>https://www.theidpshow.com</link><image><url>https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!aKK9!,w_256,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff5a653f6-d7a7-4bf1-a933-2bcaf317ac45_1000x1000.png</url><title>The IDP Show</title><link>https://www.theidpshow.com</link></image><generator>Substack</generator><lastBuildDate>Thu, 30 Jul 2026 06:37:21 GMT</lastBuildDate><atom:link href="https://www.theidpshow.com/feed" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml"/><copyright><![CDATA[The IDP Show LLC]]></copyright><language><![CDATA[en]]></language><webMaster><![CDATA[big3idp@gmail.com]]></webMaster><itunes:owner><itunes:email><![CDATA[big3idp@gmail.com]]></itunes:email><itunes:name><![CDATA[The IDP Show]]></itunes:name></itunes:owner><itunes:author><![CDATA[The IDP Show]]></itunes:author><googleplay:owner><![CDATA[big3idp@gmail.com]]></googleplay:owner><googleplay:email><![CDATA[big3idp@gmail.com]]></googleplay:email><googleplay:author><![CDATA[The IDP Show]]></googleplay:author><itunes:block><![CDATA[Yes]]></itunes:block><item><title><![CDATA[IDP Draft Debate: DL vs. LB Early]]></title><description><![CDATA[Mike Woellert debates linebackers versus defensive linemen in IDP drafts.]]></description><link>https://www.theidpshow.com/p/idp-draft-debate-dl-vs-lb-fantasy-football</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.theidpshow.com/p/idp-draft-debate-dl-vs-lb-fantasy-football</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Mike Woellert]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Wed, 29 Jul 2026 13:03:23 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!t-Aq!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ffd2d3bbd-055b-4743-910c-a99696b83fb1_1477x1065.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!t-Aq!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ffd2d3bbd-055b-4743-910c-a99696b83fb1_1477x1065.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!t-Aq!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ffd2d3bbd-055b-4743-910c-a99696b83fb1_1477x1065.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!t-Aq!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ffd2d3bbd-055b-4743-910c-a99696b83fb1_1477x1065.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!t-Aq!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ffd2d3bbd-055b-4743-910c-a99696b83fb1_1477x1065.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!t-Aq!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ffd2d3bbd-055b-4743-910c-a99696b83fb1_1477x1065.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!t-Aq!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ffd2d3bbd-055b-4743-910c-a99696b83fb1_1477x1065.png" width="1456" height="1050" 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srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!t-Aq!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ffd2d3bbd-055b-4743-910c-a99696b83fb1_1477x1065.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!t-Aq!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ffd2d3bbd-055b-4743-910c-a99696b83fb1_1477x1065.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!t-Aq!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ffd2d3bbd-055b-4743-910c-a99696b83fb1_1477x1065.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!t-Aq!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ffd2d3bbd-055b-4743-910c-a99696b83fb1_1477x1065.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" fetchpriority="high"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg aria-hidden="true" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p><span>This debate comes up in the group chat every single draft season. No, not if Joe Dimmagio is a dunker, or if soup is a meal. If you&#8217;re picking early in your IDP portion, do you take the linebacker or the defensive lineman?</span></p><p><span>I don&#8217;t think there&#8217;s a true consensus, and I give side-eye to anyone who gives you one without asking a follow-up question first. It really comes down to two things you can check before you ever sit down at your draft: your scoring settings and your roster construction. Once you lock those in, honestly, the DL-vs-LB call mostly makes itself.</span></p><div class="subscription-widget-wrap-editor" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://www.theidpshow.com/subscribe?&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Subscribe&quot;,&quot;language&quot;:&quot;en&quot;}" data-component-name="SubscribeWidgetToDOM"><div class="subscription-widget show-subscribe"><div class="preamble"><p class="cta-caption">This Substack is reader-supported. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.</p></div><form class="subscription-widget-subscribe"><input type="email" class="email-input" name="email" placeholder="Type your email&#8230;" tabindex="-1"><input type="submit" class="button primary" value="Subscribe"><div class="fake-input-wrapper"><div class="fake-input"></div><div class="fake-button"></div></div></form></div></div><div><hr></div><h3><span>Start with the LB position</span></h3><p><span>As NWA cautiously warned, don&#8217;t get high on your own supply. But in this case, I&#8217;ll make the exception for the linebacker position. In most scoring systems, there&#8217;s nothing inherently wrong with going linebacker early. Shocker. The linebacker guy recommends going LB early.</span></p><p><span>As I mentioned in my </span><a href="https://www.theidpshow.com/p/idp-draft-strategy-fantasy-football-linebacker-heavy"><span>previous article, there are only 32 true three-down LBs</span></a><span> and 36 played in over 900 snaps.</span></p><p><span>The deeper your league and starting requirements, the LB pipeline diminishes</span></p><p><span>I don&#8217;t think the defensive line has that problem, and it&#8217;s not because DL talent is deeper than LB talent. A pass rusher doesn&#8217;t need three-down volume to matter for you. A rotational edge playing half the defensive snaps can still get you sacks, hits, and hurries in obvious passing downs, because his value comes from opportunity concentrated in a handful of situations, not from being out there for every snap. The floor might be lower, but that ceiling is higher than the roof. Thanks for that, MJ. You can find a startable defensive lineman in the late rounds. Look at Nick Herbig. He finished as the DL29 in overall scoring and played just 60% of the snaps.</span></p><p><span>The same can&#8217;t be said for a linebacker. In those later rounds, you&#8217;re hoping that linebacker with a 70% snap share is highly efficient.</span></p><p><span>I think that scarcity gap is real no matter what league you&#8217;re in. What actually changes the answer is everything below.</span></p><div><hr></div><h3><span>Check your scoring first. Here&#8217;s the actual data</span></h3><p><span>Tackle-heavy scoring (2 pts/solo, 1 pt/assist, 3 pts per half-sack, 2 pts/TFL) rewards volume above everything else. Big-3 scoring (5 pts/sack, 6 pts/INT, 1.25 solo/0.75 assist, plus QB hits and TFLs) leans hard into the big plays; the high-variance ones. I ran the actual 2025 season through both formats to see if &#8220;does scoring matter&#8221; has a real answer, and it does; just not as much as you&#8217;d think, and not where you&#8217;d think.</span></p><p><span>Top 15 overall: Tackle-Heavy gives you 12 linebackers and 3 edge rushers. Big3 gives you 8 linebackers, 6 edge rushers, and a DT. That&#8217;s the widest gap in the whole dataset. Right at the very top, splash scoring genuinely lets guys like Myles Garrett, Brian Burns, and Maxx Crosby climb over volume linebackers who&#8217;d otherwise be ranked ahead of them in a tackle-heavy build.</span></p><p><span>But by the top 30, the gap almost completely disappears. Tackle-Heavy: 19 linebackers, 8 edge rushers. Big-3: 19 linebackers, 9 edge rushers. Same linebacker count. Nearly the same edge count. Whatever edge splash scoring gave pass rushers in the top 15 basically evaporates by the time you&#8217;re drafting the back half of round two or three, because you&#8217;re comparing full-season totals at that point, and volume linebackers just catch back up on raw tackles.</span></p><p><span>Top 50 is where it splits again, and this is the part worth remembering. Tackle-Heavy: roughly 30 linebackers, 9 edge rushers, 8 safeties. Big-3: 26 linebackers, 16 edge rushers, 4 safeties. This is the actual reshaping of your board; Big-3 scoring nearly doubles how many edge rushers are worth a roster spot, because splash production alone keeps mid-tier pass rushers relevant without three-down volume. Tackle-heavy does the same thing for safeties instead, since box safeties and run-support DBs rack up enough solo tackles to matter even without takeaways.</span></p><p><span>One more thing the data made obvious: durability beats scoring format every time. T.J. Watt had the 6th-best per-game average among edge rushers in Big-3 scoring, and still finished 37th overall on the season because he missed 3 games. Micah Parsons, same deal; elite per-snap production, 30th overall finish, because he only played 14 games. This might seem obvious; splash upside means nothing if the guy isn&#8217;t playing. I know, DUH.</span></p><p><span>That&#8217;s true in both formats, but it hits pass rushers a lot harder than it hits linebackers, since LB injury profiles just tend to run lower.</span></p><p><span>So does scoring matter? Yeah, at the margins; mostly in how many mid-tier edge rushers versus safeties are worth rostering. It does not change anything at the very top of your draft. Linebackers hold 19 of the top 30 spots no matter which format you&#8217;re running. If you were hoping splash scoring gave you a green light to fade linebacker early, in the words of Bad News Barrett, I&#8217;m afraid I&#8217;ve got some bad news. The data says no.</span></p><div><hr></div><h3><span>Then check your roster slots</span></h3><p><span>This is underrated.</span></p><p><span>If you&#8217;ve got more dedicated LB slots than DL slots, the scarcity argument gets stronger, not weaker. You&#8217;ve got more mouths to feed at the shallower position, so the LB run starts earlier and hits harder. Prioritize LB, don&#8217;t overthink it. Think of it this way. The LBs are the cinnamon babka. Tried and true, absolutely delicious. Defensive linemen are chocolate babka. Good in a pinch, and a decent replacement.</span></p><p><span>If you&#8217;ve got more DL slots than LB slots, you need bodies at the deeper position in greater volume; but deeper doesn&#8217;t mean worthless early. Grab your locked-in three-down linebacker(s) first for the floor, then lean on DL depth to fill the larger number of slots later, since that pool holds up quality much further into the draft.</span></p><p><span>If your build is FLEX-heavy, where DL/LB/DB are interchangeable, this is where the defensive linemen depth advantage matters most. Plug your rotational pass rushers into flex instead of dedicating a locked position to them, take your premium linebacker early, and lean on the DL pool&#8217;s depth to fill flex value later. It looks like flex construction rewards taking the scarce asset first and the deep asset second.</span></p><div id="youtube2--yLYXBQCLeU" class="youtube-wrap" data-attrs="{&quot;videoId&quot;:&quot;-yLYXBQCLeU&quot;,&quot;startTime&quot;:null,&quot;endTime&quot;:null}" data-component-name="Youtube2ToDOM"><div class="youtube-inner"><iframe src="https://www.youtube-nocookie.com/embed/-yLYXBQCLeU?rel=0&amp;autoplay=0&amp;showinfo=0&amp;enablejsapi=0" frameborder="0" loading="lazy" gesture="media" allow="autoplay; fullscreen" allowautoplay="true" allowfullscreen="true" width="728" height="409"></iframe></div></div><div><hr></div><h3><span>LBs are your floor, but their ceiling wins weeks</span></h3><p><span>Whichever way your league leans, the tension underneath doesn&#8217;t change. Linebackers give you floor. Defensive linemen give you a ceiling. An elite, three-down LB gives you 8-12 tackles most weeks like clockwork, rain or shine. A rotational pass rusher gives you 2-5pts in most weeks and a 2.5-sack explosion in others. Neither one is objectively &#8220;better.&#8221; It&#8217;s about which one your league&#8217;s scoring rewards, and the risk you&#8217;re willing to take.</span></p><p><span>But when that LB ceiling week hits, there&#8217;s nothing better than watching your LB notch 9 tackles, record a sack and force the fumble for a potential 25-point week.</span></p><div><hr></div><h3><span>The IDP draft day roadmap</span></h3><p><span>Pull up your scoring settings and your starting lineup requirements side by side before your next draft. If tackles carry real weight and your LB slots outnumber or match your DL slots, take the linebacker early and lean on the deeper DL pool later. If your scoring rewards splash plays and your build leans DL-heavy or flex-heavy, you&#8217;ve got more room to let the linebacker slide a round and grab pass-rush value instead. It&#8217;s like starting an offensive draft with a bell-cow RB, drafting two WRs next, then backfilling with another three-down RB.</span></p><p><span>But if you&#8217;re still on the fence after running your own settings through all this, I&#8217;ll just tell you where I land; take the linebacker. Here&#8217;s the actual case for it. Once again, shocker. The LB guy favors the linebacker. However, I think the data backs me up here.</span></p><p><span>The data above isn&#8217;t just a scoring quirk; it&#8217;s the whole argument. Linebackers hold 19 of the top 30 spots in tackle-heavy scoring and 19 of the top 30 in Big3 scoring. Same number, completely different formats. That&#8217;s not a coincidence; that&#8217;s a floor showing up twice. A three-down linebacker&#8217;s value doesn&#8217;t come from one skill that scoring can turn up or down. It comes from being on the field for every single snap, which turns into tackles no matter how your league happens to weigh them. Move the scoring dial wherever you want; the guy playing 95% of the snaps still shows up near the top.</span></p><p><span>Defensive linemen don&#8217;t get that same insurance, and in fact, their variance swings wildly. Their value lives in a handful of splash events: sacks, hits, forced fumbles, and concentrated value is fragile.</span></p><p><span>James Pearce was a fascinating case in 2025. He finished as the DL27 in Big-3 scoring, despite recording just 26 tackles. He had a strong finish to his season with sacks in 8 of the final 9 games. That tackle floor is scary, since he only played in 199 run-defense snaps.</span></p><p><span>That&#8217;s why the floor argument isn&#8217;t just a hedge for me; I think it&#8217;s the more reliable path to points across a full season. A linebacker having a &#8220;down&#8221; year still gave you 5-6 tackles a game on his worst weeks. A defensive lineman having a down year gave you nothing several weeks running, and you had zero warning it was coming.</span></p><p><span>So here&#8217;s the real instruction: use your scoring and your roster slots to figure out </span><em><span>how</span></em><span> LB-heavy to go, not </span><em><span>whether</span></em><span> to go LB-heavy at all. The floor argument holds up in every format I tested. Take the linebacker when the board gives you the shot, and treat your defensive line picks as the ceiling picks to help build up your floor.</span></p><div><hr></div><p><em><span>Be sure to subscribe to The IDP Show on </span><a href="https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-idp-show/id1473735209">Apple</a><span>, </span><a href="https://open.spotify.com/show/7Ikx5jmKhLav0zXRrdHfvM?si=8a4c3df330e54661">Spotify</a><span>, or </span><a href="https://www.youtube.com/@theidpshow">YouTube</a><span>.</span></em></p><p><em><span>You can follow us on all our social media channels, including </span><a href="https://x.com/theidpshow">Twitter</a></em><span> </span><em><span>and </span><a href="https://www.instagram.com/theidpshow?igsh=eTNqM3ZubDNobHZw&amp;utm_source=qr">Instagram</a><span>.</span></em></p>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[IDP Draft Strategy: Starting a Draft LB-Heavy]]></title><description><![CDATA[Mike Woellert makes the case for your IDP Fantasy Football drafts to start with a linebacker-heavy approach.]]></description><link>https://www.theidpshow.com/p/idp-draft-strategy-fantasy-football-linebacker-heavy</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.theidpshow.com/p/idp-draft-strategy-fantasy-football-linebacker-heavy</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Mike Woellert]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Tue, 28 Jul 2026 13:03:51 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!kvmu!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6336d3f3-8bda-4c57-a771-afc676da2a52_1477x1065.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!kvmu!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6336d3f3-8bda-4c57-a771-afc676da2a52_1477x1065.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!kvmu!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6336d3f3-8bda-4c57-a771-afc676da2a52_1477x1065.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!kvmu!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6336d3f3-8bda-4c57-a771-afc676da2a52_1477x1065.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!kvmu!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6336d3f3-8bda-4c57-a771-afc676da2a52_1477x1065.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!kvmu!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6336d3f3-8bda-4c57-a771-afc676da2a52_1477x1065.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!kvmu!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6336d3f3-8bda-4c57-a771-afc676da2a52_1477x1065.png" width="1456" height="1050" 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srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!kvmu!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6336d3f3-8bda-4c57-a771-afc676da2a52_1477x1065.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!kvmu!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6336d3f3-8bda-4c57-a771-afc676da2a52_1477x1065.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!kvmu!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6336d3f3-8bda-4c57-a771-afc676da2a52_1477x1065.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!kvmu!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6336d3f3-8bda-4c57-a771-afc676da2a52_1477x1065.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" fetchpriority="high"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg aria-hidden="true" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>Every IDP draft season, someone tells you to wait on linebacker. Heck, I even wrote an <a href="https://mikewoellert.substack.com/p/is-zero-lb-a-viable-idp-fantasy-football">article on going Zero-LB</a> as a contrarian take.</p><p> Let the board come to you. Grab your DL and DBs, mop up LB value in the middle rounds.</p><p>I&#8217;m not sure if that&#8217;s the way to go, so I&#8217;m not sure I can buy into that. I tend to hoard linebackers just like they&#8217;re running backs. </p><p>Here&#8217;s why going LB-heavy from the jump might be the way to go. The numbers back it up.</p><div class="subscription-widget-wrap-editor" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://www.theidpshow.com/subscribe?&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Subscribe&quot;,&quot;language&quot;:&quot;en&quot;}" data-component-name="SubscribeWidgetToDOM"><div class="subscription-widget show-subscribe"><div class="preamble"><p class="cta-caption">This Substack is reader-supported. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.</p></div><form class="subscription-widget-subscribe"><input type="email" class="email-input" name="email" placeholder="Type your email&#8230;" tabindex="-1"><input type="submit" class="button primary" value="Subscribe"><div class="fake-input-wrapper"><div class="fake-input"></div><div class="fake-button"></div></div></form></div></div><div><hr></div><h3>The linebacker pool dries up faster than you think</h3><p>There are 32 true three-down linebackers, in that they wear the green dot and are the playcallers of the defense; not factoring injuries or demotions.</p><p>In 2025, 36 linebackers cleared 900 defensive snaps. 45 (including the 36) cleared 800. By 700 snaps, you&#8217;re at 50 names, and that&#8217;s before you filter for the ones getting real defensive reps versus special-teams accumulation. It sounds like a lot until draft day.</p><p>Compare that to a 12-team league running 2-3 starting LB slots. You need 24-36 weekly-viable bodies just to fill starting lineups before anyone drafts bench depth. The pool of linebackers isn&#8217;t in your favor if you&#8217;re waiting. The moment you cross out of that 30-35 player tier, you&#8217;re drafting snap-share uncertainty, not production.</p><p>Now, if you play in a deeper league with 4-5 starting spots, if you wait, you&#8217;re counting on a lot of guys with a 70%-75% snap rate to carry your team. You might as well trust Kramerica Industries to fix the world&#8217;s oil problems.</p><p>I don&#8217;t think this is a scarcity argument. It&#8217;s the direct consequence of how the position is built. The three-down MIKE is a constant. He stays on the field regardless of personnel grouping. But that LB2/LB3 spot next to him, the SAM or WILL who gets replaced by a nickel corner in sub-packages, is your variable in the equation. Most rosters only carry two or three linebackers every single week. Draft past that tier, and you&#8217;re not getting a discount; you&#8217;re hoping that the linebacker has a full-time snap rate (which I consider 80% or higher).</p><h3>Full-time linebackers come off the board in bunches</h3><p>Watch any live IDP draft, and you&#8217;ll see it; the run doesn&#8217;t trickle, it cascades. Next thing you know, the entire pool of safe floor linebackers is Thanos snapped away. One league-mate takes a locked-in three-down guy, and three picks later, four more are gone. I think that&#8217;s the correct way to go, because everyone at the table knows the tier is thin. If you&#8217;re not the one initiating that run, you&#8217;re the one left holding a committee linebacker with a real snap-share question mark by Week 1.</p><p>Waiting on LB means betting that the board slows down for you. In my experience, it never has.</p><div id="youtube2-j3jh2MBJms8" class="youtube-wrap" data-attrs="{&quot;videoId&quot;:&quot;j3jh2MBJms8&quot;,&quot;startTime&quot;:null,&quot;endTime&quot;:null}" data-component-name="Youtube2ToDOM"><div class="youtube-inner"><iframe src="https://www.youtube-nocookie.com/embed/j3jh2MBJms8?rel=0&amp;autoplay=0&amp;showinfo=0&amp;enablejsapi=0" frameborder="0" loading="lazy" gesture="media" allow="autoplay; fullscreen" allowautoplay="true" allowfullscreen="true" width="728" height="409"></iframe></div></div><h3>The edge rusher pool is a bit deeper</h3><p>This is the half of the argument people miss. Productive edge rushers don&#8217;t need three-down volume to hit for IDP value. A rotational pass rusher playing 60%-65% of snaps can still put up 8-10 sacks and provide a standalone weekly ceiling off pure pass-rush opportunity. That skill set survives a part-time role in a way linebacker production simply doesn&#8217;t.</p><p>You can find your EDGE2, EDGE3, even a low-end EDGE1, in rounds where the LB cupboard is already bare. The DL well doesn&#8217;t run dry at the same rate. The 10+ sack guys might go early, but you can find linemen who provide tackles and sacks in the middle rounds.</p><p>That asymmetry is the whole strategy. Spend your premium linebacker capital early, because it evaporates fast, and backfill your defensive line later. Like Moneyball, you can build out a solid EDGE/DL group in the aggregate because your LB floor has been created.</p><h3>LBs are your floor, not your ceiling</h3><p>There&#8217;s a bear case here, and it&#8217;s worth confronting directly: linebackers are volume-driven, tackle-accumulation assets. They don&#8217;t have the boom weeks a pass rusher or ballhawk safety can produce off one sack or one pick-six. Fair. But that&#8217;s exactly the point of taking them early.</p><p>A locked-in three-down LB gives you a weekly floor few other IDP assets can match; 8-12 tackles/gm as a baseline outcome most weeks, rain or shine, opponent or scheme notwithstanding. That floor is what wins you the weeks your DL and DB spots go cold. You&#8217;re not drafting linebackers for the ceiling weeks; you&#8217;re drafting them so your lineup has a foundation that doesn&#8217;t collapse when the pass-rush lottery doesn&#8217;t hit.</p><h3>Breaking down the floor numbers</h3><p>Look at the 36 linebackers who cleared 900 snaps in 2025. As a group, they averaged 128 combined tackles on the season; right around 7-7.5 a game across a full slate. When you&#8217;re drafting for snap-share, you aren&#8217;t hunting for an outlier; you&#8217;re buying that baseline production.</p><p>Now look at the floor of the floor. Even the lowest tackle producers inside that elite snap tier, Alex Anzalone, Dee Winters, or Daiyan Henley, still averaged somewhere in the 5.5-6 tackle range per game. Even in a &#8220;down&#8221; year for a three-down player, that&#8217;s a usable, startable IDP asset. Compare that to a bad week for a rotational pass rusher; zero pressures, zero sacks, maybe a tackle or two, and a box score that&#8217;s a complete blank. The linebacker position provides a cushion that holds even for the worst performers in the tier, whereas other positions can leave you with nothing.</p><h3>Consistency over splash plays in season-long formats</h3><p>Sacks and interceptions are low-frequency events; they are volatile and stats you can&#8217;t rely on over a weekly basis. There&#8217;s too much variance in the position. An edge rusher can vanish for three weeks because the splash-play opportunity simply didn&#8217;t manifest. Tackles don&#8217;t work that way. Every offensive snap is a potential tackle, and a three-down MIKE is on the field for every single one.</p><p>Success in season-long IDP comes from avoiding those &#8220;zero weeks&#8221; over a 17-game stretch. A linebacker&#8217;s tackle volume is your insurance policy. A rotational pass rusher might have a higher ceiling, but their floor is literally zero.</p><p>Myles Garrett, the Defensive Player of the Year and single-season sack record holder, had just 5 games of fewer than 10 fantasy points. Unfortunately, 2 of them came during the fantasy playoffs.</p><h3>Strategic roster construction</h3><p>This is why you treat your linebackers as the basement and floor. Use DL/DB spots to chase the ceiling. You want two or three of these workhorse assets anchoring your roster. Once that floor is secured, you can afford to take swings on high-variance edge rushers and ballhawk safeties. If you chase the ceiling without the floor, a cold week from your DLs is a disaster. If the floor is already in place, that same cold week is just a shrug.</p><p>Try not to get cute with your sleepers. Last season, I drafted Carson Schwesinger and Jack Campbell as my first two LBs. My 3rd was Jack Sanborn. I was firm in my conviction that he was going to wear the dot, and, well, we know what happened. Back to my point, I passed on Quay Walker, Tyrel Dodson, Demario Davis, and Tremaine Edmunds. Known commodities who had established roles. Luckily, I played the wire and ended up winning that league.</p><h3>The draft instruction</h3><p>Prioritize your three-down linebackers in the first three-to-four rounds of your IDP-specific draft segment and in mixed drafts, three LBs in rounds 8-12. Follow the tiers, don&#8217;t get cute, and target the names you have zero doubt will see 90%+ of defensive snaps regardless of package; your green dot linebackers and not the ones who split time in nickel and dime. Once that top tier of roughly 30-35 players is gone, pivot hard to edge rushers and DBs, where the pool stays productive much deeper into the draft.</p><p>Don&#8217;t wait on your linebackers. The board won&#8217;t wait for you.</p><div><hr></div><p><em><span>Be sure to subscribe to The IDP Show on </span><a href="https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-idp-show/id1473735209">Apple</a><span>, </span><a href="https://open.spotify.com/show/7Ikx5jmKhLav0zXRrdHfvM?si=8a4c3df330e54661">Spotify</a><span>, or </span><a href="https://www.youtube.com/@theidpshow">YouTube</a><span>.</span></em></p><p><em><span>You can follow us on all our social media channels, including </span><a href="https://x.com/theidpshow">Twitter</a></em><span> </span><em><span>and </span><a href="https://www.instagram.com/theidpshow?igsh=eTNqM3ZubDNobHZw&amp;utm_source=qr">Instagram</a><span>.</span></em></p>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[S-Tier Bonus Episode: 2026 CB Rankings & Tiers]]></title><description><![CDATA[Exclusive to S-Tier supporters, Jon goes through the top-50 IDP cornerbacks for the 2026 season. Identifying the primary nickel defenders worth targeting, which outside corners could be worth a shot,]]></description><link>https://www.theidpshow.com/p/s-tier-bonus-episode-2026-cb-rankings</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.theidpshow.com/p/s-tier-bonus-episode-2026-cb-rankings</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Jon Macri]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Mon, 27 Jul 2026 13:03:26 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substack-video.s3.amazonaws.com/video_upload/post/208341239/5846716c-e4bd-4205-8393-2e7c26f8405e/transcoded-1784906196.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>S-Tier Podcast Episode 3 tackles Jon&#8217;s IDP cornerback rankings heading into 2026. Submit your questions and topic ideas in the S-Tier channel of The IDP Show Discord.</p>
      <p>
          <a href="https://www.theidpshow.com/p/s-tier-bonus-episode-2026-cb-rankings">
              Read more
          </a>
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   ]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[6 IDPs We Can't Stop Drafting with Sigmund Bloom]]></title><description><![CDATA[With training camps ramping up across the league, here are the IDPs we're excited to watch (and roster) in 2026.]]></description><link>https://www.theidpshow.com/p/6-idps-we-cant-stop-drafting-with-sigmund-bloom-footballguys-fantasy-football</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.theidpshow.com/p/6-idps-we-cant-stop-drafting-with-sigmund-bloom-footballguys-fantasy-football</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Josh Raymer]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Fri, 24 Jul 2026 18:31:20 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://api.substack.com/feed/podcast/208365919/c2b0b5e7576c74d86c6aa1b17d57da7c.mp3" length="0" type="audio/mpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Fantasy football should be fun! And what&#8217;s more fun than drafting players we&#8217;re excited to watch? With that in mind, Josh Raymer is joined by Sigmund Bloom on this episode of IDP Drafts to share 6 IDPs they can&#8217;t stop drafting. Whether it&#8217;s because of their outlook, their discounted price, or a personal rooting interest, these are the players Josh and Sig have circled on their draft boards.</p><p>0:00 A Love Letter to the 2026 Season</p><p>4:09 DeMarvion Overshown, LB, Cowboys</p><p>10:11 Jaelan Phillips, EDGE, Panthers</p><p>15:53 Derick Hall, EDGE, Seahawks</p><p>21:26 Upton Stout, CB, 49ers</p><p>27:58 Antonio Johnson, S, Jaguars</p><p>33:44 CJ Allen, LB, Colts</p><p>40:36 Shout Out, Physical Media</p><p>You can find all of Sig&#8217;s written work at <a href="https://www.footballguys.com/articles?userId=10598">Footballguys right here</a>, and be sure to subscribe to <a href="https://www.youtube.com/@TheAudible">The Audible</a> to hear him wax poetic about football and life.</p>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[2026 Fantasy Football Rankings: Combined Offense + IDP 2.0]]></title><description><![CDATA[An updated 2026 fantasy football draft walkthrough and strategy for offense & IDP formats, identifying the best values and ranges to target specific IDPs among the top QBs, RBs, WRs, and TEs.]]></description><link>https://www.theidpshow.com/p/2026-fantasy-football-rankings-offense-plus-idp</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.theidpshow.com/p/2026-fantasy-football-rankings-offense-plus-idp</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Jon Macri]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Fri, 24 Jul 2026 13:03:17 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!v4ed!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fda060778-ce07-4938-b61a-539565175f49_1477x1065.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!v4ed!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fda060778-ce07-4938-b61a-539565175f49_1477x1065.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!v4ed!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fda060778-ce07-4938-b61a-539565175f49_1477x1065.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!v4ed!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fda060778-ce07-4938-b61a-539565175f49_1477x1065.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!v4ed!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fda060778-ce07-4938-b61a-539565175f49_1477x1065.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!v4ed!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fda060778-ce07-4938-b61a-539565175f49_1477x1065.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!v4ed!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fda060778-ce07-4938-b61a-539565175f49_1477x1065.png" width="1456" height="1050" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/da060778-ce07-4938-b61a-539565175f49_1477x1065.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:1050,&quot;width&quot;:1456,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:2440073,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:false,&quot;topImage&quot;:true,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://www.theidpshow.com/i/207308824?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fda060778-ce07-4938-b61a-539565175f49_1477x1065.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!v4ed!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fda060778-ce07-4938-b61a-539565175f49_1477x1065.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!v4ed!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fda060778-ce07-4938-b61a-539565175f49_1477x1065.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!v4ed!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fda060778-ce07-4938-b61a-539565175f49_1477x1065.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!v4ed!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fda060778-ce07-4938-b61a-539565175f49_1477x1065.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" fetchpriority="high"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg aria-hidden="true" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>A common barrier preventing fantasy football gamers from playing in IDP leagues is uncertainty about how to value defensive players relative to the offensive players they already know. Consider this a strategy guide for the optimal approach to drafting IDP leagues, with summarized reasoning and walkthroughs throughout a typical 30-round 2026 draft.</p><p>This walkthrough combines consensus average draft position (ADP) from <a href="https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/adp/overall.php">FantasyPros</a> with my own <a href="https://www.theidpshow.com/p/2026-combined-fidp-rankings-fantasy-footballf">combined IDP rankings</a>. This guide will highlight a path to building the ideal 2026 roster by leveraging the best values in the typical ADP and identifying the best ranges to target specific IDP positions.</p><p>Scoring is standard on offense and <a href="https://www.theidpshow.com/p/big-3-scoring">Big-3 Scoring</a> for IDP.</p><p>Roster requirements are as follows:</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!1Vdx!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fba8b4687-cf4a-4690-9754-17e8593ca866_4226x1688.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!1Vdx!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fba8b4687-cf4a-4690-9754-17e8593ca866_4226x1688.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!1Vdx!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fba8b4687-cf4a-4690-9754-17e8593ca866_4226x1688.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!1Vdx!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fba8b4687-cf4a-4690-9754-17e8593ca866_4226x1688.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!1Vdx!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fba8b4687-cf4a-4690-9754-17e8593ca866_4226x1688.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!1Vdx!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fba8b4687-cf4a-4690-9754-17e8593ca866_4226x1688.png" width="1456" height="582" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/ba8b4687-cf4a-4690-9754-17e8593ca866_4226x1688.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:582,&quot;width&quot;:1456,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:null,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:null,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:false,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:null,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!1Vdx!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fba8b4687-cf4a-4690-9754-17e8593ca866_4226x1688.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!1Vdx!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fba8b4687-cf4a-4690-9754-17e8593ca866_4226x1688.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!1Vdx!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fba8b4687-cf4a-4690-9754-17e8593ca866_4226x1688.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!1Vdx!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fba8b4687-cf4a-4690-9754-17e8593ca866_4226x1688.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg aria-hidden="true" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><div><hr></div><h4 style="text-align: center;"><strong>Be sure to check out our 2026 IDP positional rankings:</strong></h4><p style="text-align: center;"><strong><a href="https://www.theidpshow.com/p/2026-fantasy-football-rankings-idp-343">DEFENSIVE BACKS</a> | <a href="https://www.theidpshow.com/p/2026-fantasy-football-rankings-idp-c55">LINEBACKERS</a> | <a href="https://www.theidpshow.com/p/2026-fantasy-football-rankings-idp">DEFENSIVE LINEMEN</a></strong></p><p style="text-align: center;"><strong><a href="https://www.theidpshow.com/p/2026-combined-fidp-rankings-fantasy-footballf">COMBINED IDP RANKINGS</a> | <a href="https://www.theidpshow.com/p/2026-idp-fantasy-football-projections-rankings">2026 IDP PROJECTIONS</a></strong></p><div class="subscription-widget-wrap-editor" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://www.theidpshow.com/subscribe?&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Subscribe&quot;,&quot;language&quot;:&quot;en&quot;}" data-component-name="SubscribeWidgetToDOM"><div class="subscription-widget show-subscribe"><div class="preamble"><p class="cta-caption">This Substack is reader-supported. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.</p></div><form class="subscription-widget-subscribe"><input type="email" class="email-input" name="email" placeholder="Type your email&#8230;" tabindex="-1"><input type="submit" class="button primary" value="Subscribe"><div class="fake-input-wrapper"><div class="fake-input"></div><div class="fake-button"></div></div></form></div></div><div><hr></div><h1>Rounds 1 - 4</h1><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!IIYN!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Feac2fc0c-5979-4da1-abf4-6d19dc77d92e_2291x6224.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!IIYN!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Feac2fc0c-5979-4da1-abf4-6d19dc77d92e_2291x6224.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!IIYN!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Feac2fc0c-5979-4da1-abf4-6d19dc77d92e_2291x6224.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!IIYN!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Feac2fc0c-5979-4da1-abf4-6d19dc77d92e_2291x6224.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!IIYN!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Feac2fc0c-5979-4da1-abf4-6d19dc77d92e_2291x6224.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!IIYN!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Feac2fc0c-5979-4da1-abf4-6d19dc77d92e_2291x6224.png" width="1456" height="3956" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/eac2fc0c-5979-4da1-abf4-6d19dc77d92e_2291x6224.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:3956,&quot;width&quot;:1456,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:null,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:null,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:null,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!IIYN!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Feac2fc0c-5979-4da1-abf4-6d19dc77d92e_2291x6224.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!IIYN!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Feac2fc0c-5979-4da1-abf4-6d19dc77d92e_2291x6224.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!IIYN!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Feac2fc0c-5979-4da1-abf4-6d19dc77d92e_2291x6224.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!IIYN!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Feac2fc0c-5979-4da1-abf4-6d19dc77d92e_2291x6224.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg aria-hidden="true" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>The first important thing to note when drafting a combined offense + IDP roster is that you still typically want to target offense early and often to get a starting lineup together there first, as the stars on offense will be the first to be drafted by the rest of your league. Fantasy drafters are typically more well-versed on the offensive side of the ball, though at the same time, their scoring and projections are often much more stable and trustworthy to bet on, regardless of league scoring.</p><p>Personally, I&#8217;m looking at running back and/or wide receiver first, to ensure I have at least a few true difference-makers at the top of my draft that I&#8217;ll be able to leave locked into lineups every week. When you have this many more positions to consider, an underrated aspect of team-building and management is having those locked-in starters that you don&#8217;t have to think about each week.</p><p>Through the first four rounds, there&#8217;s also typically still many quarterbacks and tight ends to wait on, so getting running back and wide receiver at the top is going to be the general consensus. And for IDP managers who want a true elite difference maker in the EDGE spot, it could make sense (dependent on scoring) to make the end of Round 4 the first real range to look at those elite players, but not mandatory by any means.</p><h4>Ideal starting lineup through the first four rounds:</h4><ul><li><p>QB: 0-1</p></li><li><p>RB: 1-3</p></li><li><p>WR: 1-3</p></li><li><p>TE: 0-1</p></li><li><p>ED: 0-1</p></li></ul>
      <p>
          <a href="https://www.theidpshow.com/p/2026-fantasy-football-rankings-offense-plus-idp">
              Read more
          </a>
      </p>
   ]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[2026 Combined IDP Rankings 2.0]]></title><description><![CDATA[Updated 2026 fantasy football IDP rankings combining all defensive positions in order to compare values and build your league-winning roster.]]></description><link>https://www.theidpshow.com/p/2026-combined-fidp-rankings-fantasy-footballf</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.theidpshow.com/p/2026-combined-fidp-rankings-fantasy-footballf</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Jon Macri]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Thu, 23 Jul 2026 13:00:57 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!P4VO!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff0930242-6d7c-42ce-99a3-703f7e3ada91_1478x1064.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!P4VO!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff0930242-6d7c-42ce-99a3-703f7e3ada91_1478x1064.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!P4VO!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff0930242-6d7c-42ce-99a3-703f7e3ada91_1478x1064.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!P4VO!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff0930242-6d7c-42ce-99a3-703f7e3ada91_1478x1064.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!P4VO!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff0930242-6d7c-42ce-99a3-703f7e3ada91_1478x1064.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!P4VO!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff0930242-6d7c-42ce-99a3-703f7e3ada91_1478x1064.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!P4VO!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff0930242-6d7c-42ce-99a3-703f7e3ada91_1478x1064.png" width="1456" height="1048" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/f0930242-6d7c-42ce-99a3-703f7e3ada91_1478x1064.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:1048,&quot;width&quot;:1456,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:1855085,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:false,&quot;topImage&quot;:true,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://www.theidpshow.com/i/200787886?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff0930242-6d7c-42ce-99a3-703f7e3ada91_1478x1064.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!P4VO!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff0930242-6d7c-42ce-99a3-703f7e3ada91_1478x1064.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!P4VO!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff0930242-6d7c-42ce-99a3-703f7e3ada91_1478x1064.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!P4VO!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff0930242-6d7c-42ce-99a3-703f7e3ada91_1478x1064.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!P4VO!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff0930242-6d7c-42ce-99a3-703f7e3ada91_1478x1064.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" fetchpriority="high"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg aria-hidden="true" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>This page combines all defensive positions into one set of 2026 redraft IDP rankings, allowing you to compare linebackers, defensive linemen, and defensive backs through a single lens while identifying positional tiers and draft value pockets. Rankings and tiers will be updated throughout the offseason and preseason as depth charts evolve, injuries occur, and projected usage becomes clearer.</p><p>This page is just a full table of combined positional rankings, but to view detailed written analysis and tiers for each IDP position, be sure to check out the articles linked below.</p><h4 style="text-align: center;"><strong>Be sure to check out our 2026 IDP positional rankings:</strong></h4><p style="text-align: center;"><strong><a href="https://www.theidpshow.com/p/2026-fantasy-football-rankings-idp-343">DEFENSIVE BACKS</a> | <a href="https://www.theidpshow.com/p/2026-fantasy-football-rankings-idp-c55">LINEBACKERS</a> | <a href="https://www.theidpshow.com/p/2026-fantasy-football-rankings-idp">DEFENSIVE LINEMEN</a></strong></p><p class="button-wrapper" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://www.theidpshow.com/p/2026-idp-fantasy-football-projections-rankings&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Also, check out our 2026 IDP Projections&quot;,&quot;action&quot;:null,&quot;class&quot;:null}" data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton"><a class="button primary" href="https://www.theidpshow.com/p/2026-idp-fantasy-football-projections-rankings"><span>Also, check out our 2026 IDP Projections</span></a></p><div><hr></div><ul><li><p><em>Rankings are based on Big 3 Scoring settings, explained <a href="https://www.theidpshow.com/p/big-3-scoring">here</a>.</em></p></li><li><p><em>This list assumes true position designations (DT, EDGE, LB, CB, S) for players (e.g., outside linebackers are considered &#8220;edge defenders&#8221; to reflect real NFL value).</em></p></li></ul><div><hr></div>
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   ]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[2026 Fantasy Football Rankings: IDP Linebacker Tiers 2.0]]></title><description><![CDATA[Updated tier-based linebacker rankings with potential breakouts, consistent tackle producers, and high-upside sleepers.]]></description><link>https://www.theidpshow.com/p/2026-fantasy-football-rankings-idp-c55</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.theidpshow.com/p/2026-fantasy-football-rankings-idp-c55</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Jon Macri]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Wed, 22 Jul 2026 13:02:51 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!7rAn!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F41bf27fd-f238-4779-9dd0-a6bb2eed60da_1492x1054.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!7rAn!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F41bf27fd-f238-4779-9dd0-a6bb2eed60da_1492x1054.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!7rAn!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F41bf27fd-f238-4779-9dd0-a6bb2eed60da_1492x1054.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!7rAn!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F41bf27fd-f238-4779-9dd0-a6bb2eed60da_1492x1054.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!7rAn!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F41bf27fd-f238-4779-9dd0-a6bb2eed60da_1492x1054.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!7rAn!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F41bf27fd-f238-4779-9dd0-a6bb2eed60da_1492x1054.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!7rAn!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F41bf27fd-f238-4779-9dd0-a6bb2eed60da_1492x1054.png" width="1456" height="1029" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/41bf27fd-f238-4779-9dd0-a6bb2eed60da_1492x1054.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:1029,&quot;width&quot;:1456,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:1864804,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:false,&quot;topImage&quot;:true,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://www.theidpshow.com/i/199752605?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F41bf27fd-f238-4779-9dd0-a6bb2eed60da_1492x1054.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!7rAn!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F41bf27fd-f238-4779-9dd0-a6bb2eed60da_1492x1054.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!7rAn!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F41bf27fd-f238-4779-9dd0-a6bb2eed60da_1492x1054.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!7rAn!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F41bf27fd-f238-4779-9dd0-a6bb2eed60da_1492x1054.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!7rAn!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F41bf27fd-f238-4779-9dd0-a6bb2eed60da_1492x1054.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" fetchpriority="high"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg aria-hidden="true" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>The linebacker position typically serves as the backbone of IDP production, ensuring that fantasy managers can get solid floors on a weekly basis, with the potential to find true difference-makers. The position is filled with volume-driven producers, and there&#8217;s nothing wrong with that. However, the true advantage lies in identifying high-end impact players who can deliver even more with their opportunities, which often separates a true LB1 candidate from the rest of the pack.</p><p>Utilizing these tiered rankings will be key to maximizing value throughout your 2026 IDP fantasy drafts this offseason, whether you&#8217;re in big-play, balanced, or tackle-heavy scoring formats.</p><h4 style="text-align: center;"><strong>Be sure to check out our 2026 IDP Projections:</strong></h4><p class="button-wrapper" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://www.theidpshow.com/p/2026-idp-fantasy-football-projections-rankings&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;2026 IDP Projections&quot;,&quot;action&quot;:null,&quot;class&quot;:null}" data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton"><a class="button primary" href="https://www.theidpshow.com/p/2026-idp-fantasy-football-projections-rankings"><span>2026 IDP Projections</span></a></p><div><hr></div><div id="youtube2-j3jh2MBJms8" class="youtube-wrap" data-attrs="{&quot;videoId&quot;:&quot;j3jh2MBJms8&quot;,&quot;startTime&quot;:null,&quot;endTime&quot;:null}" data-component-name="Youtube2ToDOM"><div class="youtube-inner"><iframe src="https://www.youtube-nocookie.com/embed/j3jh2MBJms8?rel=0&amp;autoplay=0&amp;showinfo=0&amp;enablejsapi=0" frameborder="0" loading="lazy" gesture="media" allow="autoplay; fullscreen" allowautoplay="true" allowfullscreen="true" width="728" height="409"></iframe></div></div><h1>Tier 1: LB1 Betting Favorites</h1><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!OL54!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fcf254d30-8e6d-45ab-afb9-3e8af2e5e48b_1658x936.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!OL54!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fcf254d30-8e6d-45ab-afb9-3e8af2e5e48b_1658x936.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!OL54!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fcf254d30-8e6d-45ab-afb9-3e8af2e5e48b_1658x936.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!OL54!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fcf254d30-8e6d-45ab-afb9-3e8af2e5e48b_1658x936.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!OL54!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fcf254d30-8e6d-45ab-afb9-3e8af2e5e48b_1658x936.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!OL54!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fcf254d30-8e6d-45ab-afb9-3e8af2e5e48b_1658x936.png" width="1456" height="822" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/cf254d30-8e6d-45ab-afb9-3e8af2e5e48b_1658x936.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:822,&quot;width&quot;:1456,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:null,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:null,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:false,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:null,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!OL54!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fcf254d30-8e6d-45ab-afb9-3e8af2e5e48b_1658x936.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!OL54!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fcf254d30-8e6d-45ab-afb9-3e8af2e5e48b_1658x936.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!OL54!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fcf254d30-8e6d-45ab-afb9-3e8af2e5e48b_1658x936.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!OL54!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fcf254d30-8e6d-45ab-afb9-3e8af2e5e48b_1658x936.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg aria-hidden="true" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>Everyone is going to have their personal favorites for LB1 this season, and for me, the six linebackers in this first tier have the best shot of getting there, thanks to being proven elite tacklers at the position, and once again set for locked-in every-down roles in 2026.</p><p>Starting with the obvious names at the top, Jack Campbell and Carson Schwesinger, however you want to order them heading into this season, much like with the <a href="https://www.theidpshow.com/p/2026-idp-dynasty-rankings-and-tiers-fantasyfootball">dynasty rankings</a>, you can&#8217;t really go wrong. Both players put up dominant numbers in <a href="https://www.theidpshow.com/p/idp-production-vs-expected-database">Tackles versus Expected</a> in 2025, resulting in <a href="https://www.theidpshow.com/p/big-3-idp-scoring-leaders">top-five IDP finishes</a> for the position. Campbell finally got a full-time role this past season, and after showing the LB1 IDP potential of what he could be in small doses in previous seasons, he finally had the chance to deliver on that, with the expectation that he&#8217;ll continue to do so this season and beyond.</p><p>Schwesinger wasted no time in delivering on his IDP potential, immediately hitting the ground running as a rookie, finishing in the 94th percentile in <a href="https://www.theidpshow.com/p/idp-production-vs-expected-database">Tackles versus Expected</a>, LB5 for IDP, and the eventual Defensive Rookie of the Year. Heading into Year 2, expectations are significantly higher for Schwesinger, as evidenced by this ranking, but given his talent, IDP managers shouldn&#8217;t have any major concerns about him failing to return LB1 value.</p><p>Roquan Smith is the <em>only</em> linebacker to not finish below the 90th percentile in <a href="https://www.theidpshow.com/p/idp-production-vs-expected-database">Tackles versus Expected</a> every year since 2021. He is the poster boy for consistency at the linebacker position, and as safe a bet for an LB1 finish as you can find heading into 2026. Smith missed a couple of games in 2025, which kept him from reaching that LB1 mark, but, like every player, injuries are unavoidable. If we&#8217;re projecting an ideal world with no missed time, I&#8217;m not betting against Smith delivering top-12 production once again.</p><p>Speaking of an ideal world where players won&#8217;t miss time&#8230;getting a full season of Blake Cashman for IDP would be fantastic. Unfortunately, Cashman has missed a minimum of three games during the fantasy season in each of the past three years since he&#8217;s taken on a starting role. What&#8217;s frustrating about that missed time, specifically over the last two seasons in Minnesota, is that Cashman has been LB5 and LB6 in <a href="https://www.theidpshow.com/p/big-3-idp-scoring-leaders">points per game</a> in 2024 and 2025, respectively. I&#8217;m hitching my horse to a wagon with a wobbly wheel, but I have confidence that said wheel will keep us rolling for at least one more season.</p><p>Jordyn Brooks is nearly impossible to keep out of this tier after the 2025 season he just had, finishing as the overall LB1 for IDP by a comfortable margin, and dominating the <a href="https://www.theidpshow.com/p/idp-production-vs-expected-database">Tackles versus Expected</a> metric once again. Even with some expected regression in a new defensive scheme, and assuming he&#8217;s still on the team this season in the final year of his contract, it&#8217;s difficult to imagine anything less than a top-12 finish for the former first-round pick. Brooks will more than likely get drafted anywhere in this top-six linebacker range, and regardless of where you take him, he remains a strong bet to make heading into 2026.</p><p>Lastly, Nick Bolton is coming off a resurgent 2025 season where he seemingly returned to his Year 1 and Year 2 form, and after a couple of quieter seasons in a row, my confidence in Bolton as an LB1 has been renewed. This is, after all, a player who, outside of one year (2024), has finished no worse than 85th percentile in <a href="https://www.theidpshow.com/p/idp-production-vs-expected-database">Tackles versus Expected</a>, with two of those years resulting in 99th percentile marks, and last year finishing 93rd percentile. The evidence around Bolton as an elite tackler is strong, and it helped him finish as the <a href="https://www.theidpshow.com/p/big-3-idp-scoring-leaders">overall LB6</a> in 2025. A similar outlook for 2026 is well within his range of possibilities.</p>
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      </p>
   ]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[2026 Fantasy Football Rankings: IDP Defensive Back Tiers 2.0]]></title><description><![CDATA[Updated tier-based defensive back rankings with box-heavy safeties, slot defenders, and big-play-upside ball hawks.]]></description><link>https://www.theidpshow.com/p/2026-fantasy-football-rankings-idp-343</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.theidpshow.com/p/2026-fantasy-football-rankings-idp-343</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Jon Macri]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Tue, 21 Jul 2026 13:01:40 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!V8WD!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F15a769c3-259c-4e32-b75a-7e479f1bc199_1484x1060.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!V8WD!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F15a769c3-259c-4e32-b75a-7e479f1bc199_1484x1060.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!V8WD!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F15a769c3-259c-4e32-b75a-7e479f1bc199_1484x1060.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!V8WD!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F15a769c3-259c-4e32-b75a-7e479f1bc199_1484x1060.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!V8WD!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F15a769c3-259c-4e32-b75a-7e479f1bc199_1484x1060.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!V8WD!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F15a769c3-259c-4e32-b75a-7e479f1bc199_1484x1060.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!V8WD!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F15a769c3-259c-4e32-b75a-7e479f1bc199_1484x1060.png" width="1456" height="1040" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/15a769c3-259c-4e32-b75a-7e479f1bc199_1484x1060.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:1040,&quot;width&quot;:1456,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:1931146,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:false,&quot;topImage&quot;:true,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://www.theidpshow.com/i/200141742?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F15a769c3-259c-4e32-b75a-7e479f1bc199_1484x1060.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!V8WD!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F15a769c3-259c-4e32-b75a-7e479f1bc199_1484x1060.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!V8WD!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F15a769c3-259c-4e32-b75a-7e479f1bc199_1484x1060.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!V8WD!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F15a769c3-259c-4e32-b75a-7e479f1bc199_1484x1060.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!V8WD!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F15a769c3-259c-4e32-b75a-7e479f1bc199_1484x1060.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" fetchpriority="high"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg aria-hidden="true" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>The defensive back position is the deepest in all of fantasy football, creating significant year-to-year instability in production, with big plays like interceptions often swaying results. Since interceptions are impossible to predict, it&#8217;s up to us as IDP managers to understand and target the production we know is more stable and predictable for IDP. This often means safeties that line up closer to the line of scrimmage and cornerbacks who get most of their work in the slot. If we can nail the base tackle production for these DBs and let the positive variance gods do their thing in allowing big plays to hit on top, that&#8217;s all the recipe we need to get a win at the position. These rankings/tiers are designed to help identify who these top targets are, in order to give us as many possible hits at the position without having to worry about spending too much to acquire them in drafts.</p><p>Utilizing these tiered rankings will be key to maximizing value throughout your 2026 IDP fantasy drafts this offseason, whether you&#8217;re in big-play, balanced, or tackle-heavy scoring formats.</p><h4 style="text-align: center;"><strong>Be sure to check out our 2026 IDP projections:</strong></h4><p class="button-wrapper" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://www.theidpshow.com/p/2026-idp-fantasy-football-projections-rankings&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;2026 IDP Projections&quot;,&quot;action&quot;:null,&quot;class&quot;:null}" data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton"><a class="button primary" href="https://www.theidpshow.com/p/2026-idp-fantasy-football-projections-rankings"><span>2026 IDP Projections</span></a></p><div id="youtube2-5R7l8RYu8h0" class="youtube-wrap" data-attrs="{&quot;videoId&quot;:&quot;5R7l8RYu8h0&quot;,&quot;startTime&quot;:null,&quot;endTime&quot;:null}" data-component-name="Youtube2ToDOM"><div class="youtube-inner"><iframe src="https://www.youtube-nocookie.com/embed/5R7l8RYu8h0?rel=0&amp;autoplay=0&amp;showinfo=0&amp;enablejsapi=0" frameborder="0" loading="lazy" gesture="media" allow="autoplay; fullscreen" allowautoplay="true" allowfullscreen="true" width="728" height="409"></iframe></div></div><div><hr></div><h1>Tier 1: Travis Hunter &amp; Friends</h1><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!YIDj!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F308e5b87-88de-4250-b4cb-755b69497636_2143x1688.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!YIDj!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F308e5b87-88de-4250-b4cb-755b69497636_2143x1688.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!YIDj!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F308e5b87-88de-4250-b4cb-755b69497636_2143x1688.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!YIDj!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F308e5b87-88de-4250-b4cb-755b69497636_2143x1688.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!YIDj!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F308e5b87-88de-4250-b4cb-755b69497636_2143x1688.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!YIDj!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F308e5b87-88de-4250-b4cb-755b69497636_2143x1688.png" width="1456" height="1147" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/308e5b87-88de-4250-b4cb-755b69497636_2143x1688.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:1147,&quot;width&quot;:1456,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:null,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:null,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:false,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:null,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!YIDj!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F308e5b87-88de-4250-b4cb-755b69497636_2143x1688.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!YIDj!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F308e5b87-88de-4250-b4cb-755b69497636_2143x1688.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!YIDj!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F308e5b87-88de-4250-b4cb-755b69497636_2143x1688.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!YIDj!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F308e5b87-88de-4250-b4cb-755b69497636_2143x1688.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg aria-hidden="true" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>Most of these defensive backs will cost more than I&#8217;m typically comfortable paying in IDP drafts to acquire; however, I&#8217;ve also included some names who could deliver similarly, but won&#8217;t cost nearly as much in drafts.</p><p>There&#8217;s a legitimate argument for Travis Hunter to be in a tier of his own, and technically, he is, because of his unique deployment and cheat-code potential. But for leagues where he doesn&#8217;t have a cornerback designation, or isn&#8217;t scoring both offensive and defensive points, he&#8217;s not going to carry nearly as much value. Obviously, Hunter&#8217;s dual usage isn&#8217;t guaranteed, and the amount in which he is getting that usage week to week is likely to vary, but in fantasy football, where we should absolutely be targeting upside, capitalizing on production from both sides of the ball with one player that we can potentially plug into a DB starting slot is a risk worth taking. For those who don&#8217;t believe in the Lisan Al-Gaib of IDP, I get it, and you can just ignore this ranking and keep moving along. But for those who believe even a little, then don&#8217;t hesitate to treat him as your highly-drafted DB1 and let him take you to the promised land.</p><p>Kyle Hamilton and Nick Emmanwori are going to be drafted early in IDP drafts; there&#8217;s just no way around that. And if you want to acquire the top two best projections for elite safety production as tacklers with big-play ability, then you&#8217;re going to have to pay up to get them. The usage, efficiency, and big-play upside for Hamilton and Emmanwori are nearly identical as far as I&#8217;m concerned, so order them however you want. Just know the follies of investing too early at a position where others can produce similarly, and it might cost you passing up on more valuable IDPs/positions to be one of the first drafters to target a defensive back.</p><p>It&#8217;s worth noting that, as inconsistent as the DB position tends to be, Derwin James has regularly bucked that trend as one of the most effective high-end producers every single year. He&#8217;s finished no worse than S6 in each of the past five seasons, and he&#8217;s done so every year of his career when he&#8217;s played more than four games. Again, it&#8217;s a level of elite consistency that is truly unique for the position, and it&#8217;s why we should appreciate James for the IDP Hall of Famer that he is, and will be when his career is all said and done. He&#8217;s still going strong, though, and we can continue to bask in his greatness&#8230;as long as we&#8217;re willing to pay up for it.</p><p>Nick Cross has delivered elite production over the last two seasons, finishing as the overall S3 in 2024 and S1 in 2025, doing so under two different defensive coordinators. Now, heading into 2026, Cross joins a new team and will once again be expected to deliver elite production in a new defensive system. Luckily for Cross, this will be the third consecutive season that he should get one of the league&#8217;s more ideal IDP safety deployments within that system. Considering Cross has operated as at least a 90th percentile <a href="https://www.theidpshow.com/p/idp-production-vs-expected-database">Tackles versus Expected</a> scorer over the last two seasons, there&#8217;s reason to believe he can maintain his elite production stepping into another box-heavy role in Washington.</p><p>Budda Baker, Jeremy Chinn, and Quentin Lake are as close to consistent (after Derwin James) as there&#8217;s been at the position, with all three players proving to be highly effective when given the opportunity, outside of 2023, which was unkind to all three safeties. Over the past two seasons, and beyond for Baker and Chinn, they&#8217;ve been able to deliver top-20 IDP production for the position, either overall or in points per game. While that doesn&#8217;t sound like a high bar to set, when we&#8217;re looking at a position with such a weak year-to-year correlation in IDP scoring, these three names are about as safe as it gets.</p><p>Tykee Smith had a breakout year in 2025, finishing as the <a href="https://www.theidpshow.com/p/big-3-idp-scoring-leaders">overall S2</a> thanks to elite tackling, evidenced by his 97th percentile finish in <a href="https://www.theidpshow.com/p/idp-production-vs-expected-database">Tackles versus Expected</a>, which came from his ideal deployment in Tampa Bay&#8217;s defense. Overtaking even Antoine Winfield Jr. as the preferred IDP option on the team, Smith&#8217;s projection for 2026 remains elite, and if he can continue to deliver similarly to his 2025, he&#8217;ll be a locked-in weekly option for the position.</p><p>Chamarri Conner is one of the new names to consider as a plug-and-play IDP safety/DB, coming off a really strong season where he finished as the <a href="https://www.theidpshow.com/p/big-3-idp-scoring-leaders">overall S12</a>. Conner&#8217;s usage in Kansas City saw him play mostly in the slot (38%) and box (40%), and while he may not get as much usage in the slot this year, he still projects for heavy usage around the line of scrimmage. Given his solid 76th percentile performance in Tackles versus Expected last year, even with an ideal deployment, I&#8217;d fully expect him to return similar value in 2026.</p><p>Along with Conner, Kevin Winston Jr. is going to come with the most affordable ADP from Tier 1, making him an ideal target in drafts, and someone that I&#8217;d hope readers and subscribers to The IDP Show will end up with a lot of shares. Winston only appeared in 10 games as a rookie, playing a full-time role in just four of them. In those four games, he delivered 29 total tackles, four tackles for loss, three QB hits, a sack, and two pass breakups. This was good for 15.3 points per game in <a href="https://www.theidpshow.com/p/big-3-idp-scoring-leaders">Big 3 scoring</a>, which is obviously a small sample size, but would have been good for DB1 in that regard. We&#8217;re getting a new coaching staff in Tennessee, which includes Gus Bradley as defensive coordinator. If you&#8217;re familiar with Bradley&#8217;s scheme over the years, you&#8217;ll know that he has typically deployed a very heavy rate of single-high safety looks, which allows the safety to line up closer to the line of scrimmage and thrive for IDP. Winston is the prime candidate for that usage right now, and considering how encouraging he looked as a rookie, that&#8217;s potential that I don&#8217;t want to miss out on.</p><p>Tre&#8217;von Moehrig has been a prime beneficiary of ideal usage over the past two years, moving from a true deep safety role during his first three years in the league, when he often produced well outside the top-24 at his position. Now, he&#8217;s been a top-10 IDP safety in each of the last two years since his massive shift in deployment. He&#8217;s a great example for those looking at how scheme can affect IDP production. Moehrig&#8217;s potential usage for 2026 isn&#8217;t really expected to change all that much, barring the team deciding Lathan Ransom would be best suited for that role &#8212; which is entirely possible, and something I&#8217;m secretly hoping for &#8212; but realistically, we should be expecting close to more of the same from Moehrig this season.</p>
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   ]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[2026 Fantasy Football Rankings: IDP Defensive Linemen Tiers 2.0]]></title><description><![CDATA[Updated tier-based defensive linemen rankings with breakout pass rushers, consistent tackle producers, and high-upside sleepers.]]></description><link>https://www.theidpshow.com/p/2026-fantasy-football-rankings-idp</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.theidpshow.com/p/2026-fantasy-football-rankings-idp</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Jon Macri]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Mon, 20 Jul 2026 13:03:02 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!V0yD!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc2d5545b-eea1-42aa-86c8-d35cf562e1d1_1448x1008.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!V0yD!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc2d5545b-eea1-42aa-86c8-d35cf562e1d1_1448x1008.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!V0yD!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc2d5545b-eea1-42aa-86c8-d35cf562e1d1_1448x1008.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!V0yD!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc2d5545b-eea1-42aa-86c8-d35cf562e1d1_1448x1008.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!V0yD!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc2d5545b-eea1-42aa-86c8-d35cf562e1d1_1448x1008.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!V0yD!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc2d5545b-eea1-42aa-86c8-d35cf562e1d1_1448x1008.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!V0yD!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc2d5545b-eea1-42aa-86c8-d35cf562e1d1_1448x1008.png" width="1448" height="1008" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/c2d5545b-eea1-42aa-86c8-d35cf562e1d1_1448x1008.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:1008,&quot;width&quot;:1448,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:2441108,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:false,&quot;topImage&quot;:true,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://www.theidpshow.com/i/199376094?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa5056bb1-5a2e-460b-88ae-abfc00a2a2d4_1448x1086.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!V0yD!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc2d5545b-eea1-42aa-86c8-d35cf562e1d1_1448x1008.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!V0yD!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc2d5545b-eea1-42aa-86c8-d35cf562e1d1_1448x1008.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!V0yD!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc2d5545b-eea1-42aa-86c8-d35cf562e1d1_1448x1008.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!V0yD!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc2d5545b-eea1-42aa-86c8-d35cf562e1d1_1448x1008.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" fetchpriority="high"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg aria-hidden="true" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>The defensive line position tends to be one of the biggest difference-makers in IDP fantasy football, with sack production often separating the championship contenders from the rest of the field. Heading into the 2026 season, we&#8217;ll look to identify the elite pass rushers, the strong tackle floors, and the potential sleepers and breakout candidates who could end up being the best values in redraft leagues.</p><p>Utilizing these tiered rankings will be key to maximizing value throughout your 2026 IDP fantasy drafts this offseason, whether you&#8217;re in big-play, balanced, or tackle-heavy scoring formats.</p><h4 style="text-align: center;"><strong>Be sure to check out our 2026 IDP projections:</strong></h4><p class="button-wrapper" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://www.theidpshow.com/p/2026-idp-fantasy-football-projections-rankings&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;2026 IDP Projections&quot;,&quot;action&quot;:null,&quot;class&quot;:null}" data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton"><a class="button primary" href="https://www.theidpshow.com/p/2026-idp-fantasy-football-projections-rankings"><span>2026 IDP Projections</span></a></p><div id="youtube2--yLYXBQCLeU" class="youtube-wrap" data-attrs="{&quot;videoId&quot;:&quot;-yLYXBQCLeU&quot;,&quot;startTime&quot;:null,&quot;endTime&quot;:null}" data-component-name="Youtube2ToDOM"><div class="youtube-inner"><iframe src="https://www.youtube-nocookie.com/embed/-yLYXBQCLeU?rel=0&amp;autoplay=0&amp;showinfo=0&amp;enablejsapi=0" frameborder="0" loading="lazy" gesture="media" allow="autoplay; fullscreen" allowautoplay="true" allowfullscreen="true" width="728" height="409"></iframe></div></div><div><hr></div><h1>Tier 1: The Sinister Six</h1><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!tIPs!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe1960bb7-4320-432b-b696-58a9fc09f49b_2012x936.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!tIPs!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe1960bb7-4320-432b-b696-58a9fc09f49b_2012x936.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!tIPs!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe1960bb7-4320-432b-b696-58a9fc09f49b_2012x936.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!tIPs!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe1960bb7-4320-432b-b696-58a9fc09f49b_2012x936.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!tIPs!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe1960bb7-4320-432b-b696-58a9fc09f49b_2012x936.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!tIPs!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe1960bb7-4320-432b-b696-58a9fc09f49b_2012x936.png" width="1456" height="677" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/e1960bb7-4320-432b-b696-58a9fc09f49b_2012x936.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:677,&quot;width&quot;:1456,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:324531,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:false,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://www.theidpshow.com/i/199376094?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe1960bb7-4320-432b-b696-58a9fc09f49b_2012x936.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!tIPs!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe1960bb7-4320-432b-b696-58a9fc09f49b_2012x936.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!tIPs!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe1960bb7-4320-432b-b696-58a9fc09f49b_2012x936.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!tIPs!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe1960bb7-4320-432b-b696-58a9fc09f49b_2012x936.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!tIPs!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe1960bb7-4320-432b-b696-58a9fc09f49b_2012x936.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg aria-hidden="true" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>The elite edge defenders are very familiar faces to IDP managers, and regardless of which one you choose to join your squad, there&#8217;s plenty of reason to believe that they will continue to produce at that expected elite level. The players in this tier are unlikely to change or get shuffled, barring any major news this offseason, leaving Tier 1 untouched in these updates.</p><p>Myles Garrett is going to be the clear favorite to be drafted as IDP1 this season after breaking the NFL sack record in 2025 and pacing the rest of the competition in IDP scoring as a result. And after just <a href="https://youtu.be/3M_M32vk-Nk?si=Pi3BpKgysa6fyXWY">getting traded to the Los Angeles Rams</a>(!), it&#8217;s getting increasingly more difficult to argue his spot at the top of the ranks. Considering the elite pass rusher that Garrett has been for his entire NFL career, showing no real signs of slowing down, and now joining a better defensive line to create more disruption, with a better secondary to allow more time to get to the passer, and just a better overall team to get a shot to rush the passer more, another 20-plus-sack season is within his range of outcomes again. Originally, when I published these rankings while Garrett was still on the Browns, I had him as ED3, trying to be realistic about his outcome this year, but for all the reasons I laid out, joining the Rams makes him that much more dangerous as a pass rusher.</p><p>Aidan Hutchinson gets the nod as ED2 for me this year as a pass rusher still in his prime and now two years removed from a gruesome leg injury that cost him most of the 2024 season. In his first year back from injury in 2025, Hutchinson showed no noticeable signs of decline, earning top-five grades from PFF both overall (91.8) and as a pass rusher (92.1). This resulted in him leading his position in defensive snaps (1,005), finishing as a top-6 IDP, and regaining his place atop the <a href="https://www.theidpshow.com/p/idp-production-vs-expected-database">Expected Sacks</a> leaderboard for the year. Improved health and positive regression as a tackler alone should be enough to catapult Hutchinson into a top scorer for his position once again this year, and considering where he&#8217;s at in his career, there&#8217;s even room to grow in the sack column as well.</p><p>Much like with the <a href="https://www.theidpshow.com/p/2026-idp-dynasty-rankings-and-tiers-fantasyfootball">dynasty rankings</a>, Will Anderson Jr. and Hutchinson are neck and neck near the top, with very little separating the two. I&#8217;d have no quarrels about IDP managers choosing Anderson over Hutchinson, since I don&#8217;t think you can go wrong with either in this situation. Both are coming off ED1 seasons, are guaranteed high-end playing time, and have proven to be among the best pass rushers in the NFL, creating elite ceilings for both. Helping Anderson&#8217;s case is that he proved to be a better tackler than Hutchinson in 2025, earning a 97th percentile mark in Tackles versus Expected (+11.8), showing he could do more with his opportunities to create a potentially better production floor.</p><p>I can pretty much guarantee that Nick Bosa will be drafted later than his current ED4 ranking, largely because he is coming off another ACL injury that cost him all but two full games in 2025. And what a glorious two full games they were, as he averaged top-five IDP production for his position, but alas, it was short-lived. With essentially a full year to recover, Bosa is <a href="https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/48904921/49ers-bosa-making-progress-back-training-camp">on track to return in time for training camp</a> and ideally pick up where he left off. Now, there&#8217;s going to be some injury-tendency baked into his ADP, and potentially his production at the start of the year, but Bosa has been one of the more resilient players in his career, typically proving more than capable of bouncing back without missing a step. That&#8217;ll be the hope here for an elite pass rusher and really strong tackler at the position, where IDP managers may end up getting him at a value with his <a href="https://www.theidpshow.com/p/2026-idp-best-ball-adp-fantasy-football">current ADP sitting at ED7</a>.</p><p>Speaking of elite producers, Maxx Crosby has been an IDP machine in recent years, delivering top-tier sack production and high-end tackle numbers. While he&#8217;s been a little more banged up as of late, you can all but guarantee that when he&#8217;s active on gameday, we&#8217;re looking at 95-plus percent of defensive snaps to work with. Even with a slight dip in pass-rushing metrics over the past two seasons, he&#8217;s still a top threat to get to the passer, and combined with unprecedented playing time for the position, he&#8217;ll be locked into this top tier for at least another season.</p><p>Lastly, T.J. Watt rounds out the rest of Tier 1, and much like Crosby, we have seen a dip in underlying pass-rush metrics for Watt over these past couple of seasons, most notably delivering just a 75.5 pass-rush grade in 2025, which ranked outside the top-25 at his position, and far from his norm. However, like Crosby, Watt hasn&#8217;t stopped delivering elite IDP production when he&#8217;s on the field. In 2025, despite missing three games, he averaged <a href="https://www.theidpshow.com/p/big-3-idp-scoring-leaders">14.3 points per game</a> &#8212; good for ED6 in that regard. If Watt is healthy, he has just as high a ceiling as any player in this tier, and when we&#8217;re looking for that upside to win fantasy championships, Watt remains in the conversation for another year.</p>
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   ]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[2026 IDP Breakout Candidates: Linebackers]]></title><description><![CDATA[Identify the linebackers poised for a fantasy football breakout, with advanced IDP analysis and key metrics.]]></description><link>https://www.theidpshow.com/p/2026-idp-breakout-candidates-linebackers-fantasy-football</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.theidpshow.com/p/2026-idp-breakout-candidates-linebackers-fantasy-football</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Jon Macri]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Wed, 15 Jul 2026 13:03:13 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!EED0!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fea6a1ee7-98cb-4a55-bc42-88cc837012e3_1492x1054.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!EED0!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fea6a1ee7-98cb-4a55-bc42-88cc837012e3_1492x1054.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!EED0!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fea6a1ee7-98cb-4a55-bc42-88cc837012e3_1492x1054.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!EED0!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fea6a1ee7-98cb-4a55-bc42-88cc837012e3_1492x1054.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!EED0!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fea6a1ee7-98cb-4a55-bc42-88cc837012e3_1492x1054.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!EED0!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fea6a1ee7-98cb-4a55-bc42-88cc837012e3_1492x1054.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!EED0!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fea6a1ee7-98cb-4a55-bc42-88cc837012e3_1492x1054.png" width="1456" height="1029" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/ea6a1ee7-98cb-4a55-bc42-88cc837012e3_1492x1054.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:1029,&quot;width&quot;:1456,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:2132937,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:false,&quot;topImage&quot;:true,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://www.theidpshow.com/i/206472549?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fea6a1ee7-98cb-4a55-bc42-88cc837012e3_1492x1054.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!EED0!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fea6a1ee7-98cb-4a55-bc42-88cc837012e3_1492x1054.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!EED0!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fea6a1ee7-98cb-4a55-bc42-88cc837012e3_1492x1054.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!EED0!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fea6a1ee7-98cb-4a55-bc42-88cc837012e3_1492x1054.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!EED0!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fea6a1ee7-98cb-4a55-bc42-88cc837012e3_1492x1054.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" fetchpriority="high"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg aria-hidden="true" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>Each season, players take their games to new levels and significantly improve their fantasy football production along the way. </p><p>The linebacker position for IDP often relies on snaps, and that is going to be a key factor when looking at this year&#8217;s breakout candidates.</p><p><strong>Notes:</strong></p><ul><li><p><em>A significant jump in overall fantasy finish or fantasy points per game is expected, not just an incremental improvement.</em></p></li><li><p><em>We&#8217;re looking for over 12.0 points per game in 2026.</em></p></li><li><p><em>No rookies.</em></p></li><li><p><em>Referenced Big-3 Scoring can be found <a href="https://www.theidpshow.com/p/big-3-scoring">here</a>.</em></p></li></ul><div><hr></div><div class="subscription-widget-wrap-editor" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://www.theidpshow.com/subscribe?&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Subscribe&quot;,&quot;language&quot;:&quot;en&quot;}" data-component-name="SubscribeWidgetToDOM"><div class="subscription-widget show-subscribe"><div class="preamble"><p class="cta-caption">This Substack is reader-supported. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.</p></div><form class="subscription-widget-subscribe"><input type="email" class="email-input" name="email" placeholder="Type your email&#8230;" tabindex="-1"><input type="submit" class="button primary" value="Subscribe"><div class="fake-input-wrapper"><div class="fake-input"></div><div class="fake-button"></div></div></form></div></div><div><hr></div><h1>Jihaad Campbell, Philadelphia Eagles</h1><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!c-lX!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7e8db22b-f5e5-43e7-b7df-add6f5cabd8f_950x522.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!c-lX!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7e8db22b-f5e5-43e7-b7df-add6f5cabd8f_950x522.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!c-lX!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7e8db22b-f5e5-43e7-b7df-add6f5cabd8f_950x522.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!c-lX!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7e8db22b-f5e5-43e7-b7df-add6f5cabd8f_950x522.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!c-lX!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7e8db22b-f5e5-43e7-b7df-add6f5cabd8f_950x522.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!c-lX!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7e8db22b-f5e5-43e7-b7df-add6f5cabd8f_950x522.png" width="950" height="522" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/7e8db22b-f5e5-43e7-b7df-add6f5cabd8f_950x522.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:522,&quot;width&quot;:950,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:117446,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://www.theidpshow.com/i/206472549?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7e8db22b-f5e5-43e7-b7df-add6f5cabd8f_950x522.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!c-lX!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7e8db22b-f5e5-43e7-b7df-add6f5cabd8f_950x522.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!c-lX!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7e8db22b-f5e5-43e7-b7df-add6f5cabd8f_950x522.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!c-lX!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7e8db22b-f5e5-43e7-b7df-add6f5cabd8f_950x522.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!c-lX!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7e8db22b-f5e5-43e7-b7df-add6f5cabd8f_950x522.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg aria-hidden="true" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>Campbell was a highly touted prospect coming into his rookie season, earning first-round draft capital out of Alabama and scoring in the 95th percentile in my prospect model. There was one holdup when it came to his immediate IDP potential, which was that Nakobe Dean was likely going to return to the Eagles lineup at some point in 2025, which would have muddied Campbell&#8217;s playing time and IDP production. After starting the first seven weeks of the year, averaging 94% of the team&#8217;s defensive snaps, Dean did, in fact, return, which cut Campbell&#8217;s playing time down to 33% of snaps over his next seven games. Step 1 toward a breakout season for Campbell is Dean moving on from the team, leaving the runway clear for Campbell to once again assume a full-time role in Vic Fangio&#8217;s defense.</p><p>As mentioned at the top, high-end playing time is essential for linebackers to produce IDP-relevant numbers, and Campbell is clearly set for a much larger and more consistent role in Year 2. The next step for Campbell to elevate his game is to be more efficient with his opportunities than he was in 2025, as he managed just a 26th-percentile mark in <a href="https://www.theidpshow.com/p/idp-production-vs-expected-database">Tackles versus Expected</a> and didn&#8217;t deliver a single sack, despite solid pass-rush metrics and a high 13% blitz rate. That usage isn&#8217;t typically great for tackle efficiency, but Campbell should at least be able to make up for that deficiency with more luck in the sack column. Our <a href="https://www.theidpshow.com/p/2026-idp-fantasy-football-projections-rankings">IDP projections</a> have Campbell close to three sacks on the year, on top of reasonable tackle production &#8212; good for LB24 with his new role this season.</p><p>Should Campbell improve even marginally as a tackler to go along with an every-down role and positive regression in the sack column, he should be no worse than an IDP LB2 this season. With great luck in the sack column and an above-average tackle rate, there&#8217;s significantly more upside to target for a sure-to-be breakout season. </p><div><hr></div><h1>Barrett Carter, Cincinnati Bengals</h1><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!SL78!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F4a49362c-be1d-4886-b883-f1a7e019dfce_950x522.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!SL78!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F4a49362c-be1d-4886-b883-f1a7e019dfce_950x522.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!SL78!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F4a49362c-be1d-4886-b883-f1a7e019dfce_950x522.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!SL78!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F4a49362c-be1d-4886-b883-f1a7e019dfce_950x522.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!SL78!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F4a49362c-be1d-4886-b883-f1a7e019dfce_950x522.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!SL78!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F4a49362c-be1d-4886-b883-f1a7e019dfce_950x522.png" width="950" height="522" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/4a49362c-be1d-4886-b883-f1a7e019dfce_950x522.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:522,&quot;width&quot;:950,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:111869,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://www.theidpshow.com/i/206472549?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F4a49362c-be1d-4886-b883-f1a7e019dfce_950x522.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!SL78!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F4a49362c-be1d-4886-b883-f1a7e019dfce_950x522.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!SL78!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F4a49362c-be1d-4886-b883-f1a7e019dfce_950x522.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!SL78!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F4a49362c-be1d-4886-b883-f1a7e019dfce_950x522.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!SL78!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F4a49362c-be1d-4886-b883-f1a7e019dfce_950x522.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg aria-hidden="true" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>Carter spent just over a month of his rookie season playing the LB3 role in Cincinnati&#8217;s defense before the team decided to make a major change away from Logan Wilson, crowning Carter as the team&#8217;s lone every-down linebacker. While Carter&#8217;s level of play in Year 1 was suspect at best, ranking near the bottom-100 players at his position in all the key PFF grading categories, it says a lot that the team didn&#8217;t add to the position this offseason, leaving Carter primed to be the team&#8217;s green-dot linebacker once again in 2026.</p><p>Carter was not necessarily the most effective IDP in his full-time role, averaging just under 9.0 points per game once he took over as a full-time player. We&#8217;ll be betting on some progression as both an NFL starter and as an IDP for him to deliver a true breakout season here in Year 2, which will almost certainly bank on better play in run defense, where he finished just 12th percentile in <a href="https://www.theidpshow.com/p/idp-production-vs-expected-database">Tackles versus Expected</a> against the run, despite an elite 95th percentile mark in that regard on passing downs. Carter was picked on quite a bit by opposing NFL passing offenses, and that isn&#8217;t likely to change in 2026, which gives me hope that he&#8217;ll continue to get strong tackle opportunities in that regard. If he&#8217;s able to clean up the missed tackles and be in a better position on run downs, that will certainly help him deliver the higher tackle rates we&#8217;re looking for in our starting IDP linebackers.</p><p>Carter isn&#8217;t the sexiest IDP option, but given that the Bengals have no other options to play that every-down role, and the fact that he&#8217;s being <a href="https://www.theidpshow.com/p/2026-idp-best-ball-adp-fantasy-football">drafted as LB45</a> right now, he becomes an easy choice to scoop up and bank on a breakout season.</p><div><hr></div><h1>Drake Thomas, Seattle Seahawks</h1><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!4zX7!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F25793c65-0794-49f3-98c2-b7452db14b9a_5704x3102.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!4zX7!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F25793c65-0794-49f3-98c2-b7452db14b9a_5704x3102.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!4zX7!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F25793c65-0794-49f3-98c2-b7452db14b9a_5704x3102.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!4zX7!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F25793c65-0794-49f3-98c2-b7452db14b9a_5704x3102.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!4zX7!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F25793c65-0794-49f3-98c2-b7452db14b9a_5704x3102.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!4zX7!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F25793c65-0794-49f3-98c2-b7452db14b9a_5704x3102.png" width="1456" height="792" 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srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!4zX7!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F25793c65-0794-49f3-98c2-b7452db14b9a_5704x3102.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!4zX7!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F25793c65-0794-49f3-98c2-b7452db14b9a_5704x3102.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!4zX7!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F25793c65-0794-49f3-98c2-b7452db14b9a_5704x3102.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!4zX7!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F25793c65-0794-49f3-98c2-b7452db14b9a_5704x3102.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg aria-hidden="true" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>Thomas emerged seemingly out of nowhere last season, after spending the first two years of his career as a special teamer and barely sniffing the field on defense. Thomas took over for an injured Tyrice Knight in Week 6 of last season, and with Knight continuously managing several injuries, Thomas took that job and never looked back. It wasn&#8217;t a full-time role for Thomas as the Seahawks&#8217; LB2, but it was enough that he was able to show some promise as an IDP and create some hope, especially after earning a two-year contract extension with the team this offseason.</p><p>Thomas&#8217; snap shares in his first year as a starter were up and down, and that carried over into the NFL Playoffs and the Super Bowl. There were several weeks in the middle of the year, including when Ernest Jones missed some time, where Thomas was playing a near-every-down role, and even if it&#8217;s not a 90-plus percent snap share in 2026, we&#8217;ll be looking for something resembling that of the second half of last regular season (77%). If Thomas can maintain that 80ish-percent snap share as his floor, he should find himself delivering more consistent tackle numbers.</p><p>Thomas&#8217; tackle production is the reason he was only LB45 in points per game last season, despite recording three sacks and other big plays that would have pushed him higher up the standings. Thomas finished in just the 20th percentile in <a href="https://www.theidpshow.com/p/idp-production-vs-expected-database">Tackles versus Expected</a> last season, which will need to improve for a breakout year, especially if his big plays regress in any way. Considering the new contract and the need at LB2, Thomas should be in a good spot for a better and more consistent IDP season in 2026.</p><div id="youtube2-j3jh2MBJms8" class="youtube-wrap" data-attrs="{&quot;videoId&quot;:&quot;j3jh2MBJms8&quot;,&quot;startTime&quot;:null,&quot;endTime&quot;:null}" data-component-name="Youtube2ToDOM"><div class="youtube-inner"><iframe src="https://www.youtube-nocookie.com/embed/j3jh2MBJms8?rel=0&amp;autoplay=0&amp;showinfo=0&amp;enablejsapi=0" frameborder="0" loading="lazy" gesture="media" allow="autoplay; fullscreen" allowautoplay="true" allowfullscreen="true" width="728" height="409"></iframe></div></div><div><hr></div><h1>Payton Wilson, Pittsburgh Steelers</h1><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!9ylV!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ffe2d20af-5e08-4e52-beb2-8fca4abc2fc5_5704x3102.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!9ylV!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ffe2d20af-5e08-4e52-beb2-8fca4abc2fc5_5704x3102.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!9ylV!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ffe2d20af-5e08-4e52-beb2-8fca4abc2fc5_5704x3102.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!9ylV!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ffe2d20af-5e08-4e52-beb2-8fca4abc2fc5_5704x3102.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!9ylV!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ffe2d20af-5e08-4e52-beb2-8fca4abc2fc5_5704x3102.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!9ylV!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ffe2d20af-5e08-4e52-beb2-8fca4abc2fc5_5704x3102.png" width="1456" height="792" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/fe2d20af-5e08-4e52-beb2-8fca4abc2fc5_5704x3102.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:792,&quot;width&quot;:1456,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:2091471,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://www.theidpshow.com/i/206472549?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ffe2d20af-5e08-4e52-beb2-8fca4abc2fc5_5704x3102.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!9ylV!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ffe2d20af-5e08-4e52-beb2-8fca4abc2fc5_5704x3102.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!9ylV!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ffe2d20af-5e08-4e52-beb2-8fca4abc2fc5_5704x3102.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!9ylV!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ffe2d20af-5e08-4e52-beb2-8fca4abc2fc5_5704x3102.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!9ylV!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ffe2d20af-5e08-4e52-beb2-8fca4abc2fc5_5704x3102.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg aria-hidden="true" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>Okay, get ready, because it&#8217;s time to inhale a near-fatal amount of hopium one last time. It&#8217;s now been two years of Payton Wilson proving to be the better player and more effective IDP than his teammate and Steelers&#8217; LB1 Patrick Queen, so eventually it&#8217;s going to lead to the Steelers coaching staff recognizing that they&#8217;re better off with Wilson playing more snaps, right? With an entirely new coaching staff coming in and no loyalty to either player, maybe this is the year that Wilson plays a full-time role (I warned you that there&#8217;d be hopium involved).</p><p>So let&#8217;s make the case for Wilson once again. Or more accurately, the case against Queen, who has continuously struggled as an NFL starter. Even though Wilson did not score as well on PFF grades as he did in his rookie season, he still outperformed Queen across the board. This was the case in 2024 as well. Queen finished with a bottom-five missed tackle rate (21.2%) and coverage grade (31.3) for the position in 2025, and after his first-round capital has bought him six years of leeway, at some point enough is going to be enough. Ideally, that starts with the Steelers giving Wilson more run as an every-down player, even if both he and Queen remain on the field at the same time, to better shore up the significant tackling issues at the second level of the defense.</p><p>If Patrick Graham and company are more willing to play Wilson at a higher rate, we should easily see him clear Queen as an IDP as well. Queen played 379 more defensive snaps than Wilson in 2025, and Wilson <em>still</em> outperformed him as an IDP, finishing as LB30 in Big-30 scoring compared to Queen&#8217;s LB32. Now picture the two with the same amount of snaps. <span>Wilson has been an elite tackler at the position since entering the league, finishing in the 93rd percentile as a rookie and in the 97th percentile last year in&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.theidpshow.com/p/idp-production-vs-expected-database"><span>Tackles versus Expected</span></a><span>.</span> There&#8217;s too much potential there for me to ignore, even if the Pittsburgh coaching staff has continued to do so. But one more time, let&#8217;s pray to the football gods for the sake of my own sanity that we get more Wilson and less Queen in 2026.</p><div><hr></div><p><em>Be sure to subscribe to The IDP Show on <a href="https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-idp-show/id1473735209"><span>Apple</span></a>, <a href="https://open.spotify.com/show/7Ikx5jmKhLav0zXRrdHfvM?si=8a4c3df330e54661"><span>Spotify</span></a>, or <a href="https://www.youtube.com/@theidpshow"><span>YouTube</span></a>.</em></p><p><em>You can follow us on all our social media channels, including <a href="https://x.com/theidpshow"><span>Twitter</span></a></em> <em>and <a href="https://www.instagram.com/theidpshow?igsh=eTNqM3ZubDNobHZw&amp;utm_source=qr"><span>Instagram</span></a>.</em></p>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[2026 IDP Breakout Candidates: Defensive Linemen]]></title><description><![CDATA[Identify the defensive linemen poised for a fantasy football breakout, with advanced IDP analysis and key metrics.]]></description><link>https://www.theidpshow.com/p/2026-idp-breakout-candidates-defensive-line-fantasy-football</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.theidpshow.com/p/2026-idp-breakout-candidates-defensive-line-fantasy-football</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Jon Macri]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Tue, 14 Jul 2026 13:03:56 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!zNND!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F77966080-6cda-4bf3-9eb7-0305254c6814_1484x1060.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!zNND!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F77966080-6cda-4bf3-9eb7-0305254c6814_1484x1060.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!zNND!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F77966080-6cda-4bf3-9eb7-0305254c6814_1484x1060.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!zNND!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F77966080-6cda-4bf3-9eb7-0305254c6814_1484x1060.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!zNND!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F77966080-6cda-4bf3-9eb7-0305254c6814_1484x1060.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!zNND!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F77966080-6cda-4bf3-9eb7-0305254c6814_1484x1060.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img 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srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!zNND!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F77966080-6cda-4bf3-9eb7-0305254c6814_1484x1060.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!zNND!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F77966080-6cda-4bf3-9eb7-0305254c6814_1484x1060.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!zNND!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F77966080-6cda-4bf3-9eb7-0305254c6814_1484x1060.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!zNND!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F77966080-6cda-4bf3-9eb7-0305254c6814_1484x1060.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" fetchpriority="high"></picture><div 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stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>Each season, players take their game to new levels and significantly improve their fantasy production along the way. </p><p>The defensive linemen so often depend on sacks in order to deliver a true breakout season, and while there is going to be some focus on that here, tackles and playing time are also incredibly important for IDP and need to be factored in.</p><p>This is also a position where patience, data, and projections play a much bigger role in determining when to expect breakout seasons, and they will be taken into account when compiling this list.</p><p><strong>Notes:</strong></p><ul><li><p><em>A significant jump in overall fantasy finish or fantasy points per game is expected, not just an incremental improvement.</em></p></li><li><p><em>We&#8217;re looking for over 9.0 points per game for EDGEs, and over 8.0 for DTs in 2026.</em></p></li><li><p><em>No rookies.</em></p></li><li><p><em>Referenced Big-3 Scoring can be found <a href="https://www.theidpshow.com/p/big-3-scoring">here</a>.</em></p></li></ul><div><hr></div><div class="subscription-widget-wrap-editor" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://www.theidpshow.com/subscribe?&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Subscribe&quot;,&quot;language&quot;:&quot;en&quot;}" data-component-name="SubscribeWidgetToDOM"><div class="subscription-widget show-subscribe"><div class="preamble"><p class="cta-caption">This Substack is reader-supported. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.</p></div><form class="subscription-widget-subscribe"><input type="email" class="email-input" name="email" placeholder="Type your email&#8230;" tabindex="-1"><input type="submit" class="button primary" value="Subscribe"><div class="fake-input-wrapper"><div class="fake-input"></div><div class="fake-button"></div></div></form></div></div><div><hr></div><h1>Dallas Turner, Minnesota Vikings</h1><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!znkl!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8a00bb57-20f4-4e38-8183-1b89d2a34454_949x523.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!znkl!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8a00bb57-20f4-4e38-8183-1b89d2a34454_949x523.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!znkl!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8a00bb57-20f4-4e38-8183-1b89d2a34454_949x523.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!znkl!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8a00bb57-20f4-4e38-8183-1b89d2a34454_949x523.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!znkl!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8a00bb57-20f4-4e38-8183-1b89d2a34454_949x523.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!znkl!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8a00bb57-20f4-4e38-8183-1b89d2a34454_949x523.png" width="949" height="523" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/8a00bb57-20f4-4e38-8183-1b89d2a34454_949x523.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:523,&quot;width&quot;:949,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:125828,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://www.theidpshow.com/i/206450258?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8a00bb57-20f4-4e38-8183-1b89d2a34454_949x523.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!znkl!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8a00bb57-20f4-4e38-8183-1b89d2a34454_949x523.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!znkl!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8a00bb57-20f4-4e38-8183-1b89d2a34454_949x523.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!znkl!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8a00bb57-20f4-4e38-8183-1b89d2a34454_949x523.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!znkl!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8a00bb57-20f4-4e38-8183-1b89d2a34454_949x523.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg aria-hidden="true" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>Turner is one of the more obvious names at the position to break out, especially considering that IDP managers are drafting him as the overall ED16 at the moment, as we all expect a big leap in value. While nothing is a guarantee when it comes to fantasy football, Turner feels like a relatively safe bet to make considering that everything we&#8217;re looking for to line up for a breakout season has been taking shape this offseason.</p><p>Starting with the Vikings trading Jonathan Greenard to the Philadelphia Eagles, a significant spot at the top of the depth chart opened up, clearing the way for Turner to play a massive role in 2026. When filling in for the injured Greenard or Andrew Van Ginkel last season, Turner played upwards of every defensive snap, typically hovering around an 80% snap share. If Turner is once again able to push for that level of playing time across an entire season, that alone should allow for a breakout year, considering he was able to produce as the overall ED27 with more sporadic playing time last year.</p><p>The potential playing time for Turner is the biggest key to unlock his breakout season; however, entering Year 3, we should also expect to see a jump in his underlying pass-rush metrics. Turner was undeniably a project prospect coming out of college, but these third and fourth NFL seasons are typically where we should start to see his potential come to fruition. If Turner is able to take another leap as a pass rusher, improving his PFF pass-rush grade and Expected Sacks standing, IDP managers should have a lot more faith that he can maintain his spot in the starting lineup and continue to produce at a high level for years to come.</p><div><hr></div><h1>Abdul Carter, New York Giants</h1><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!TsBJ!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F14d1b85b-bb24-4635-bb9c-d4894120e06d_950x522.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!TsBJ!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F14d1b85b-bb24-4635-bb9c-d4894120e06d_950x522.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!TsBJ!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F14d1b85b-bb24-4635-bb9c-d4894120e06d_950x522.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!TsBJ!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F14d1b85b-bb24-4635-bb9c-d4894120e06d_950x522.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!TsBJ!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F14d1b85b-bb24-4635-bb9c-d4894120e06d_950x522.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!TsBJ!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F14d1b85b-bb24-4635-bb9c-d4894120e06d_950x522.png" width="950" height="522" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/14d1b85b-bb24-4635-bb9c-d4894120e06d_950x522.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:522,&quot;width&quot;:950,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:114369,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://www.theidpshow.com/i/206450258?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F14d1b85b-bb24-4635-bb9c-d4894120e06d_950x522.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!TsBJ!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F14d1b85b-bb24-4635-bb9c-d4894120e06d_950x522.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!TsBJ!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F14d1b85b-bb24-4635-bb9c-d4894120e06d_950x522.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!TsBJ!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F14d1b85b-bb24-4635-bb9c-d4894120e06d_950x522.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!TsBJ!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F14d1b85b-bb24-4635-bb9c-d4894120e06d_950x522.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg aria-hidden="true" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>Carter, much like the previously mentioned Turner, is a very clear option to make the breakout list this season, coming off an impressive rookie season. Carter already had high expectations as an IDP, given that he was the third overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft with an elite college prospect profile. Carter did not disappoint in Year 1, surpassing Kayvon Thibodeaux on the depth chart and delivering a top-10 PFF pass-rush grade, ultimately finishing in the 93rd percentile in <a href="https://www.theidpshow.com/p/idp-production-vs-expected-database">Expected Sacks</a>.</p><p>Somehow, despite Carter&#8217;s high-end play in Year 1, he was rewarded with just four total sacks on the season. While that&#8217;s a frustrating number for a player who played so well, this also means that he&#8217;s a prime positive regression candidate in the sack column this season. In fact, according to <a href="https://www.theidpshow.com/p/idp-production-vs-expected-database">Sacks versus Expected</a>, Carter is the most prime candidate for positive regression, making him all the more enticing for IDP. Carter was able to finish as the ED31 as a rookie without deserved sack totals, and if he&#8217;s able to push for double-digit sacks as his underlying metrics tend to say, then there&#8217;s no reason he can&#8217;t be a fringe ED1 in Year 2.</p><p>The one area where Carter will have to improve is as a tackler, finishing just 9th percentile in <a href="https://www.theidpshow.com/p/idp-production-vs-expected-database">Tackles versus Expected</a> as a rookie, though with more stable playing time and another year of development in the NFL, that will ideally come naturally. IDP managers are already optimistic that Carter will deliver in Year 2, drafting him as the <a href="https://www.theidpshow.com/p/2026-idp-best-ball-adp-fantasy-football">overall ED12</a> right now, hence why he&#8217;s a more obvious breakout candidate. All things considered, with how well he played as a rookie and the elite prospect profile to back him up, expectations are deservedly high for the promising young edge defender.</p><div><hr></div><h1>Chop Robinson, Miami Dolphins</h1><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!IaNJ!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff8fe8f38-9210-4a6d-ac84-358521826bd3_949x523.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!IaNJ!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff8fe8f38-9210-4a6d-ac84-358521826bd3_949x523.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!IaNJ!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff8fe8f38-9210-4a6d-ac84-358521826bd3_949x523.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!IaNJ!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff8fe8f38-9210-4a6d-ac84-358521826bd3_949x523.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!IaNJ!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff8fe8f38-9210-4a6d-ac84-358521826bd3_949x523.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!IaNJ!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff8fe8f38-9210-4a6d-ac84-358521826bd3_949x523.png" width="949" height="523" 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srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!IaNJ!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff8fe8f38-9210-4a6d-ac84-358521826bd3_949x523.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!IaNJ!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff8fe8f38-9210-4a6d-ac84-358521826bd3_949x523.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!IaNJ!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff8fe8f38-9210-4a6d-ac84-358521826bd3_949x523.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!IaNJ!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff8fe8f38-9210-4a6d-ac84-358521826bd3_949x523.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg aria-hidden="true" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>Many IDP managers had high hopes for Robinson heading into last season, following a promising rookie season. Unfortunately, there were red flags regarding his Year 2 potential, including a likely lack of playing time behind returning Jaelan Phillips and Bradley Chubb. Not only did those concerns prove valid, but they also significantly hindered Robinson&#8217;s development, as he was unable to find his footing and improve as a pass rusher, resulting in a massively disappointing season, even with tempered expectations.</p><p>Heading into Year 3, while expectations are still slightly tempered considering how poorly Year 2 went, there&#8217;s certainly still hope for Robinson considering his potential and prospect profile coming out of college. Robinson earned a 97th percentile score in my <a href="https://www.theidpshow.com/p/the-idp-show-prospect-models-rookies-fantasy-football">prospect model</a> coming out of Penn State. On top of what he showed in Year 1, finishing top-20 at his position in PFF pass-rush grade and 87th percentile in <a href="https://www.theidpshow.com/p/idp-production-vs-expected-database">Expected Sacks</a>, there&#8217;s untapped potential with Robinson as a pass rusher. </p><p>Development is rarely linear in the NFL, and for defensive linemen in particular, Years 3 and 4 are the best indicators of whether a player will be worth making our IDP lineups. The combination of Robinson&#8217;s rookie season and prospect profile still has me hopeful for 2026, and with no more barriers to playing time, this season is crucial for Robinson to deliver. A full-time role and delivering on his promise as a prospect is more than enough for Robinson to get back on track with a true breakout season, and he comes with an affordable price tag as <a href="https://www.theidpshow.com/p/2026-idp-best-ball-adp-fantasy-football">ED34 in drafts</a> at the moment.</p><div id="youtube2--yLYXBQCLeU" class="youtube-wrap" data-attrs="{&quot;videoId&quot;:&quot;-yLYXBQCLeU&quot;,&quot;startTime&quot;:null,&quot;endTime&quot;:null}" data-component-name="Youtube2ToDOM"><div class="youtube-inner"><iframe src="https://www.youtube-nocookie.com/embed/-yLYXBQCLeU?rel=0&amp;autoplay=0&amp;showinfo=0&amp;enablejsapi=0" frameborder="0" loading="lazy" gesture="media" allow="autoplay; fullscreen" allowautoplay="true" allowfullscreen="true" width="728" height="409"></iframe></div></div><div><hr></div><h1>T&#8217;Vondre Sweat, New York Jets</h1><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!59yc!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb0e4bb51-b6a9-4840-b841-944d04f0ac6d_5704x3102.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!59yc!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb0e4bb51-b6a9-4840-b841-944d04f0ac6d_5704x3102.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!59yc!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb0e4bb51-b6a9-4840-b841-944d04f0ac6d_5704x3102.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!59yc!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb0e4bb51-b6a9-4840-b841-944d04f0ac6d_5704x3102.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!59yc!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb0e4bb51-b6a9-4840-b841-944d04f0ac6d_5704x3102.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!59yc!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb0e4bb51-b6a9-4840-b841-944d04f0ac6d_5704x3102.png" width="1456" height="792" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/b0e4bb51-b6a9-4840-b841-944d04f0ac6d_5704x3102.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:792,&quot;width&quot;:1456,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:2280806,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://www.theidpshow.com/i/206450258?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb0e4bb51-b6a9-4840-b841-944d04f0ac6d_5704x3102.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!59yc!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb0e4bb51-b6a9-4840-b841-944d04f0ac6d_5704x3102.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!59yc!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb0e4bb51-b6a9-4840-b841-944d04f0ac6d_5704x3102.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!59yc!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb0e4bb51-b6a9-4840-b841-944d04f0ac6d_5704x3102.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!59yc!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb0e4bb51-b6a9-4840-b841-944d04f0ac6d_5704x3102.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg aria-hidden="true" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>I felt it important to include at least one defensive tackle on this list, and Sweat might be my personal favorite to deliver a breakout IDP season at the position in 2026 (Walter Nolen was a close second). Sweat has had a relatively quiet start to his NFL career, but like many on this list, he could really start to make some noise for IDP heading into Year 3, and getting traded to the Jets this offseason might be the move needed to unlock that potential. If Sweat remained with the Tennessee Titans this season, he would have had to contend with both Jeffery Simmons and John Franklin-Myers for snaps along the interior defensive line, but in New York, his path to snaps is much clearer.</p><p>Increased playing time is huge for Sweat as he&#8217;s coming off a really encouraging second season that saw him earn the sixth-best overall PFF grade and the sixth-best run defense grade at the position. He added a very solid 74.1 pass-rush grade, which points to a well-balanced player with enough pass-rush potential to become worthy of making IDP starting lineups at some point in the near future. Helping matters is that Sweat should come with a solid enough production floor, given his playing time and 88th-percentile mark in <a href="https://www.theidpshow.com/p/idp-production-vs-expected-database">Tackles versus Expected</a> last season, which should create much less volatility in his IDP production.</p><p>Sweat also came out of Texas with a solid <span>90th-percentile&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.theidpshow.com/p/the-idp-show-prospect-models-rookies-fantasy-football"><span>prospect model score</span></a><span>&nbsp;to back up his potential for IDP,&nbsp;</span>heading into a crucial Year 3 of his development. Sweat is also a free pick in drafts at the moment, being drafted as the overall DT29/DL121, making it low risk to invest in his potential this season. Sweat getting a significantly new career high in playing time and building on the promising early start to his career are key ingredients for a true breakout IDP season in 2026.</p><div><hr></div><p><em>Be sure to subscribe to The IDP Show on <a href="https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-idp-show/id1473735209">Apple</a>, <a href="https://open.spotify.com/show/7Ikx5jmKhLav0zXRrdHfvM?si=8a4c3df330e54661">Spotify</a>, or <a href="https://www.youtube.com/@theidpshow">YouTube</a>.</em></p><p><em>You can follow us on all our social media channels, including <a href="https://x.com/theidpshow">Twitter</a></em> <em>and <a href="https://www.instagram.com/theidpshow?igsh=eTNqM3ZubDNobHZw&amp;utm_source=qr">Instagram</a>.</em><br><br><br><br></p>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[2026 IDP Breakout Candidates: Defensive Backs]]></title><description><![CDATA[Identify the defensive backs poised for a fantasy football breakout, with advanced IDP analysis and key metrics.]]></description><link>https://www.theidpshow.com/p/2026-idp-breakout-candidates-defensive-backs-fantasy-football</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.theidpshow.com/p/2026-idp-breakout-candidates-defensive-backs-fantasy-football</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Jon Macri]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Mon, 13 Jul 2026 13:03:13 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!N-hJ!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1ffdba3b-4b67-4f7e-bb22-44df413653ac_1484x1060.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!N-hJ!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1ffdba3b-4b67-4f7e-bb22-44df413653ac_1484x1060.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!N-hJ!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1ffdba3b-4b67-4f7e-bb22-44df413653ac_1484x1060.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!N-hJ!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1ffdba3b-4b67-4f7e-bb22-44df413653ac_1484x1060.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!N-hJ!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1ffdba3b-4b67-4f7e-bb22-44df413653ac_1484x1060.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!N-hJ!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1ffdba3b-4b67-4f7e-bb22-44df413653ac_1484x1060.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!N-hJ!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1ffdba3b-4b67-4f7e-bb22-44df413653ac_1484x1060.png" width="1456" height="1040" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/1ffdba3b-4b67-4f7e-bb22-44df413653ac_1484x1060.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:1040,&quot;width&quot;:1456,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:2339304,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:false,&quot;topImage&quot;:true,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://www.theidpshow.com/i/206298461?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1ffdba3b-4b67-4f7e-bb22-44df413653ac_1484x1060.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!N-hJ!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1ffdba3b-4b67-4f7e-bb22-44df413653ac_1484x1060.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!N-hJ!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1ffdba3b-4b67-4f7e-bb22-44df413653ac_1484x1060.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!N-hJ!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1ffdba3b-4b67-4f7e-bb22-44df413653ac_1484x1060.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!N-hJ!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1ffdba3b-4b67-4f7e-bb22-44df413653ac_1484x1060.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" fetchpriority="high"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg aria-hidden="true" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>Each season, players take their game to new levels and significantly improve their fantasy production along the way. </p><p>The defensive back position for IDP often relies heavily on playing time, and that is going to factor in quite a bit for this year&#8217;s breakout candidates. To make things a bit more interesting, we&#8217;ll highlight some early-career safeties who should take a massive leap in 2026, assuming they can lock down these bigger projected roles.</p><p><strong>Notes:</strong></p><ul><li><p><em>A significant jump in overall fantasy finish or fantasy points per game is expected, not just an incremental improvement.</em></p></li><li><p><em>We&#8217;re looking for over 9.0 points per game in 2026.</em></p></li><li><p><em>No rookies.</em></p></li><li><p><em>Referenced Big-3 Scoring can be found <a href="https://www.theidpshow.com/p/big-3-scoring">here</a>.</em></p></li></ul><div><hr></div><div class="subscription-widget-wrap-editor" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://www.theidpshow.com/subscribe?&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Subscribe&quot;,&quot;language&quot;:&quot;en&quot;}" data-component-name="SubscribeWidgetToDOM"><div class="subscription-widget show-subscribe"><div class="preamble"><p class="cta-caption">This Substack is reader-supported. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.</p></div><form class="subscription-widget-subscribe"><input type="email" class="email-input" name="email" placeholder="Type your email&#8230;" tabindex="-1"><input type="submit" class="button primary" value="Subscribe"><div class="fake-input-wrapper"><div class="fake-input"></div><div class="fake-button"></div></div></form></div></div><div><hr></div><h1>Kevin Winston Jr., Tennessee Titans</h1><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Kl8L!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F92a204fe-9a66-48a9-8f77-ae98739ebf94_5704x3102.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Kl8L!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F92a204fe-9a66-48a9-8f77-ae98739ebf94_5704x3102.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Kl8L!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F92a204fe-9a66-48a9-8f77-ae98739ebf94_5704x3102.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Kl8L!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F92a204fe-9a66-48a9-8f77-ae98739ebf94_5704x3102.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Kl8L!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F92a204fe-9a66-48a9-8f77-ae98739ebf94_5704x3102.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Kl8L!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F92a204fe-9a66-48a9-8f77-ae98739ebf94_5704x3102.png" width="1456" height="792" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/92a204fe-9a66-48a9-8f77-ae98739ebf94_5704x3102.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:792,&quot;width&quot;:1456,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:2184140,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://www.theidpshow.com/i/206298461?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F92a204fe-9a66-48a9-8f77-ae98739ebf94_5704x3102.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Kl8L!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F92a204fe-9a66-48a9-8f77-ae98739ebf94_5704x3102.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Kl8L!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F92a204fe-9a66-48a9-8f77-ae98739ebf94_5704x3102.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Kl8L!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F92a204fe-9a66-48a9-8f77-ae98739ebf94_5704x3102.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Kl8L!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F92a204fe-9a66-48a9-8f77-ae98739ebf94_5704x3102.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg aria-hidden="true" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>Winston Jr. is not just one of the potential breakout safeties I&#8217;m most optimistic about heading into 2026, but already a personal favorite at the entire position heading into his second season. We only saw flashes of Winston&#8217;s IDP potential last season, but now, his role should change dramatically to allow for a more favorable IDP production across an entire season.</p><p>With Gus Bradley taking over as defensive coordinator for the Titans this season, Winston should be the favorite to step into the IDP-friendly strong safety role within that defensive scheme. For those unfamiliar, Bradley has typically deployed a very high rate of Cover-3 and single-high safety coverages, which allows one safety to spend the majority of snaps in the box and around the line of scrimmage. This was the case for Nick Cross (2024), Julian Blackmon (2023), Rodney McLeod (2022), and Johnathan Abram (2021); those are just the most recent examples. All four of those players finished no worse than <a href="https://www.theidpshow.com/p/big-3-idp-scoring-leaders"><span>top-20 IDPs</span></a><span>&nbsp;at their position, with the latest example being</span> Cross finishing as the overall S3 (2024).</p><p>That box-heavy role breeds high-end tackle efficiency, which is exactly the type of baseline we should be targeting for any safety in IDP. For Winston, specifically, if he&#8217;s able to lock down that role and deliver above expected as a tackler, which he did as a rookie playing more of a slot-heavy part-time role, then he has real top-12 IDP safety potential this season. Winston showcased above-average tackle efficiency as a rookie, and during his college career, which should only heighten expectations that he&#8217;d be able to smash in this spot, assuming he can stay healthy, which was part of the issue last year and why he played fewer than 350 snaps.</p><div><hr></div><h1>Dadrion Taylor-Demerson, Arizona Cardinals</h1><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!00Gc!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F26eb7698-581d-4c58-8435-eb5b80744499_5704x3102.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!00Gc!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F26eb7698-581d-4c58-8435-eb5b80744499_5704x3102.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!00Gc!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F26eb7698-581d-4c58-8435-eb5b80744499_5704x3102.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!00Gc!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F26eb7698-581d-4c58-8435-eb5b80744499_5704x3102.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!00Gc!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F26eb7698-581d-4c58-8435-eb5b80744499_5704x3102.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!00Gc!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F26eb7698-581d-4c58-8435-eb5b80744499_5704x3102.png" width="1456" height="792" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/26eb7698-581d-4c58-8435-eb5b80744499_5704x3102.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:792,&quot;width&quot;:1456,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:2169791,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://www.theidpshow.com/i/206298461?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F26eb7698-581d-4c58-8435-eb5b80744499_5704x3102.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!00Gc!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F26eb7698-581d-4c58-8435-eb5b80744499_5704x3102.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!00Gc!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F26eb7698-581d-4c58-8435-eb5b80744499_5704x3102.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!00Gc!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F26eb7698-581d-4c58-8435-eb5b80744499_5704x3102.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!00Gc!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F26eb7698-581d-4c58-8435-eb5b80744499_5704x3102.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg aria-hidden="true" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>Taylor-Demerson isn&#8217;t a lock to start just yet in Jalen Thompson&#8217;s vacated safety role for the Cardinals, as he&#8217;ll likely have to battle with free agent signing Andrew Wingard for that spot. However, despite more NFL experience, Wingard has typically been more of a special-teams player, aside from a couple of seasons, not usually one to play a starting role. Taylor-Demerson is currently the front-runner for this starting role in 2026, and if he can lock it down, he&#8217;ll have real IDP potential in Year 3.</p><p>While Taylor-Demerson only started two full-time games in 2025, they were promising, on top of his part-time snaps throughout the season. Taylor-Demerson posted a 94th percentile mark in <a href="https://www.theidpshow.com/p/idp-production-vs-expected-database">Tackles versus Expected</a> for his position, building on his 91st percentile finish in that regard as a rookie; also on limited snaps. Given Taylor-Demerson&#8217;s history of efficiency already in his career, he could be primed for a massive IDP season if he&#8217;s given a full-time role.</p><p>Taylor-Demerson will have to compete with Budda Baker for prime IDP territory within the Cardinals&#8217; safety deployments, but Nick Ralliss&#8217; coverage scheme has allowed both of his safeties to get work in the box, so it shouldn&#8217;t be a major concern. Last year, Jalen Thompson averaged one-third of his defensive snaps in the box, though Baker spent half of his snaps in the box, which is the real prime real estate. That being said, Taylor-Demerson&#8217;s <a href="https://www.theidpshow.com/p/idp-production-vs-expected-database">Tackles versus Expected</a> data suggests that he can overcome unideal deployments to still deliver high-end tackle totals. Considering he&#8217;s only being drafted as the S30 right now, he&#8217;s one of the safer bets to make for IDP managers targeting breakout candidates at the position.</p><div><hr></div><h1>Jonas Sanker, New Orleans Saints</h1><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!8xL7!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa5d9bbaf-7824-46fe-853a-c5af888fc8b9_5704x3102.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!8xL7!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa5d9bbaf-7824-46fe-853a-c5af888fc8b9_5704x3102.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!8xL7!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa5d9bbaf-7824-46fe-853a-c5af888fc8b9_5704x3102.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!8xL7!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa5d9bbaf-7824-46fe-853a-c5af888fc8b9_5704x3102.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!8xL7!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa5d9bbaf-7824-46fe-853a-c5af888fc8b9_5704x3102.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!8xL7!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa5d9bbaf-7824-46fe-853a-c5af888fc8b9_5704x3102.png" width="1456" height="792" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/a5d9bbaf-7824-46fe-853a-c5af888fc8b9_5704x3102.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:792,&quot;width&quot;:1456,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:2209155,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://www.theidpshow.com/i/206298461?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa5d9bbaf-7824-46fe-853a-c5af888fc8b9_5704x3102.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!8xL7!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa5d9bbaf-7824-46fe-853a-c5af888fc8b9_5704x3102.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!8xL7!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa5d9bbaf-7824-46fe-853a-c5af888fc8b9_5704x3102.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!8xL7!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa5d9bbaf-7824-46fe-853a-c5af888fc8b9_5704x3102.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!8xL7!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa5d9bbaf-7824-46fe-853a-c5af888fc8b9_5704x3102.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg aria-hidden="true" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>Sanker played more in his rookie season than any other safety on this list, taking over for the injured Julian Blackmon in Brandon Staley&#8217;s defense. Unfortunately, Sanker&#8217;s usage filling in for Blackmon meant that the large majority of his snaps were spent deep (66.5%). This is a role that didn&#8217;t suit Sanker&#8217;s style of play, considering he spent only 25% of his college snaps in a deep safety role, mostly lining up in the box (41%) and in the slot (32%). This made him much more productive and enticing as an IDP, even scoring in the 93rd percentile in my <a href="https://www.theidpshow.com/p/the-idp-show-prospect-models-rookies-fantasy-football">prospect model</a>. </p><p>Heading into Year 2, Sanker&#8217;s usage is expected to shift dramatically as he&#8217;s the front-runner to play the &#8220;star&#8221; role in the defense. This essentially means that Sanker will take over the vacated Alontae Taylor nickel corner role, which allowed him to finish as the <a href="https://www.theidpshow.com/p/big-3-idp-scoring-leaders">overall CB6</a> in IDP last season. It&#8217;s worth noting that Taylor averaged <a href="https://www.theidpshow.com/p/2025-idp-snap-shares">96% of the team&#8217;s defensive snaps</a> in that role last season, as he was able to move to outside corner in non-nickel personnel. It&#8217;s hard to know whether Sanker will be able to stay on the field in similar situations, as it&#8217;s unlikely he&#8217;ll play outside corner, but perhaps he can backfill at safety if Blackmon still isn&#8217;t fully recovered from his torn Achilles, or if the team feels he&#8217;s the better option.</p><p>Either way, Sanker&#8217;s outlook certainly has strong IDP potential this season, especially if he&#8217;s playing a near full-time role in the defense, given his more ideal deployments. With that usage, we&#8217;ll ideally see his tackle rates go up, his IDP production be more consistent, and have a great shot to outperform his current <a href="https://www.theidpshow.com/p/2026-idp-best-ball-adp-fantasy-football">S54 ADP</a> for a breakout season. </p><div id="youtube2-6UoyQ1Hy5pA" class="youtube-wrap" data-attrs="{&quot;videoId&quot;:&quot;6UoyQ1Hy5pA&quot;,&quot;startTime&quot;:null,&quot;endTime&quot;:null}" data-component-name="Youtube2ToDOM"><div class="youtube-inner"><iframe src="https://www.youtube-nocookie.com/embed/6UoyQ1Hy5pA?rel=0&amp;autoplay=0&amp;showinfo=0&amp;enablejsapi=0" frameborder="0" loading="lazy" gesture="media" allow="autoplay; fullscreen" allowautoplay="true" allowfullscreen="true" width="728" height="409"></iframe></div></div><div><hr></div><h1>Lathan Ransom, Carolina Panthers</h1><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!no-U!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fcf27ff56-5f1f-4bcb-bc62-6130872622f7_5704x3102.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!no-U!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fcf27ff56-5f1f-4bcb-bc62-6130872622f7_5704x3102.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!no-U!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fcf27ff56-5f1f-4bcb-bc62-6130872622f7_5704x3102.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!no-U!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fcf27ff56-5f1f-4bcb-bc62-6130872622f7_5704x3102.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!no-U!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fcf27ff56-5f1f-4bcb-bc62-6130872622f7_5704x3102.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!no-U!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fcf27ff56-5f1f-4bcb-bc62-6130872622f7_5704x3102.png" width="1456" height="792" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/cf27ff56-5f1f-4bcb-bc62-6130872622f7_5704x3102.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:792,&quot;width&quot;:1456,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:2396673,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://www.theidpshow.com/i/206298461?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fcf27ff56-5f1f-4bcb-bc62-6130872622f7_5704x3102.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!no-U!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fcf27ff56-5f1f-4bcb-bc62-6130872622f7_5704x3102.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!no-U!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fcf27ff56-5f1f-4bcb-bc62-6130872622f7_5704x3102.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!no-U!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fcf27ff56-5f1f-4bcb-bc62-6130872622f7_5704x3102.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!no-U!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fcf27ff56-5f1f-4bcb-bc62-6130872622f7_5704x3102.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg aria-hidden="true" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>Ransom&#8217;s breakout potential hinges on him winning one of the tougher position battles among the other options on this list, as he&#8217;ll have to contend with Nick Scott, who started every game last season and averaged 98% of the team&#8217;s defensive snaps. Scott was a solid IDP performer in his own right, but he&#8217;s also older (31), hasn&#8217;t exactly been a standout as an NFL safety, and he&#8217;s lost his starting job before (Cincinnati, 2023). If Ransom can take a step forward this offseason, building on his top-10 run-defense grade and strong overall rookie showing, the team might feel invested enough to make a shift there.</p><p>Should Ransom take on a full-time role, his underlying metrics indicate a safety who can be very productive for IDP, including a 94th-percentile mark in <a href="https://www.theidpshow.com/p/idp-production-vs-expected-database">Tackles versus Expected</a>. This will be crucial for him to maintain, considering that Tre&#8217;Von Moehrig has the box-heavy role locked down in Ejiro Evero&#8217;s defense, so it&#8217;s likely that Ransom will be forced to play the majority of his snaps from a deep safety deployment. This isn&#8217;t ideal, but knowing he can deliver above expectations as a tackler should help mitigate the deployment's drawbacks.</p><p>Ransom&#8217;s Year 2 breakout potential comes with more caveats than the rest of the names on this list, considering he&#8217;ll likely play more deep and might not even win the starting job, but for deeper leagues, he&#8217;s worth a shot with his <a href="https://www.theidpshow.com/p/2026-idp-best-ball-adp-fantasy-football">S65/DB115 ADP</a> at the moment. If his ADP was much higher, then he wouldn&#8217;t be worth the risk, but taking into account that he&#8217;s essentially free in drafts, there&#8217;s very little risk in taking a swing on him. </p><div><hr></div><p><em>Be sure to subscribe to The IDP Show on <a href="https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-idp-show/id1473735209"><span>Apple</span></a>, <a href="https://open.spotify.com/show/7Ikx5jmKhLav0zXRrdHfvM?si=8a4c3df330e54661"><span>Spotify</span></a>, or <a href="https://www.youtube.com/@theidpshow"><span>YouTube</span></a>.</em></p><p><em>You can follow us on all our social media channels, including <a href="https://x.com/theidpshow"><span>Twitter</span></a></em> <em>and <a href="https://www.instagram.com/theidpshow?igsh=eTNqM3ZubDNobHZw&amp;utm_source=qr"><span>Instagram</span></a>.</em></p>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[2025 State of IDP Report - Part 2]]></title><description><![CDATA[Leveraging data from 12,000 leagues to answer many lingering questions about scoring in IDP leagues.]]></description><link>https://www.theidpshow.com/p/2025-state-of-idp-report-fantasy-football</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.theidpshow.com/p/2025-state-of-idp-report-fantasy-football</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[ProfessorIDP]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Fri, 10 Jul 2026 18:01:01 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!8D9M!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa4266139-2735-4cb8-a206-3d3f25b2b626_1456x1080.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!8D9M!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa4266139-2735-4cb8-a206-3d3f25b2b626_1456x1080.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!8D9M!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa4266139-2735-4cb8-a206-3d3f25b2b626_1456x1080.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!8D9M!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa4266139-2735-4cb8-a206-3d3f25b2b626_1456x1080.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!8D9M!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa4266139-2735-4cb8-a206-3d3f25b2b626_1456x1080.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!8D9M!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa4266139-2735-4cb8-a206-3d3f25b2b626_1456x1080.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!8D9M!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa4266139-2735-4cb8-a206-3d3f25b2b626_1456x1080.png" width="1456" height="1080" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/a4266139-2735-4cb8-a206-3d3f25b2b626_1456x1080.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:1080,&quot;width&quot;:1456,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:2172469,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:false,&quot;topImage&quot;:true,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://www.theidpshow.com/i/206350603?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa4266139-2735-4cb8-a206-3d3f25b2b626_1456x1080.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!8D9M!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa4266139-2735-4cb8-a206-3d3f25b2b626_1456x1080.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!8D9M!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa4266139-2735-4cb8-a206-3d3f25b2b626_1456x1080.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!8D9M!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa4266139-2735-4cb8-a206-3d3f25b2b626_1456x1080.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!8D9M!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa4266139-2735-4cb8-a206-3d3f25b2b626_1456x1080.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" fetchpriority="high"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg aria-hidden="true" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p><span>As I mentioned in </span><a href="https://www.theidpshow.com/p/2025-state-of-idp-report-part-1-fantasy-football"><span>Part 1</span></a><span>, one of the chief complaints lodged by IDP skeptics is the proliferation of scoring systems. This has become such a common refrain by those inside and outside of the IDP community that I have decided to do a deep dive into the data on IDP and non-IDP leagues to answer three questions in this part two of the report:</span></p><ul><li><p><em><span>How messy is the IDP scoring landscape?</span></em></p></li><li><p><em><span>Is IDP scoring more complex than offensive scoring?</span></em></p></li><li><p><em><span>Are IDP leagues ahead of the curve in adopting offensive scoring innovations?</span></em></p></li></ul><p><span>For these analyses, I enlisted my IDP After Show partner, Jake Kohlhagen, to obtain all scoring settings from 12,000 leagues on Sleeper (6,000 with IDP and 6,000 without). Answering some questions required removing outliers, but these removals are disclosed in the relevant analyses.</span></p><p><span>Given that this is a hefty article, I wanted to share some primary takeaways and potential action items from the start:</span></p><ul><li><p><em><span>We should not obsess over scoring systems. Yes, they are messy in IDP, but so is offensive scoring.</span></em></p></li><li><p><em><span>IDP leagues tend to score more categories on offense, inadvertently diluting the value of IDP.</span></em></p></li><li><p><em><span>Good scoring systems add to the &#8216;IDP box score&#8217; categories and/or choose higher values for IDP stats given the proliferation of offensive scoring in IDP leagues.</span></em></p><div><hr></div></li></ul><div class="subscription-widget-wrap-editor" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://www.theidpshow.com/subscribe?&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Subscribe&quot;,&quot;language&quot;:&quot;en&quot;}" data-component-name="SubscribeWidgetToDOM"><div class="subscription-widget show-subscribe"><div class="preamble"><p class="cta-caption">This Substack is reader-supported. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.</p></div><form class="subscription-widget-subscribe"><input type="email" class="email-input" name="email" placeholder="Type your email&#8230;" tabindex="-1"><input type="submit" class="button primary" value="Subscribe"><div class="fake-input-wrapper"><div class="fake-input"></div><div class="fake-button"></div></div></form></div></div><div><hr></div><h2><strong><span>How much variance exists in IDP scoring?</span></strong></h2><p><span>To answer this question, I first removed extreme outliers from the overall scoring system. Specifically, I cut out the bottom 301 leagues in total IDP scoring across all categories (i.e., those leagues where tackles were worth 0.1 each and interceptions were worth 1 point) and the top 307 leagues in total scoring possibility (such as leagues that score sacks as 100 points). To establish an appropriate frame of reference, I repeated this analysis for the offense-only leagues as well, trimming leagues in the top or bottom 5th percentile for overall scoring. </span></p><p><span>The tables below list the following information for a given IDP stat:</span></p><ul><li><p><span>Percentage of IDP leagues that use the scoring category</span></p></li><li><p><span>Big 3 recommended scoring for the category</span></p></li><li><p><span>IDP123 recommended scoring for the category</span></p></li><li><p><span>Mean scoring for the category</span></p></li><li><p><span>Central mean for the category (excluding the top and bottom 2.5% of values)</span></p></li><li><p><span>Standard deviation of the category (the spread of the numbers around the raw mean)</span></p></li><li><p><span>IQV of the category (the range between how the league in the 25th percentile scores the category and how the league in the 75th percentile scores the category)</span></p></li></ul><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/afiSJ/1/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/25d90987-479d-473a-a00c-f975c44e3eef_1220x2310.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/399dba06-3eba-4439-91b0-19e244e9ba8d_1220x2310.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:1187,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;[ Insert title here ]&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/afiSJ/1/" width="730" height="1187" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p><span>While there are many interesting takeaways from the data, the most common scoring categories and their points stand out. In terms of scoring categories, IDP fantasy is clearly defined by the 12 categories typically found in an NFL box score. These &#8216;IDP box score&#8217; categories have 95% usage or greater and a huge break to the next two, with usage rates just above 40%. All twelve of the most common scoring categories have presets in the prominent &#8220;Big 3&#8221; and &#8220;IDP123&#8221; scoring schemes, while the next two most popular only appear in Big 3. Nearly one-third of leagues also score some kind of IDP bonus.</span></p><p style="text-align: center;"><em><span>What is scored in IDP leagues (at a minimum) is relatively straightforward: solo tackles, assists, tackles for loss, sacks, QB hits, fumbles (forced and recovered), interceptions, passes defended, blocked kicks, safeties, and touchdowns.</span></em></p><p><span>Variation within the categories can be explored in multiple ways, but each relevant metric paints a similar story. When exploring the difference between leagues in the 25th and 75th percentiles (i.e., the middle 50% of IDP leagues), we see very little variation across many core categories, with few exceptions. Seven of the twelve categories have no variation within this middle group (TFL = 2, QB hit = 1, FF = 3, FR = 3, BK = 3, Saf = 3, TD = 6). Two categories are tightly grouped, with solo tackles scored between 1.5 and 2 and assists ranging from .75 to 1 point each. The largest disparities are for passes defended (2.3 to 3), interceptions (5 to 6), and sacks (4 to 6). While these variations can be the difference in a tight week, there is not as big a chasm in scoring as has been feared.</span></p><p><span>Turning to standard deviations, these should be interpreted with caution, as the data are not normally distributed, as evidenced by the central means being almost universally lower than the raw averages, suggesting a skew towards higher values. Still, it is noteworthy that all twelve categories scored in IDP123 fall within one standard deviation of the mean, while nine of the fifteen categories scored in Big 3 are within these ranges.</span></p><p><span>Finally, by exploring the means, we can learn even more about variability in scoring. Despite notable differences, the correlation between the Big 3 scoring settings and IDP123 is 0.85. Both systems correlate more strongly with the mean and the central mean, with Big 3 at 0.95 and IDP123 at 0.98, suggesting that the values may differ, but the patterns are incredibly similar. It is also noteworthy that both prominent scoring schemes overshoot the mean in totality, as a player who tallied a single stat in each of the twelve core categories would score 45 points in Big 3 (plus any sack, interception return, or fumble return yardage), 39 points in IDP123, and 37.39 using the central mean.</span></p><p style="text-align: center;"><em><span>Despite exploitable differences, there is a great deal of consistency in the values and patterns in which common IDP plays are scored, suggesting an over-fixation on scoring systems.</span></em></p><div><hr></div><h2><strong><span>How does this compare to scoring in offense-only leagues?</span></strong></h2><p><span>To help better put these numbers into context, I report the same data for offensive scoring categories in the 5,392 non-extreme offense-only leagues.</span></p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/I2gsq/1/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/d6d46643-5d19-4e74-84cf-5474356678c5_1220x6322.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/0baf2720-60bf-43b1-be1a-6114fb15f83b_1220x6322.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:3527,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;[ Insert title here ]&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/I2gsq/1/" width="730" height="3527" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p><span>The first thing that stands out is the sheer number of potential scoring categories on offense. At 51 categories, this is more than double the potential IDP scoring categories! Similar to IDP, there are 11 offensive scoring categories that are commonplace, with usage rates of 96% or higher and tight end reception bonuses nearing 75%. Sixteen scoring categories are used between 20-30% of leagues, with another seven in the 10-20% range.</span></p><p style="text-align: center;"><em><span>While there are also 12 core scoring categories on offense, there are an additional 16 categories that are used in at least one-fifth of leagues.</span></em></p><p><span>Turning to the variance that exists within these categories, the IQVs show remarkable consistency of the core stats with two exceptions, interceptions (-2 to -1) and passing TDs (4 to 6), mirroring the differences observed for interceptions and sacks for IDP. The smaller standard deviations suggest smaller differences in offense from league to league, but this should be put into context: five of the core offensive categories have means of 1 or less, whereas only one of the core IDP scoring categories has a mean of less than 1. Where things get messy is in the less commonly scored categories, as both IQVs and standard deviations grow considerably in these stats.</span></p><p style="text-align: center;"><em><span>Offensive scoring is more standardized, but the variations that do exist suggest that, as systems have become more complex, there has been an under-fixation on offensive scoring.</span></em></p><div><hr></div><h2><strong><span>Are IDP leagues innovative (or unnecessarily complex) on offense?</span></strong></h2><p><span>One takeaway from the preceding sections is that systems such as IDP123 (and particularly Big 3) tend to overemphasize IDP scoring beyond the settings used in most leagues. Another is that offensive scoring options have proliferated significantly since both IDP scoring systems were designed. From the perspective of the ratio of offensive player scoring to IDP scoring, the logical conclusion is that IDP123 is likely functioning as designed in leagues with &#8216;standard&#8217; offensive scoring, whereas Big 3 scoring is better suited for leagues which have adopted innovations in offensive scoring. The previous table suggests that offense-only leagues skew towards vanilla scoring systems, with things like rushing first downs (26.2%), receiving first downs (24.6%), rush attempts (16.2%), big-play bonuses (21.1%-25.8%), and big-game bonuses (12.6%-22.8%) all relatively rare. However, two things are missing from this analysis: the number of scoring categories used by the average league, and the usage rates in leagues that use offensive players and IDP.</span></p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/4tXfF/1/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/31afb9eb-9f4d-483e-91a5-611739d0d6a6_1220x324.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/132b0b1d-dbf0-4fa0-a113-1415ff083bc1_1220x324.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:160,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;[ Insert title here ]&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/4tXfF/1/" width="730" height="160" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p><span>As seen from the table above, IDP leagues use (on average) 20.8 of the 51 available offensive scoring categories, whereas offense-only leagues average 17.6. While these may be driven by extreme outliers, they are not in these cases. Only 31% of IDP leagues use 12 or fewer offensive scoring categories, with 46% using 20 or more. Furthermore, the average IDP league scores 15 categories, with subsequent analyses revealing that only 36% of IDP leagues use 12 or fewer categories, while 60% use 15 or more.</span></p><div id="datawrapper-iframe" class="datawrapper-wrap outer" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/gmkNF/1/&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/5d36f198-d6e5-4ce4-b2ca-baa1099d7152_1220x4014.png&quot;,&quot;thumbnail_url_full&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/0a92a92d-5b75-4e9a-bd24-347fe8639005_1220x4014.png&quot;,&quot;height&quot;:2158,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;[ Insert title here ]&quot;,&quot;description&quot;:&quot;&quot;}" data-component-name="DatawrapperToDOM"><iframe id="iframe-datawrapper" class="datawrapper-iframe" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/gmkNF/1/" width="730" height="2158" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].contentWindow===e.source)t[r].style.height=e.data["datawrapper-height"][a]+"px"}}}))}();</script></div><p><span>Finally, we turn to usage rates of offensive scoring categories in IDP leagues. As seen in the table above, IDP leagues lag behind in many of the big 12 offensive scoring categories, due to the 24 IDP-only leagues in the sample. In every other one of the 39 offensive scoring categories, usage rates are higher in IDP leagues than in offense-only leagues (often by double-digit margins).</span></p><p style="text-align: center;"><em><span>IDP leagues tend to score more offensive categories than offense-only leagues and frequently add more IDP scoring categories to create balance.</span></em></p><p><span>I hope you have enjoyed this deep dive into the state of IDP scoring. If you are curious about anything I discuss above or any data I have but did not report out here, just let me know, and I am happy to keep the conversation going!</span></p><div><hr></div><p><em>Be sure to subscribe to The IDP Show on <a href="https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-idp-show/id1473735209"><span>Apple</span></a>, <a href="https://open.spotify.com/show/7Ikx5jmKhLav0zXRrdHfvM?si=8a4c3df330e54661"><span>Spotify</span></a>, or <a href="https://www.youtube.com/@theidpshow"><span>YouTube</span></a>.</em></p><p><em>You can follow us on all our social media channels, including <a href="https://x.com/theidpshow"><span>Twitter</span></a></em> <em>and <a href="https://www.instagram.com/theidpshow?igsh=eTNqM3ZubDNobHZw&amp;utm_source=qr"><span>Instagram</span></a>.</em></p>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Darkhorse Candidates to Finish as the overall CB1 in 2026]]></title><description><![CDATA[These under-the-radar defensive stars could outperform their ADP and emerge as league-winning CB1s during the 2026 fantasy football season.]]></description><link>https://www.theidpshow.com/p/darkhorse-candidates-db-cb-fantasy-football</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.theidpshow.com/p/darkhorse-candidates-db-cb-fantasy-football</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Jon Macri]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Fri, 10 Jul 2026 13:02:08 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!mdlS!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F515783ca-5902-46d8-87cd-96ab1c8bafd0_1448x1086.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!mdlS!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F515783ca-5902-46d8-87cd-96ab1c8bafd0_1448x1086.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!mdlS!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F515783ca-5902-46d8-87cd-96ab1c8bafd0_1448x1086.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!mdlS!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F515783ca-5902-46d8-87cd-96ab1c8bafd0_1448x1086.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!mdlS!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F515783ca-5902-46d8-87cd-96ab1c8bafd0_1448x1086.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!mdlS!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F515783ca-5902-46d8-87cd-96ab1c8bafd0_1448x1086.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!mdlS!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F515783ca-5902-46d8-87cd-96ab1c8bafd0_1448x1086.png" width="1448" height="1086" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/515783ca-5902-46d8-87cd-96ab1c8bafd0_1448x1086.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:1086,&quot;width&quot;:1448,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:2145902,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:false,&quot;topImage&quot;:true,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://www.theidpshow.com/i/205604728?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F515783ca-5902-46d8-87cd-96ab1c8bafd0_1448x1086.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!mdlS!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F515783ca-5902-46d8-87cd-96ab1c8bafd0_1448x1086.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!mdlS!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F515783ca-5902-46d8-87cd-96ab1c8bafd0_1448x1086.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!mdlS!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F515783ca-5902-46d8-87cd-96ab1c8bafd0_1448x1086.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!mdlS!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F515783ca-5902-46d8-87cd-96ab1c8bafd0_1448x1086.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" fetchpriority="high"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg aria-hidden="true" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>Each year, some players come out of nowhere to deliver huge fantasy seasons, especially in IDP leagues, given the relative instability of NFL defenses, as proven by players like Zack Baun (2024) and Jayron Kearse (2021), and by IDPs like Andrew Van Ginkel (2024) and Quincy Williams (2023), who came very close to finishing as IDP1s in previous years.</p><p>The cornerback position, much like the safety group, experiences a ton of variance at the top of the yearly finishers, with big plays like interceptions and pass breakups swinging fantasy point totals significantly. The cornerback position is also the deepest in fantasy football, with each NFL team typically having two full-time corners and one starting slot corner. With that many comparable players to choose from, it shouldn&#8217;t be a surprise that there&#8217;s so much instability among the top scorers each year, when a big play here or there can wildly affect their finish. </p><p>These darkhorse options are all going outside the top 12 at their positions, according to our <a href="https://www.theidpshow.com/p/2026-idp-best-ball-adp-fantasy-football">ADP IDP-only best-ball drafts</a>, which have been running regularly throughout this offseason. Big-3 Scoring referenced throughout this piece can be found <a href="https://www.theidpshow.com/p/big-3-scoring">here</a>.</p><div class="subscription-widget-wrap-editor" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://www.theidpshow.com/subscribe?&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Subscribe&quot;,&quot;language&quot;:&quot;en&quot;}" data-component-name="SubscribeWidgetToDOM"><div class="subscription-widget show-subscribe"><div class="preamble"><p class="cta-caption">This Substack is reader-supported. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.</p></div><form class="subscription-widget-subscribe"><input type="email" class="email-input" name="email" placeholder="Type your email&#8230;" tabindex="-1"><input type="submit" class="button primary" value="Subscribe"><div class="fake-input-wrapper"><div class="fake-input"></div><div class="fake-button"></div></div></form></div></div><div><hr></div><p>Cornerback continues the trend set by the safeties: defensive back production remains among the most unstable year to year, thanks to a heavy reliance on big plays for the top scorers. However, a few similarities from these past few seasons could help us find the next CB1 in IDP.</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!iDix!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8558ecf6-faec-4c77-9502-31614f5f7b6c_4878x1512.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!iDix!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8558ecf6-faec-4c77-9502-31614f5f7b6c_4878x1512.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!iDix!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8558ecf6-faec-4c77-9502-31614f5f7b6c_4878x1512.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!iDix!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8558ecf6-faec-4c77-9502-31614f5f7b6c_4878x1512.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!iDix!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8558ecf6-faec-4c77-9502-31614f5f7b6c_4878x1512.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!iDix!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8558ecf6-faec-4c77-9502-31614f5f7b6c_4878x1512.png" width="1456" height="451" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/8558ecf6-faec-4c77-9502-31614f5f7b6c_4878x1512.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:451,&quot;width&quot;:1456,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:null,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:null,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:false,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:null,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!iDix!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8558ecf6-faec-4c77-9502-31614f5f7b6c_4878x1512.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!iDix!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8558ecf6-faec-4c77-9502-31614f5f7b6c_4878x1512.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!iDix!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8558ecf6-faec-4c77-9502-31614f5f7b6c_4878x1512.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!iDix!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8558ecf6-faec-4c77-9502-31614f5f7b6c_4878x1512.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg aria-hidden="true" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><ul><li><p>While big plays are instrumental for DBs, Kamari Lassiter, L&#8217;Jarius Sneed, and Kenny Moore II all recorded over 90 total tackles in their respective CB1 seasons, underscoring the need for tackle opportunities and efficiency.</p></li><li><p>All players played around 600 coverage snaps in each of these seasons, which naturally creates opportunities for interceptions and pass breakups because they face a ton of targets along the way.</p></li><li><p>Playing time and targets often go hand in hand for most corners in the NFL, a point that will be highlighted in more detail shortly.</p></li><li><p>Only DaRon Bland in 2023 came in under 600 coverage snaps (593), but he did set an NFL record for most pick-sixes in a season, which is going to help and not something to try and chase for IDP managers.</p></li></ul><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!-B0k!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F3ad22e39-20cc-42cc-ac45-603e83c9c38c_4878x1542.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!-B0k!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F3ad22e39-20cc-42cc-ac45-603e83c9c38c_4878x1542.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!-B0k!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F3ad22e39-20cc-42cc-ac45-603e83c9c38c_4878x1542.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!-B0k!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F3ad22e39-20cc-42cc-ac45-603e83c9c38c_4878x1542.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!-B0k!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F3ad22e39-20cc-42cc-ac45-603e83c9c38c_4878x1542.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!-B0k!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F3ad22e39-20cc-42cc-ac45-603e83c9c38c_4878x1542.png" width="1456" height="460" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/3ad22e39-20cc-42cc-ac45-603e83c9c38c_4878x1542.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:460,&quot;width&quot;:1456,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:null,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:null,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:null,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!-B0k!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F3ad22e39-20cc-42cc-ac45-603e83c9c38c_4878x1542.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!-B0k!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F3ad22e39-20cc-42cc-ac45-603e83c9c38c_4878x1542.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!-B0k!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F3ad22e39-20cc-42cc-ac45-603e83c9c38c_4878x1542.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!-B0k!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F3ad22e39-20cc-42cc-ac45-603e83c9c38c_4878x1542.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg aria-hidden="true" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><ul><li><p>As mentioned above, the high volume of snaps will create a high volume of targets, leading to tackle opportunities in addition to interception and pass breakup opportunities.</p></li><li><p>Every past CB1 overall faced an above-average (13.5%) target rate in those seasons, and with full-time roles, that often led to them ranking in the top-10 at the position in total targets faced.</p></li><li><p>Three of the past five CB1s spent a high percentage of snaps lined up in the slot, which often boosts tackle production, as that alignment yields a higher tackle rate than playing on the outside.</p></li><li><p>However, as Lassiter and Bland showcased, it&#8217;s not a mandatory requirement, with big plays being such a random boost to IDP point totals.</p></li><li><p>For the sake of this list, we&#8217;ll focus mostly on playing time, alignment, and tackle potential as the basis for our darkhorse CB1 candidates, with hopes that the big-play odds swing in our favor as well.</p></li></ul><p>With all of these criteria in mind, we can turn our attention to the top candidates to finish as the darkhorse CB1 this coming season.</p><div><hr></div><h1>Upton Stout, San Francisco 49ers</h1><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!9kuf!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5dadb02e-8d09-498e-814d-11c4a41cfdc9_3942x816.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!9kuf!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5dadb02e-8d09-498e-814d-11c4a41cfdc9_3942x816.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!9kuf!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5dadb02e-8d09-498e-814d-11c4a41cfdc9_3942x816.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!9kuf!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5dadb02e-8d09-498e-814d-11c4a41cfdc9_3942x816.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!9kuf!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5dadb02e-8d09-498e-814d-11c4a41cfdc9_3942x816.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!9kuf!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5dadb02e-8d09-498e-814d-11c4a41cfdc9_3942x816.png" width="1456" height="301" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/5dadb02e-8d09-498e-814d-11c4a41cfdc9_3942x816.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:301,&quot;width&quot;:1456,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:null,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:null,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:null,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!9kuf!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5dadb02e-8d09-498e-814d-11c4a41cfdc9_3942x816.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!9kuf!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5dadb02e-8d09-498e-814d-11c4a41cfdc9_3942x816.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!9kuf!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5dadb02e-8d09-498e-814d-11c4a41cfdc9_3942x816.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!9kuf!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5dadb02e-8d09-498e-814d-11c4a41cfdc9_3942x816.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>Stout set the bar very high in his rookie season this past year, leading the position in Tackles versus Expected by a wide margin, and looking like the next great IDP slot corner worth targeting in drafts. Stout was so efficient with his opportunities that even though he averaged just <a href="https://www.theidpshow.com/p/2025-idp-snap-shares">58% of snaps</a> on the year, he still finished as the <a href="https://www.theidpshow.com/p/big-3-idp-scoring-leaders">overall CB18</a>. Not to be the extrapolation guy, but when considering that even a 70% snap share would have allowed for around 184 points on his 2025 pace, making him the overall CB2 on the year, it&#8217;s hard not to be hopeful for a big Year 2 from the up-and-coming nickel defender.</p><p>Of course, the expectation is that Stout will see increased playing time, which is typical for players coming off a promising rookie season. And without any real competition for that nickel role, the 49ers should give Stout a shot to stay on the field more in 2026, and potentially get closer to a very reasonable 75% snap share. With ideal alignment in the slot and a history of elite efficiency as a tackler, Stout immediately becomes one of the most intriguing IDPs for the 2026 season, and one I&#8217;m not afraid to target heavily this offseason, especially with his current <a href="https://www.theidpshow.com/p/2026-idp-best-ball-adp-fantasy-football">CB37 ADP</a>.</p><p>Stout even owns the best target rate among the players on this list, seeing a target on every five of his coverage snaps this past season, and even cracked the top-20 at his position in total targets faced (76). Again, considering the lack of playing time in Year 1, knowing those snaps should increase in Year 2, Stout potentially checks every possible box we&#8217;re looking for in an IDP corner, and he couldn&#8217;t be cheaper to target right now in drafts, so don&#8217;t let him pass you by in CB-required formats.</p><div><hr></div><h1>Jacob Parrish, Tampa Bay Buccaneers</h1><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!6ScV!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb827bd18-3e99-475e-bed3-0b4455be900a_3942x816.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!6ScV!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb827bd18-3e99-475e-bed3-0b4455be900a_3942x816.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!6ScV!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb827bd18-3e99-475e-bed3-0b4455be900a_3942x816.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!6ScV!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb827bd18-3e99-475e-bed3-0b4455be900a_3942x816.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!6ScV!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb827bd18-3e99-475e-bed3-0b4455be900a_3942x816.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!6ScV!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb827bd18-3e99-475e-bed3-0b4455be900a_3942x816.png" width="1456" height="301" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/b827bd18-3e99-475e-bed3-0b4455be900a_3942x816.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:301,&quot;width&quot;:1456,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:null,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:null,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:null,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!6ScV!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb827bd18-3e99-475e-bed3-0b4455be900a_3942x816.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!6ScV!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb827bd18-3e99-475e-bed3-0b4455be900a_3942x816.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!6ScV!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb827bd18-3e99-475e-bed3-0b4455be900a_3942x816.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!6ScV!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb827bd18-3e99-475e-bed3-0b4455be900a_3942x816.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>Parrish also enters Year 2 with <em>nearly </em>as much promise as the previously highlighted Upton Stout, and playing a very similar role as his team&#8217;s primary nickel defender. Parrish appears to be more favored by the IDP community at the moment, getting drafted as the overall CB20, though he finished just one spot ahead of Stout in Big-3 IDP scoring last season as the CB17, despite over 100 more defensive snaps. The one advantage this gives Parrish heading into 2026 is that his playing time is at least a more sure thing than Stout&#8217;s, who could be considered more of a projection to reach a 70%-plus snap share, whereas Parrish already achieved that mark as a rookie.</p><p>Parrish played two-thirds of his defensive snaps out of the slot in 2025, and he still managed a strong 73rd-percentile mark in <a href="https://www.theidpshow.com/p/idp-production-vs-expected-database">Tackles versus Expected</a>. This should tell us that Parrish is fully capable of posting league-leading tackle totals at his position, especially with any boost in playing time and as he develops as an NFL player. With high-end defensive backs in Tampa Bay&#8217;s secondary, it should be no surprise that Parrish would be targeted at a higher rate as well, evidenced by his 15.4% target rate in 2025, which should continue into 2026.</p><p>Parrish, continuing in his starting nickel-defender role, combined with his strong production metrics, makes him well worth targeting in CB-required formats. Knowing that there&#8217;s room for more big plays like interceptions and pass breakups to help boost his totals makes his CB20 ADP a potential steal for this season. With that slot-heavy role being the most ideal for tackle production, and the most stable for IDP, Parrish and Stout are two personal favorites to deliver well above expectations for IDP in 2026.</p><div id="youtube2-M22zyBnYzqc" class="youtube-wrap" data-attrs="{&quot;videoId&quot;:&quot;M22zyBnYzqc&quot;,&quot;startTime&quot;:null,&quot;endTime&quot;:null}" data-component-name="Youtube2ToDOM"><div class="youtube-inner"><iframe src="https://www.youtube-nocookie.com/embed/M22zyBnYzqc?rel=0&amp;autoplay=0&amp;showinfo=0&amp;enablejsapi=0" frameborder="0" loading="lazy" gesture="media" allow="autoplay; fullscreen" allowautoplay="true" allowfullscreen="true" width="728" height="409"></iframe></div></div><div><hr></div><h1>Riley Moss, Denver Broncos</h1><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!X3Os!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Facf77761-fd63-47bf-8640-8fd00865efd5_3942x816.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!X3Os!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Facf77761-fd63-47bf-8640-8fd00865efd5_3942x816.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!X3Os!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Facf77761-fd63-47bf-8640-8fd00865efd5_3942x816.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!X3Os!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Facf77761-fd63-47bf-8640-8fd00865efd5_3942x816.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!X3Os!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Facf77761-fd63-47bf-8640-8fd00865efd5_3942x816.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!X3Os!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Facf77761-fd63-47bf-8640-8fd00865efd5_3942x816.png" width="1456" height="301" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/acf77761-fd63-47bf-8640-8fd00865efd5_3942x816.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:301,&quot;width&quot;:1456,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:null,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:null,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:null,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!X3Os!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Facf77761-fd63-47bf-8640-8fd00865efd5_3942x816.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!X3Os!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Facf77761-fd63-47bf-8640-8fd00865efd5_3942x816.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!X3Os!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Facf77761-fd63-47bf-8640-8fd00865efd5_3942x816.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!X3Os!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Facf77761-fd63-47bf-8640-8fd00865efd5_3942x816.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>As highlighted in our past CB1 finishers, not every top IDP performer at the position relies on a slot-heavy role to deliver elite production. Sometimes those outside corners who are targeted a ton and are actually decent tacklers can emerge as the CB1 we&#8217;re looking for. Oftentimes, for an outside corner to take that top spot, they almost have to be playing opposite an elite NFL coverage corner on the other side. This was the case for Kamari Lassiter last year playing opposite Derek Stingley, and for this year&#8217;s choice of Moss, who plays opposite former Defensive Player of the Year Patrick Surtain II.</p><p>This theory was already put into practice last season with Moss, who led the NFL in most targets faced (114) and finished as the overall CB4 on the year. However, he&#8217;s being drafted as just the CB15 at the moment, which gives us an opportunity to bet on <em>some</em> stability at the position around Moss&#8217; role, creating potential value for us to take advantage of in 2026. Moss will still be the preferred target in the passing game for offenses choosing between him and Surtain, and he&#8217;s already shown he can be efficient as a tackler in that role. Moss <span>posted a 65th percentile mark in&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.theidpshow.com/p/idp-production-vs-expected-database"><span>Tackles versus Expected</span></a><span>,&nbsp;</span>down significantly from his 99th percentile mark in 2024. If we even get something in between those two marks for Moss in 2026, that could be the difference between a CB15 and CB1 overall finish.</p><p>The other area that could improve and make up that difference in the ADP comes from his interception totals. Among players with at least 75 targets, the average interception total was 2.0 last season. Moss managed just one. As an NFL cornerback, that&#8217;s bad luck more than anything, especially as the position leader in PBUs (15). Moss should see plenty of volume to keep his tackles and big plays among the best at the position, and any positive variance is really all we&#8217;re looking for to justify expecting CB1-level overall production from him.</p><div><hr></div><p><em><span>Be sure to subscribe to The IDP Show on </span><a href="https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-idp-show/id1473735209"><span>Apple</span></a><span>, </span><a href="https://open.spotify.com/show/7Ikx5jmKhLav0zXRrdHfvM?si=8a4c3df330e54661"><span>Spotify</span></a><span>, or </span><a href="https://www.youtube.com/@theidpshow"><span>YouTube</span></a><span>.</span></em></p><p><em><span>You can follow us on all our social media channels, including </span><a href="https://x.com/theidpshow"><span>Twitter</span></a></em><span> </span><em><span>and </span><a href="https://www.instagram.com/theidpshow?igsh=eTNqM3ZubDNobHZw&amp;utm_source=qr"><span>Instagram</span></a><span>.</span></em></p>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Darkhorse Candidates to Finish as the Overall DT1 in 2026]]></title><description><![CDATA[These under-the-radar defensive stars could outperform their ADP and emerge as league-winning DT1s during the 2026 fantasy football season.]]></description><link>https://www.theidpshow.com/p/darkhorse-candidates-dl-dt-fantasy-football</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.theidpshow.com/p/darkhorse-candidates-dl-dt-fantasy-football</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Jon Macri]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Thu, 09 Jul 2026 13:02:24 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!eSO2!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ffee0e564-9b31-472f-ae0b-05b937e6ada2_1448x1086.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!eSO2!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ffee0e564-9b31-472f-ae0b-05b937e6ada2_1448x1086.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!eSO2!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ffee0e564-9b31-472f-ae0b-05b937e6ada2_1448x1086.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!eSO2!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ffee0e564-9b31-472f-ae0b-05b937e6ada2_1448x1086.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!eSO2!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ffee0e564-9b31-472f-ae0b-05b937e6ada2_1448x1086.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!eSO2!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ffee0e564-9b31-472f-ae0b-05b937e6ada2_1448x1086.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!eSO2!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ffee0e564-9b31-472f-ae0b-05b937e6ada2_1448x1086.png" width="1448" height="1086" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/fee0e564-9b31-472f-ae0b-05b937e6ada2_1448x1086.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:1086,&quot;width&quot;:1448,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:2137225,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:false,&quot;topImage&quot;:true,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://www.theidpshow.com/i/205499069?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ffee0e564-9b31-472f-ae0b-05b937e6ada2_1448x1086.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!eSO2!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ffee0e564-9b31-472f-ae0b-05b937e6ada2_1448x1086.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!eSO2!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ffee0e564-9b31-472f-ae0b-05b937e6ada2_1448x1086.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!eSO2!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ffee0e564-9b31-472f-ae0b-05b937e6ada2_1448x1086.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!eSO2!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ffee0e564-9b31-472f-ae0b-05b937e6ada2_1448x1086.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" fetchpriority="high"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg aria-hidden="true" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>Each year, some players come out of nowhere to deliver huge fantasy seasons, especially in IDP leagues, given the relative instability of NFL defenses, as proven by players like Zack Baun (2024) and Jayron Kearse (2021), and by IDPs like Andrew Van Ginkel (2024) and Quincy Williams (2023), who came very close to finishing as IDP1s in previous years.</p><p>The defensive tackle position, much like <span>the&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.theidpshow.com/p/darkhorse-idp-candidates-edge-dl-fantasy-football"><span>EDGE group</span></a><span>, is not going to see as much variance at the top of the yearly finishers, with many of the past overall DT1s already drafted inside the top-10 at their position</span>. This is partly because the number of viable IDP options at defensive tackle is already small, and with a reliance on stable underlying pass-rush metrics playing the other role, we almost always have a good idea of who the best options will be. That being said, it doesn&#8217;t mean it&#8217;s impossible for positive sack variance to swing in favor of an unexpected high-end pass rusher breaking through, which will be the primary focus in finding a potential darkhorse DT1 for 2026.</p><p><span>These darkhorse options are all going outside the top 10 at their positions, according to our </span><a href="https://www.theidpshow.com/p/2026-idp-best-ball-adp-fantasy-football">ADP IDP-only best-ball drafts</a><span>, which have been running regularly throughout this offseason. Big-3 Scoring referenced throughout this piece can be found </span><a href="https://www.theidpshow.com/p/big-3-scoring">here</a><span>.</span></p><div class="subscription-widget-wrap-editor" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://www.theidpshow.com/subscribe?&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Subscribe&quot;,&quot;language&quot;:&quot;en&quot;}" data-component-name="SubscribeWidgetToDOM"><div class="subscription-widget show-subscribe"><div class="preamble"><p class="cta-caption">This Substack is reader-supported. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.</p></div><form class="subscription-widget-subscribe"><input type="email" class="email-input" name="email" placeholder="Type your email&#8230;" tabindex="-1"><input type="submit" class="button primary" value="Subscribe"><div class="fake-input-wrapper"><div class="fake-input"></div><div class="fake-button"></div></div></form></div></div><div><hr></div><p>Edge and defensive interior players share similar traits when it comes to which ones emerge as elite IDPs each season, though, as will be highlighted below, certain differences can lead to DT1 seasons compared to our ED1 options.</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!egHo!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fac4588e1-f637-412e-a7b2-ca0dd5db9135_4878x1512.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!egHo!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fac4588e1-f637-412e-a7b2-ca0dd5db9135_4878x1512.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!egHo!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fac4588e1-f637-412e-a7b2-ca0dd5db9135_4878x1512.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!egHo!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fac4588e1-f637-412e-a7b2-ca0dd5db9135_4878x1512.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!egHo!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fac4588e1-f637-412e-a7b2-ca0dd5db9135_4878x1512.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!egHo!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fac4588e1-f637-412e-a7b2-ca0dd5db9135_4878x1512.png" width="1456" height="451" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/ac4588e1-f637-412e-a7b2-ca0dd5db9135_4878x1512.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:451,&quot;width&quot;:1456,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:null,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:null,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:false,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:null,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!egHo!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fac4588e1-f637-412e-a7b2-ca0dd5db9135_4878x1512.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!egHo!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fac4588e1-f637-412e-a7b2-ca0dd5db9135_4878x1512.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!egHo!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fac4588e1-f637-412e-a7b2-ca0dd5db9135_4878x1512.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!egHo!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fac4588e1-f637-412e-a7b2-ca0dd5db9135_4878x1512.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg aria-hidden="true" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><ul><li><p>Depending on the scoring system, the top-performing DTs in IDP may rely more on sacks or tackles, whereas in Big-3 Scoring, pass-rushing prowess is crucial to success.</p></li><li><p>This is evidenced by four of our five past DT1s finishing no worse than the 90th percentile in Expected Sacks and posting at least 8.5 sacks on the year.</p></li><li><p>The lone exception is 2023&#8217;s DeForest Buckner, who finished just outside the top 90th percentile in Expected Sacks and only managed 6.5 actual sacks on the year. However, he also recorded the most tackles (73) among our past top five DTs. </p></li><li><p>While a balance between tackles and sacks is ideal so that our IDPs aren&#8217;t overly reliant on either, given the scoring system and the importance of pushing for double-digit sacks, we&#8217;ll lean more toward sacks as our guiding light. </p></li><li><p>Just three of last year&#8217;s top-12 DTs delivered more than 60% of their fantasy points from tackles, including Quinnen Williams, Cameron Heyward, and Jordan Davis.</p></li></ul><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!rMAa!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F317d7f88-2665-417c-ae55-d0f08798bb1f_4878x1542.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!rMAa!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F317d7f88-2665-417c-ae55-d0f08798bb1f_4878x1542.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!rMAa!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F317d7f88-2665-417c-ae55-d0f08798bb1f_4878x1542.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!rMAa!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F317d7f88-2665-417c-ae55-d0f08798bb1f_4878x1542.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!rMAa!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F317d7f88-2665-417c-ae55-d0f08798bb1f_4878x1542.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!rMAa!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F317d7f88-2665-417c-ae55-d0f08798bb1f_4878x1542.png" width="1456" height="460" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/317d7f88-2665-417c-ae55-d0f08798bb1f_4878x1542.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:460,&quot;width&quot;:1456,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:null,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:null,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:null,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!rMAa!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F317d7f88-2665-417c-ae55-d0f08798bb1f_4878x1542.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!rMAa!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F317d7f88-2665-417c-ae55-d0f08798bb1f_4878x1542.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!rMAa!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F317d7f88-2665-417c-ae55-d0f08798bb1f_4878x1542.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!rMAa!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F317d7f88-2665-417c-ae55-d0f08798bb1f_4878x1542.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg aria-hidden="true" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><ul><li><p>2021&#8217;s Heyward was the perfect combination of tackle and sack production for the position, and the most balanced of our past four DT1 performers.</p></li><li><p>Zach Allen came the closest to 2021 Heyward with his 8.5-sack, 51-tackle season in 2024, acting as a workhorse at the position, matching Brown&#8217;s 89% snap share from the year before.</p></li><li><p>89% of snaps is certainly on the high end for any defensive lineman, and, as Heyward proved in 2021, while snaps are crucial, hovering around 80% should be the ideal threshold.</p></li><li><p>Both Brown and Wilkins ranked among the top in their positions in tackles versus expected during their DT1 seasons, generating elite tackle rates that led to position-leading tackle totals and helped offset their lower pass-rush upside.</p></li></ul><p>With all of these criteria in mind, we can turn our attention to the top candidates to finish as the darkhorse DT1 this coming season.</p><div><hr></div><h1>Byron Murphy II, Seattle Seahawks</h1><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!vmgH!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F51cf3607-261e-468c-9af3-e8deb33c36e7_3942x804.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!vmgH!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F51cf3607-261e-468c-9af3-e8deb33c36e7_3942x804.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!vmgH!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F51cf3607-261e-468c-9af3-e8deb33c36e7_3942x804.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!vmgH!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F51cf3607-261e-468c-9af3-e8deb33c36e7_3942x804.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!vmgH!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F51cf3607-261e-468c-9af3-e8deb33c36e7_3942x804.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!vmgH!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F51cf3607-261e-468c-9af3-e8deb33c36e7_3942x804.png" width="1456" height="297" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/51cf3607-261e-468c-9af3-e8deb33c36e7_3942x804.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:297,&quot;width&quot;:1456,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:null,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:null,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:null,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!vmgH!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F51cf3607-261e-468c-9af3-e8deb33c36e7_3942x804.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!vmgH!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F51cf3607-261e-468c-9af3-e8deb33c36e7_3942x804.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!vmgH!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F51cf3607-261e-468c-9af3-e8deb33c36e7_3942x804.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!vmgH!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F51cf3607-261e-468c-9af3-e8deb33c36e7_3942x804.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>Murphy is currently my <a href="https://www.theidpshow.com/p/2026-idp-dynasty-rankings-and-tiers-fantasyfootball">DT1 in dynasty</a>, though that hasn&#8217;t necessarily translated to his redraft value yet, since he&#8217;s being <a href="https://www.theidpshow.com/p/2026-idp-best-ball-adp-fantasy-football">drafted as the DT12</a> in 2026. After a quiet rookie season, Murphy delivered a breakout season in 2025, delivering seven sacks, over 50 total tackles, and finishing as the overall <a href="https://www.theidpshow.com/p/big-3-idp-scoring-leaders">DT9 in Big-3 Scoring</a>. However, IDP managers are obviously expecting a decline in play in 2026, given he&#8217;s being drafted lower than that, but I&#8217;m here to shine an optimistic light on Murphy entering Year 3, which could be even better from an IDP standpoint.</p><p>Murphy took a massive leap in Year 2, finishing in the top 90th percentile in <a href="https://www.theidpshow.com/p/idp-production-vs-expected-database">Expected Sacks</a> and Tackles Versus Expected, while delivering a strong 76.6 pass-rush grade (13th). Murphy&#8217;s potential coming out of college, as a former first-round pick, suggests an arguably higher ceiling, and Year 3 is certainly the time we could see that potential realized. Murphy is a 99th-percentile scorer in my <a href="https://www.theidpshow.com/p/the-idp-show-prospect-models-rookies-fantasy-football">IDP Prospect Model</a>, suggesting he&#8217;s checked every box necessary to become a consistent top IDP performer annually. Should Murphy continue to progress as an NFL player and pass rusher, <span>as is expected for&nbsp;</span><em><span>most</span></em><span>&nbsp;highly drafted defensive linemen, there&#8217;s no reason to expect seven sacks to be his ceiling;</span> he should comfortably be in the conversation for double-digit sack potential at the position.</p><p>Helping Murphy&#8217;s case is that he&#8217;s also a strong tackler at the position, as evidenced by an elite 94th-percentile finish in <a href="https://www.theidpshow.com/p/idp-production-vs-expected-database">Tackles versus Expected</a>. With any increase in playing time, up from his 70% snap share in 2025, Murphy&#8217;s potential to rack up close to 60 tackles, combined with elite pass-rush ability, should easily create a top-10 IDP with even more upside. Murphy is right on the fringe of qualifying for this list as DT12 in ADP, so he isn&#8217;t an unknown or a true discount in drafts, but I believe his upside is as close to that DT1 overall as we can expect in this range.</p><div><hr></div><h1>Milton Williams, New England Patriots</h1><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!b1Ut!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F793d3702-159c-4a32-81fa-a6b62f60f631_3942x804.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!b1Ut!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F793d3702-159c-4a32-81fa-a6b62f60f631_3942x804.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!b1Ut!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F793d3702-159c-4a32-81fa-a6b62f60f631_3942x804.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!b1Ut!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F793d3702-159c-4a32-81fa-a6b62f60f631_3942x804.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!b1Ut!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F793d3702-159c-4a32-81fa-a6b62f60f631_3942x804.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!b1Ut!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F793d3702-159c-4a32-81fa-a6b62f60f631_3942x804.png" width="1456" height="297" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/793d3702-159c-4a32-81fa-a6b62f60f631_3942x804.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:297,&quot;width&quot;:1456,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:null,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:null,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:null,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!b1Ut!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F793d3702-159c-4a32-81fa-a6b62f60f631_3942x804.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!b1Ut!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F793d3702-159c-4a32-81fa-a6b62f60f631_3942x804.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!b1Ut!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F793d3702-159c-4a32-81fa-a6b62f60f631_3942x804.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!b1Ut!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F793d3702-159c-4a32-81fa-a6b62f60f631_3942x804.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>After an elite pass-rushing season in 2024, Williams landed a massive contract with the Patriots with high expectations for him as a true team DT1, which ideally would have translated immediately to IDP. Unfortunately, he suffered an ankle injury that landed him on injured reserve late in the year, costing him five games and limiting his IDP potential. However, even during Williams&#8217; active games, he wasn&#8217;t quite hitting as expected, but there&#8217;s untapped potential in his underlying metrics that warrants a better rank given his DT16 ADP.</p><p>Williams&#8217; elite IDP potential comes primarily from his work as a pass rusher; he was previously a top-two player at his position in that regard, according to PFF pass-rush grades (2024). This led to a 91st-percentile finish in Expected Sacks in 2024, and even with five missed games in 2025, he finished at the 81st percentile in that regard but at the 90th percentile in Expected Sacks per game. Even without a top-two PFF pass-rush grade last year and with the missed time, Williams&#8217; pass-rush metrics, combined with a career-high weekly snap share, are enough to put him in contention for double-digit sacks. </p><p>Williams&#8217; playing time is a big reason for his improved IDP potential, which isn&#8217;t unexpected considering the Patriots&#8217; investment in him; he should be more than just a designated pass rusher. Averaging 60% of snaps last year was a big jump from his norm, but with a fully healthy season and another year with the team, he should push for more work and add more as a tackler as well. Williams&#8217; 74th-percentile finish in Tackles versus Expected in 2025 and a 91st-percentile finish as a rookie in that metric suggest he can be efficient enough in the tackle department to help push him over the top as an IDP if he also delivers on his high-end pass-rush potential. Mid-range DT2 value in drafts is one that Williams should be able to outperform at the very least, and a good high-ceiling target for DT-required formats.</p><div id="youtube2-NIpyscy1dTs" class="youtube-wrap" data-attrs="{&quot;videoId&quot;:&quot;NIpyscy1dTs&quot;,&quot;startTime&quot;:null,&quot;endTime&quot;:null}" data-component-name="Youtube2ToDOM"><div class="youtube-inner"><iframe src="https://www.youtube-nocookie.com/embed/NIpyscy1dTs?rel=0&amp;autoplay=0&amp;showinfo=0&amp;enablejsapi=0" frameborder="0" loading="lazy" gesture="media" allow="autoplay; fullscreen" allowautoplay="true" allowfullscreen="true" width="728" height="409"></iframe></div></div><div><hr></div><h1>Kobie Turner, Los Angeles Rams</h1><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!XpNu!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F985afa93-fffb-465a-b873-7d970c693801_3942x804.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!XpNu!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F985afa93-fffb-465a-b873-7d970c693801_3942x804.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!XpNu!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F985afa93-fffb-465a-b873-7d970c693801_3942x804.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!XpNu!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F985afa93-fffb-465a-b873-7d970c693801_3942x804.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!XpNu!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F985afa93-fffb-465a-b873-7d970c693801_3942x804.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!XpNu!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F985afa93-fffb-465a-b873-7d970c693801_3942x804.png" width="1456" height="297" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/985afa93-fffb-465a-b873-7d970c693801_3942x804.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:297,&quot;width&quot;:1456,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:null,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:null,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:null,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!XpNu!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F985afa93-fffb-465a-b873-7d970c693801_3942x804.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!XpNu!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F985afa93-fffb-465a-b873-7d970c693801_3942x804.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!XpNu!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F985afa93-fffb-465a-b873-7d970c693801_3942x804.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!XpNu!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F985afa93-fffb-465a-b873-7d970c693801_3942x804.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>Full disclosure: Turner was on this list for me last year as my top pick, and I typically don&#8217;t like repeating names, but given his DT11 ADP and the overwhelming lack of true candidates at the position, I&#8217;m compelled to go back to him to deliver in 2026. And Turner did outperform his ADP last season, finishing as the overall DT8 in Big-3 Scoring despite being drafted DT11 that offseason. Since IDP managers haven&#8217;t changed their minds about him this offseason compared to last, it&#8217;s my job to keep beating the drum for why he deserves more praise and higher expectations as an IDP.</p><p>Turner set new career highs in PFF pass-rush grade (84.6), win rate (13.7%), and pressure rate (11.5%) in 2025. This resulted in a new career-high mark in Expected Sacks as well, finishing in the 97th percentile in that key metric. For a player who has come close to delivering double-digit sacks every year that he&#8217;s been in the league, the underlying metrics and positive predictive nature of those numbers should help him get there. Especially coming off a career-low seven-sack season, there&#8217;s certainly more untapped potential with Turner heading into Year 4.</p><p>This goes the same for Turner&#8217;s tackle potential, as he also finished with a career-low 41 total tackles this past season, and a number well worth betting on to improve. This was an area that took a hit for Turner in 2025<span>, after finishing at the 91st percentile in&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.theidpshow.com/p/idp-production-vs-expected-database"><span>Tackles versus Expected</span></a><span>&nbsp;in 2023 and the 87th percentile in 2024; he managed just a 47th-percentile</span> finish in 2025. With 2025 looking like an outlier compared to his previous seasons, it&#8217;s fair to expect <em>some</em> positive regression for Turner as a tackler, which, when combined with his double-digit sack potential, should have him comfortably outperforming his current ADP. </p><div><hr></div><p><em><span>Be sure to subscribe to The IDP Show on </span><a href="https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-idp-show/id1473735209"><span>Apple</span></a><span>, </span><a href="https://open.spotify.com/show/7Ikx5jmKhLav0zXRrdHfvM?si=8a4c3df330e54661"><span>Spotify</span></a><span>, or </span><a href="https://www.youtube.com/@theidpshow"><span>YouTube</span></a><span>.</span></em></p><p><em><span>You can follow us on all our social media channels, including </span><a href="https://x.com/theidpshow"><span>Twitter</span></a></em><span> </span><em><span>and </span><a href="https://www.instagram.com/theidpshow?igsh=eTNqM3ZubDNobHZw&amp;utm_source=qr"><span>Instagram</span></a><span>.</span></em></p>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Darkhorse IDP Candidates to Finish as the LINEBACKER1 in 2026]]></title><description><![CDATA[These under-the-radar defensive stars could outperform their ADP and emerge as league-winning LB1s during the 2026 fantasy football season.]]></description><link>https://www.theidpshow.com/p/darkhorse-idp-candidates-lb1-fantasy-football</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.theidpshow.com/p/darkhorse-idp-candidates-lb1-fantasy-football</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Jon Macri]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Wed, 08 Jul 2026 13:01:26 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!4zf7!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fba15d300-e5f8-4601-84a1-0b3a547a97ec_1448x1086.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!4zf7!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fba15d300-e5f8-4601-84a1-0b3a547a97ec_1448x1086.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!4zf7!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fba15d300-e5f8-4601-84a1-0b3a547a97ec_1448x1086.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!4zf7!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fba15d300-e5f8-4601-84a1-0b3a547a97ec_1448x1086.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!4zf7!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fba15d300-e5f8-4601-84a1-0b3a547a97ec_1448x1086.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!4zf7!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fba15d300-e5f8-4601-84a1-0b3a547a97ec_1448x1086.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!4zf7!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fba15d300-e5f8-4601-84a1-0b3a547a97ec_1448x1086.png" width="1448" height="1086" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/ba15d300-e5f8-4601-84a1-0b3a547a97ec_1448x1086.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:1086,&quot;width&quot;:1448,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:2262655,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:false,&quot;topImage&quot;:true,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://www.theidpshow.com/i/204940170?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fba15d300-e5f8-4601-84a1-0b3a547a97ec_1448x1086.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!4zf7!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fba15d300-e5f8-4601-84a1-0b3a547a97ec_1448x1086.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!4zf7!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fba15d300-e5f8-4601-84a1-0b3a547a97ec_1448x1086.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!4zf7!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fba15d300-e5f8-4601-84a1-0b3a547a97ec_1448x1086.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!4zf7!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fba15d300-e5f8-4601-84a1-0b3a547a97ec_1448x1086.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" fetchpriority="high"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg aria-hidden="true" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>Each year, some players come out of nowhere to deliver huge fantasy seasons, especially in IDP leagues, given the relative instability of NFL defenses, as proven by players like Zack Baun (2024) and Jayron Kearse (2021), and by IDPs like Andrew Van Ginkel (2024) and Quincy Williams (2023), who came very close to finishing as IDP1s in previous years.</p><p>Opportunities and tackles are king for fantasy linebacker production, with nearly 85% of fantasy points coming from tackles &#8211; more than any other IDP position. This is important information for fantasy managers because, while not easy, predicting tackle rates is still much more stable than predicting non-tackle box-score stats (sacks, fumbles, interceptions, etc.).</p><p>After Foyesade Oluokun reigned supreme for three straight seasons, Zack Baun emerged out of nowhere in 2024 to snatch his LB1 crown and prove that the darkhorse IDP1 finishers are more than possible to emerge every year, and 2026 is no different. Even with Jordyn Brooks, a consistently elite tackler who posted a massive tackle total and finished as LB1 in 2025, there are several contenders who can do the same this season.</p><p>These darkhorse options are all going outside the top 12 at their positions, according to our <a href="https://www.theidpshow.com/p/2026-idp-best-ball-adp-fantasy-football">ADP IDP-only best-ball drafts</a>, which have been running regularly throughout this offseason. Big-3 Scoring referenced throughout this piece can be found <a href="https://www.theidpshow.com/p/big-3-scoring">here</a>.</p><div class="subscription-widget-wrap-editor" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://www.theidpshow.com/subscribe?&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Subscribe&quot;,&quot;language&quot;:&quot;en&quot;}" data-component-name="SubscribeWidgetToDOM"><div class="subscription-widget show-subscribe"><div class="preamble"><p class="cta-caption">This Substack is reader-supported. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.</p></div><form class="subscription-widget-subscribe"><input type="email" class="email-input" name="email" placeholder="Type your email&#8230;" tabindex="-1"><input type="submit" class="button primary" value="Subscribe"><div class="fake-input-wrapper"><div class="fake-input"></div><div class="fake-button"></div></div></form></div></div><div><hr></div><p>With so many full-time linebackers, the goal will be to find one that checks every box comfortably, while also still going outside the top-10 at the position in <a href="https://www.theidpshow.com/p/2026-idp-best-ball-adp-fantasy-football">ADP</a>.</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!u7Rq!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F15b4387b-0856-4c7a-8cba-acc48fe9269a_4878x1512.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!u7Rq!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F15b4387b-0856-4c7a-8cba-acc48fe9269a_4878x1512.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!u7Rq!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F15b4387b-0856-4c7a-8cba-acc48fe9269a_4878x1512.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!u7Rq!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F15b4387b-0856-4c7a-8cba-acc48fe9269a_4878x1512.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!u7Rq!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F15b4387b-0856-4c7a-8cba-acc48fe9269a_4878x1512.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!u7Rq!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F15b4387b-0856-4c7a-8cba-acc48fe9269a_4878x1512.png" width="1456" height="451" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/15b4387b-0856-4c7a-8cba-acc48fe9269a_4878x1512.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:451,&quot;width&quot;:1456,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:null,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:null,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:false,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:null,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!u7Rq!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F15b4387b-0856-4c7a-8cba-acc48fe9269a_4878x1512.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!u7Rq!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F15b4387b-0856-4c7a-8cba-acc48fe9269a_4878x1512.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!u7Rq!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F15b4387b-0856-4c7a-8cba-acc48fe9269a_4878x1512.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!u7Rq!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F15b4387b-0856-4c7a-8cba-acc48fe9269a_4878x1512.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg aria-hidden="true" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><ul><li><p>Oluokun delivered three straight LB1 seasons, doing so on two different teams, while leading the league in total tackles in 2021 and 2022 and in solo tackles in 2023.</p></li><li><p>Baun made his mark in 2024, ranking among the league's top five in solo tackles while adding big plays, including 3.5 sacks and five forced fumbles.</p></li><li><p>Adding those big plays can push our linebackers over the top, especially when combined with the league-leading tackle numbers, and it will often be the difference between finishing as LB1 on the year and LB12 for those thousand-snap players.</p></li><li><p>For the most part, to reach that 17.0-plus points-per-game mark, our future LB1 should be able to deliver at least 80% of that as a tackler, with room for positive variance on big plays to help boost his ceiling just enough.</p></li></ul><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!7Wi3!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1ee1b5a2-b414-44e8-b292-a6e2787cab00_4878x1542.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!7Wi3!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1ee1b5a2-b414-44e8-b292-a6e2787cab00_4878x1542.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!7Wi3!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1ee1b5a2-b414-44e8-b292-a6e2787cab00_4878x1542.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!7Wi3!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1ee1b5a2-b414-44e8-b292-a6e2787cab00_4878x1542.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!7Wi3!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1ee1b5a2-b414-44e8-b292-a6e2787cab00_4878x1542.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!7Wi3!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1ee1b5a2-b414-44e8-b292-a6e2787cab00_4878x1542.png" width="1456" height="460" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/1ee1b5a2-b414-44e8-b292-a6e2787cab00_4878x1542.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:460,&quot;width&quot;:1456,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:null,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:null,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:null,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!7Wi3!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1ee1b5a2-b414-44e8-b292-a6e2787cab00_4878x1542.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!7Wi3!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1ee1b5a2-b414-44e8-b292-a6e2787cab00_4878x1542.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!7Wi3!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1ee1b5a2-b414-44e8-b292-a6e2787cab00_4878x1542.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!7Wi3!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1ee1b5a2-b414-44e8-b292-a6e2787cab00_4878x1542.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg aria-hidden="true" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><ul><li><p>There are several ways to maximize tackle production, but nothing is more important than overall playing time. Being an every-down linebacker and staying healthy for a full season will give anyone who fills those requirements a chance to lead the league in tackles.</p></li><li><p>The team the player is on, and the defensive schemes they run, also play a part in generating more tackle-efficient opportunities for the linebacker position. </p></li><li><p>Typically, the more zone-heavy a team is, the higher tackle efficiency those plays will yield for linebackers. Oluokun&#8217;s 2023 Jacksonville Jaguars and Baun&#8217;s 2024 Philadelphia Eagles used more zone coverage, which helps yield more efficient tackle numbers for the position, as noted <a href="https://x.com/IDP_Macri/status/2058910970534396125?s=20">here</a>.</p></li><li><p>Lastly, the player needs to be above average in tackle efficiency, as indicated by all past LB1s performing no worse than the 96th percentile in tackles-versus-expected over the past five seasons.</p></li></ul><div><hr></div><h1>Devin Lloyd, Carolina Panthers</h1><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Rfht!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F144d8360-0e2b-48f1-9f8b-0eb0e00eac0d_3942x810.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Rfht!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F144d8360-0e2b-48f1-9f8b-0eb0e00eac0d_3942x810.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Rfht!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F144d8360-0e2b-48f1-9f8b-0eb0e00eac0d_3942x810.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Rfht!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F144d8360-0e2b-48f1-9f8b-0eb0e00eac0d_3942x810.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Rfht!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F144d8360-0e2b-48f1-9f8b-0eb0e00eac0d_3942x810.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Rfht!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F144d8360-0e2b-48f1-9f8b-0eb0e00eac0d_3942x810.png" width="1456" height="299" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/144d8360-0e2b-48f1-9f8b-0eb0e00eac0d_3942x810.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:299,&quot;width&quot;:1456,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:null,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:null,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:null,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Rfht!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F144d8360-0e2b-48f1-9f8b-0eb0e00eac0d_3942x810.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Rfht!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F144d8360-0e2b-48f1-9f8b-0eb0e00eac0d_3942x810.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Rfht!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F144d8360-0e2b-48f1-9f8b-0eb0e00eac0d_3942x810.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Rfht!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F144d8360-0e2b-48f1-9f8b-0eb0e00eac0d_3942x810.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>Lloyd has long been in the shadow of the three-time LB1 himself, Foyesade Oluokun, but now with a new contract and opportunity with the Panthers, Lloyd is finally set to take on that true LB1 role for the first time in his career. Opportunity has been a massive barrier for Lloyd during his time with the Jacksonville Jaguars, and now that that major hurdle has been cleared, he truly has a chance to shine on his own and deliver the elite IDP production that we&#8217;ve long awaited.</p><p>A lack of opportunity hasn&#8217;t been the only concern for Lloyd during his NFL run thus far, but his underwhelming production as a tackler has also hindered his IDP potential. Lloyd hasn&#8217;t finished with a positive mark in <a href="https://www.theidpshow.com/p/idp-production-vs-expected-database">Tackles versus Expected</a> in any of his previous four seasons. Considering we need elite performers in that regard, Lloyd becomes one of the riskier picks for our darkhorse LB1, but there&#8217;s room to bet on improvement as well. A big part of that potentially improved tackle production comes from Lloyd now moving to the most zone-coverage-heavy scheme in the league from last season, which should greatly boost his expected tackle rate in 2026.</p><p>If Lloyd isn&#8217;t the league leader in tackles, he still has room to finish as the overall LB1 with his big-play potential. Over the past four seasons, Lloyd has averaged a blitz rate of around 12%, though that number was significantly higher in 2025 (21.4%). While blitzing linebackers isn&#8217;t a huge part of Ejiro Evero&#8217;s defensive scheme, it's reasonable to expect Lloyd to rush the passer on about 10% of his snaps, and even with that dip in usage from last year, he still comes in with around 3 sacks in our <a href="https://www.theidpshow.com/p/2026-idp-fantasy-football-projections-rankings">projections</a>. That dip in pass-rush usage would also help bump up his tackle numbers, on top of the new preferred zone-heavy coverage scheme. </p><p>Lloyd is currently <a href="https://www.theidpshow.com/p/2026-idp-best-ball-adp-fantasy-football">being drafted as the LB17</a> in our best-ball tournaments, which is a perfectly reasonable price to pay given his past IDP finishes. However, projections have him as the LB7, and I&#8217;m currently <a href="https://www.theidpshow.com/p/2026-fantasy-football-rankings-idp-lb-fantasy-football">ranking him as the overall LB8</a>, to put my money where my mouth is for this one. If he can return even top-12 production for the first time in his career, then he&#8217;s still a player well worth targeting in drafts this year.</p><div><hr></div><h1>Alex Singleton, Denver Broncos</h1><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!pbfe!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa3d5bd1d-d123-4c3b-8c2e-335b490d4a80_3942x810.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!pbfe!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa3d5bd1d-d123-4c3b-8c2e-335b490d4a80_3942x810.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!pbfe!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa3d5bd1d-d123-4c3b-8c2e-335b490d4a80_3942x810.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!pbfe!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa3d5bd1d-d123-4c3b-8c2e-335b490d4a80_3942x810.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!pbfe!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa3d5bd1d-d123-4c3b-8c2e-335b490d4a80_3942x810.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!pbfe!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa3d5bd1d-d123-4c3b-8c2e-335b490d4a80_3942x810.png" width="1456" height="299" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/a3d5bd1d-d123-4c3b-8c2e-335b490d4a80_3942x810.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:299,&quot;width&quot;:1456,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:null,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:null,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:null,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!pbfe!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa3d5bd1d-d123-4c3b-8c2e-335b490d4a80_3942x810.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!pbfe!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa3d5bd1d-d123-4c3b-8c2e-335b490d4a80_3942x810.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!pbfe!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa3d5bd1d-d123-4c3b-8c2e-335b490d4a80_3942x810.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!pbfe!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa3d5bd1d-d123-4c3b-8c2e-335b490d4a80_3942x810.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>A personal favorite, and the man known worldwide as &#8220;Kingleton&#8221;, he earned that moniker thanks to true dominance as a tackler for most of his NFL career. Singleton&#8217;s 2024 season was cut short by an ACL injury, but he returned to the field in time for the start of 2025, playing 16 games but not quite producing at the same level IDP managers have come to expect. Singleton finished as the LB33 in points per game and &#8220;just&#8221; 80th percentile in Tackles versus Expected. Coming off a major injury, it&#8217;s understandable that he wasn&#8217;t producing quite like his former self, but another year removed from that injury with no competition for playing time or tackles among the Denver linebacker corps, he should deliver closer to that elite production we&#8217;ve come to expect.</p><p>While an 80th percentile mark in Tackles versus Expected can be considered a great mark for <em>most</em> IDPs, it&#8217;s not &#8220;Kingleton&#8221; levels of efficiency like years past, where he&#8217;s finished 99th percentile (2021), 100th percentile (2022 &amp; 2023), and 100th percentile in Tackles versus Expected per game in 2024. A return to that level of efficiency is still within his realm of possibility, which would be a big boost to his overall LB1 potential. The concern for Singleton in 2026 mostly stems from the Broncos&#8217; defensive scheme, which was among the league&#8217;s most man-coverage-heavy in 2025 and likely will be again this season. However, for a player typically so effective at overcoming his situations, which is why he&#8217;s scored so well in Tackles versus Expected in the past, it shouldn&#8217;t be as big of a detriment to him as it would be to other less-effective linebackers.</p><p>While Singleton&#8217;s primary function is tackling, like every full-time linebacker, big plays are bound to happen, though he was wildly unlucky in that regard this past season. Singleton made up 92% of his fantasy production from tackles alone, which was just a 14th percentile mark for the position, and a number that should positively regress to the mean in 2026, creating another significant boost to his IDP production. Improving the situation for IDP managers buying into Singleton, like myself, his ADP makes him a much easier target to go after this year, since he&#8217;s being drafted as the LB32 at the moment. A return to form as a tackler and positive regression in the big-play department should easily have us praising Kingleton again as a top-notch IDP.</p><div id="youtube2-GrspC2RaGDY" class="youtube-wrap" data-attrs="{&quot;videoId&quot;:&quot;GrspC2RaGDY&quot;,&quot;startTime&quot;:null,&quot;endTime&quot;:null}" data-component-name="Youtube2ToDOM"><div class="youtube-inner"><iframe src="https://www.youtube-nocookie.com/embed/GrspC2RaGDY?rel=0&amp;autoplay=0&amp;showinfo=0&amp;enablejsapi=0" frameborder="0" loading="lazy" gesture="media" allow="autoplay; fullscreen" allowautoplay="true" allowfullscreen="true" width="728" height="409"></iframe></div></div><div><hr></div><h1>Kaden Elliss, New Orleans Saints</h1><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!-3R9!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F94be8b32-43c2-4174-9840-c1ceb1d34bf1_3942x810.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!-3R9!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F94be8b32-43c2-4174-9840-c1ceb1d34bf1_3942x810.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!-3R9!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F94be8b32-43c2-4174-9840-c1ceb1d34bf1_3942x810.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!-3R9!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F94be8b32-43c2-4174-9840-c1ceb1d34bf1_3942x810.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!-3R9!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F94be8b32-43c2-4174-9840-c1ceb1d34bf1_3942x810.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!-3R9!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F94be8b32-43c2-4174-9840-c1ceb1d34bf1_3942x810.png" width="1456" height="299" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/94be8b32-43c2-4174-9840-c1ceb1d34bf1_3942x810.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:299,&quot;width&quot;:1456,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:null,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:null,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:null,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!-3R9!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F94be8b32-43c2-4174-9840-c1ceb1d34bf1_3942x810.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!-3R9!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F94be8b32-43c2-4174-9840-c1ceb1d34bf1_3942x810.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!-3R9!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F94be8b32-43c2-4174-9840-c1ceb1d34bf1_3942x810.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!-3R9!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F94be8b32-43c2-4174-9840-c1ceb1d34bf1_3942x810.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>Elliss was an elite IDP performer in 2024, finishing as the overall LB3 in <a href="https://www.theidpshow.com/p/big-3-idp-scoring-leaders">Big-3 Scoring</a>, but for the majority of his career, he&#8217;s been more of just a solid weekly starter. And while there&#8217;s nothing wrong with being a weekly fantasy starter, we&#8217;re ideally looking for true league winners with pieces like this, and Elliss certainly has the potential to return that value in 2026 now that he&#8217;s back with the Saints.</p><p>The primary area of improvement for Elliss as an IDP will come from his tackle production, which, outside of that elite 2024 season when he finished in the 98th percentile in Tackles versus Expected, he&#8217;s typically finished well below average in that category. Much like the previously highlighted Devin Lloyd, Elliss&#8217; ability to buck that trend will come from a <span>friendlier defensive scheme that&nbsp;</span><em><span>should</span></em><span>&nbsp;lead to</span> a better tackle rate. Brandon Staley&#8217;s Saints defense last year ranked among the top 10 in zone coverage rates and blitzed linebackers far less often, which reduced tackle opportunities. For example, Demario Davis rushed the passer on 12% of his passing-down snaps in 2025, while Elliss did so on 26% of his passing-down snaps. The difference resulted in Davis having an expected tackle rate of 14% for the year, while Elliss&#8217; was just 12%, which is below average (13%) for the position.</p><p>As we expected Elliss&#8217; tackle rate to improve due to a better scheme, it also means his sack opportunities are bound to decline, though not to the point where he shouldn&#8217;t deliver in that regard. Not only is that a strength of Elliss&#8217; game, having delivered a minimum of 3.5 sacks in each of the past four seasons, but depending on just how much usage he gets in that role, he&#8217;s one of the better bets for improved sack numbers this year as well. Elliss led the linebacker position in Expected Sacks last year (8.0) but finished with only 3.5, suggesting potential positive regression. Even if not 8 sacks, since he&#8217;ll be rushing slightly less, it wouldn&#8217;t be a surprise to see him land 4-5 on top of the improved tackle numbers and really elevate his IDP status once again in 2026. </p><p>As the LB18 in our ADP at the moment, Elliss stands out as a clear-cut target to improve on his 2025 season and potentially deliver a result similar to 2024, putting him in that league-winning territory. </p><div><hr></div><p><em>Be sure to subscribe to The IDP Show on <a href="https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-idp-show/id1473735209"><span>Apple</span></a>, <a href="https://open.spotify.com/show/7Ikx5jmKhLav0zXRrdHfvM?si=8a4c3df330e54661"><span>Spotify</span></a>, or <a href="https://www.youtube.com/@theidpshow"><span>YouTube</span></a>.</em></p><p><em>You can follow us on all our social media channels, including <a href="https://x.com/theidpshow"><span>Twitter</span></a></em> <em>and <a href="https://www.instagram.com/theidpshow?igsh=eTNqM3ZubDNobHZw&amp;utm_source=qr"><span>Instagram</span></a>.</em></p>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Darkhorse IDP Candidates to Finish as the SAFETY1 in 2026]]></title><description><![CDATA[These under-the-radar defensive stars could outperform their ADP and emerge as league-winning S1s during the 2026 fantasy football season.]]></description><link>https://www.theidpshow.com/p/darkhorse-idp-candidates-s1-db1-fantasy-football</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.theidpshow.com/p/darkhorse-idp-candidates-s1-db1-fantasy-football</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Jon Macri]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Tue, 07 Jul 2026 13:01:39 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Zz9t!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8b2dc7d3-dfba-4a4b-90c7-1b594a709335_1492x1054.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Zz9t!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8b2dc7d3-dfba-4a4b-90c7-1b594a709335_1492x1054.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Zz9t!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8b2dc7d3-dfba-4a4b-90c7-1b594a709335_1492x1054.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Zz9t!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8b2dc7d3-dfba-4a4b-90c7-1b594a709335_1492x1054.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Zz9t!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8b2dc7d3-dfba-4a4b-90c7-1b594a709335_1492x1054.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Zz9t!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8b2dc7d3-dfba-4a4b-90c7-1b594a709335_1492x1054.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Zz9t!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8b2dc7d3-dfba-4a4b-90c7-1b594a709335_1492x1054.png" width="1456" height="1029" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/8b2dc7d3-dfba-4a4b-90c7-1b594a709335_1492x1054.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:1029,&quot;width&quot;:1456,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:2382566,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:false,&quot;topImage&quot;:true,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://www.theidpshow.com/i/204733948?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8b2dc7d3-dfba-4a4b-90c7-1b594a709335_1492x1054.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Zz9t!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8b2dc7d3-dfba-4a4b-90c7-1b594a709335_1492x1054.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Zz9t!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8b2dc7d3-dfba-4a4b-90c7-1b594a709335_1492x1054.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Zz9t!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8b2dc7d3-dfba-4a4b-90c7-1b594a709335_1492x1054.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Zz9t!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8b2dc7d3-dfba-4a4b-90c7-1b594a709335_1492x1054.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" fetchpriority="high"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg aria-hidden="true" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>Each year, some players come out of nowhere to deliver huge fantasy seasons, especially in IDP leagues, given the relative instability of NFL defenses, as proven by players like Zack Baun (2024) and Jayron Kearse (2021), and by IDPs like Andrew Van Ginkel (2024) and Quincy Williams (2023), who came very close to finishing as IDP1s in previous years.</p><p>The safety position is easily one of the tougher positions to predict, although<span>, funny enough, it&#8217;s also where we had our&nbsp;</span><a href="https://youtu.be/0efqhDHnvag?si=O-YMuc0-qI0b6orZ&amp;t=2171"><span>biggest hit by putting Budda Baker</span></a><span>&nbsp;on this list before his massive 2024 season</span>, which is why it&#8217;s still worth digging in to find other future candidates. And luckily, there are patterns to find reliable options, though 2021 Kearse is a good example of how true darkhorses can come out of nowhere to surprise IDP managers.</p><p>These darkhorse options are all going outside the top 12 at their positions, according to our <a href="https://www.theidpshow.com/p/2026-idp-best-ball-adp-fantasy-football">ADP from IDP-only best-ball drafts</a>, which have been running regularly throughout this offseason. Big-3 Scoring referenced throughout this piece can be found <a href="https://www.theidpshow.com/p/big-3-scoring">here</a>.</p><div class="subscription-widget-wrap-editor" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://www.theidpshow.com/subscribe?&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Subscribe&quot;,&quot;language&quot;:&quot;en&quot;}" data-component-name="SubscribeWidgetToDOM"><div class="subscription-widget show-subscribe"><div class="preamble"><p class="cta-caption">This Substack is reader-supported. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.</p></div><form class="subscription-widget-subscribe"><input type="email" class="email-input" name="email" placeholder="Type your email&#8230;" tabindex="-1"><input type="submit" class="button primary" value="Subscribe"><div class="fake-input-wrapper"><div class="fake-input"></div><div class="fake-button"></div></div></form></div></div><div><hr></div><p>The safety and defensive back positions, as a whole, tend to see much more year-to-year turnover among the top fantasy scorers. Still, there are some similarities among past S1s that we can learn from to help identify the next man up for 2026.</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!o_gw!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F9b16121e-5ea2-43fb-8b8e-89feee643612_4878x1512.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!o_gw!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F9b16121e-5ea2-43fb-8b8e-89feee643612_4878x1512.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!o_gw!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F9b16121e-5ea2-43fb-8b8e-89feee643612_4878x1512.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!o_gw!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F9b16121e-5ea2-43fb-8b8e-89feee643612_4878x1512.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!o_gw!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F9b16121e-5ea2-43fb-8b8e-89feee643612_4878x1512.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!o_gw!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F9b16121e-5ea2-43fb-8b8e-89feee643612_4878x1512.png" width="1456" height="451" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/9b16121e-5ea2-43fb-8b8e-89feee643612_4878x1512.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:451,&quot;width&quot;:1456,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:null,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:null,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:false,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:null,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!o_gw!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F9b16121e-5ea2-43fb-8b8e-89feee643612_4878x1512.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!o_gw!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F9b16121e-5ea2-43fb-8b8e-89feee643612_4878x1512.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!o_gw!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F9b16121e-5ea2-43fb-8b8e-89feee643612_4878x1512.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!o_gw!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F9b16121e-5ea2-43fb-8b8e-89feee643612_4878x1512.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg aria-hidden="true" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><ul><li><p>Nick Cross had the ideal usage and production to come out on top in 2025, combining high-end tackle numbers with big plays, much like past S1s.</p></li><li><p>Budda Baker and Jalen Pitre really set the bar high for tackle numbers at the position, though those numbers don&#8217;t necessarily have to be that high with enough big plays mixed in. </p></li><li><p>Pitre and Antoine Winfield Jr. combined for tackles and a higher rate of big plays to reach those S1 heights.</p></li><li><p>Ultimately, there&#8217;s going to be at least some reliance on big plays to actually come through as the IDP leader for this position most years, since an average of 20% of DB fantasy production comes from non-tackles.</p></li><li><p>Unfortunately, predicting big plays like interceptions and sacks is a fool&#8217;s errand, so we&#8217;ll focus mostly on metrics that are slightly more stable.</p></li></ul><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!6Xww!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb4481f3d-8acc-48cb-aa18-5f50e5b32793_4878x1542.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!6Xww!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb4481f3d-8acc-48cb-aa18-5f50e5b32793_4878x1542.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!6Xww!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb4481f3d-8acc-48cb-aa18-5f50e5b32793_4878x1542.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!6Xww!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb4481f3d-8acc-48cb-aa18-5f50e5b32793_4878x1542.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!6Xww!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb4481f3d-8acc-48cb-aa18-5f50e5b32793_4878x1542.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!6Xww!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb4481f3d-8acc-48cb-aa18-5f50e5b32793_4878x1542.png" width="1456" height="460" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/b4481f3d-8acc-48cb-aa18-5f50e5b32793_4878x1542.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:460,&quot;width&quot;:1456,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:null,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:null,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:null,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!6Xww!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb4481f3d-8acc-48cb-aa18-5f50e5b32793_4878x1542.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!6Xww!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb4481f3d-8acc-48cb-aa18-5f50e5b32793_4878x1542.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!6Xww!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb4481f3d-8acc-48cb-aa18-5f50e5b32793_4878x1542.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!6Xww!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb4481f3d-8acc-48cb-aa18-5f50e5b32793_4878x1542.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg aria-hidden="true" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><ul><li><p>Tackles are our best bet to project, and their potential usage and alignment within the defense can aid that projection.</p></li><li><p>Winfield and Pitre didn&#8217;t necessarily play a high rate of snaps close to the line of scrimmage, but they both produced well above average in either big plays (Winfield) or tackles (Pitre), making them significant outliers that are difficult to replicate.</p></li><li><p>Our focus will be on identifying those who can rack up tackles like Cross, Baker, and Kearse, who spent the majority of their snaps near the line of scrimmage.</p></li><li><p>Outside of Kearse, who mostly delivered as expected as a tackler based on his usage, all of our previous S1s were elite performers in <a href="https://www.theidpshow.com/p/idp-production-vs-expected-database">Tackles versus Expected</a>, which will ideally help us pinpoint more DNA for a 2026 IDP leader at the position.</p></li></ul><div><hr></div><h1>Chamarri Conner, Kansas City Chiefs</h1><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!fLHz!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe76c521c-3467-4e02-8ee6-0f2949e21b7c_3942x810.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!fLHz!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe76c521c-3467-4e02-8ee6-0f2949e21b7c_3942x810.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!fLHz!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe76c521c-3467-4e02-8ee6-0f2949e21b7c_3942x810.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!fLHz!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe76c521c-3467-4e02-8ee6-0f2949e21b7c_3942x810.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!fLHz!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe76c521c-3467-4e02-8ee6-0f2949e21b7c_3942x810.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!fLHz!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe76c521c-3467-4e02-8ee6-0f2949e21b7c_3942x810.png" width="1456" height="299" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/e76c521c-3467-4e02-8ee6-0f2949e21b7c_3942x810.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:299,&quot;width&quot;:1456,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:null,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:null,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:null,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!fLHz!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe76c521c-3467-4e02-8ee6-0f2949e21b7c_3942x810.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!fLHz!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe76c521c-3467-4e02-8ee6-0f2949e21b7c_3942x810.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!fLHz!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe76c521c-3467-4e02-8ee6-0f2949e21b7c_3942x810.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!fLHz!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe76c521c-3467-4e02-8ee6-0f2949e21b7c_3942x810.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>Conner delivered a breakout season in 2025 after taking over a larger full-time role in Kansas City&#8217;s defense following the departure of Justin Reid, absorbing that usage and really running away with it. Conner finished as the overall S12 in Big-3 scoring, backed by 115 total tackles, two sacks, an interception, and two forced fumbles. Conner inherited the box-heavy deployment in Steve Spagnuolo&#8217;s defense and made the most of his opportunities, ideally a trend that will continue into 2026 for him to hit an even higher mark.</p><p>Considering Conner was an every-down player for the first time in his three-year career, and knowing the role that he gets to play in that defense, averaging 40% of his snaps in the box, another 38% in the slot, and only 17% deep, he has one of the most optimal deployments for the position in the league. Helping Conner&#8217;s case is that he&#8217;s been a highly effective tackler every year of his career, including a 76th-percentile finish in <a href="https://www.theidpshow.com/p/idp-production-vs-expected-database">Tackles versus Expected</a> in 2025, a 94th-percentile finish in 2024, and a 67th-percentile finish in 2023. When understanding that he&#8217;s outperforming the position&#8217;s average production based on his deployment, even with the ideal deployment of playing so close to the line of scrimmage, even hitting a 90th-percentile finish in that metric, he becomes a great bet to hit those elite tackle marks in 2026.</p><p>On top of his top-tier tackling, Conner has at least some upside to improve in big plays, as he was smack-dab in the middle in terms of percentage of non-tackle fantasy points last season (20.2%). There&#8217;s always a chance he can regress in the wrong direction with those big plays, but the goal of this piece is optimism, and Conner should certainly have us feeling more optimistic, especially considering his <a href="https://www.theidpshow.com/p/2026-idp-best-ball-adp-fantasy-football">DB32 ADP</a> at the moment.</p><div><hr></div><h1>DeShon Elliott, Pittsburgh Steelers</h1><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!G684!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5026cca1-35be-4a7b-a8e7-086d90368f85_3942x810.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!G684!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5026cca1-35be-4a7b-a8e7-086d90368f85_3942x810.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!G684!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5026cca1-35be-4a7b-a8e7-086d90368f85_3942x810.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!G684!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5026cca1-35be-4a7b-a8e7-086d90368f85_3942x810.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!G684!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5026cca1-35be-4a7b-a8e7-086d90368f85_3942x810.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!G684!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5026cca1-35be-4a7b-a8e7-086d90368f85_3942x810.png" width="1456" height="299" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/5026cca1-35be-4a7b-a8e7-086d90368f85_3942x810.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:299,&quot;width&quot;:1456,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:null,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:null,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:null,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!G684!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5026cca1-35be-4a7b-a8e7-086d90368f85_3942x810.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!G684!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5026cca1-35be-4a7b-a8e7-086d90368f85_3942x810.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!G684!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5026cca1-35be-4a7b-a8e7-086d90368f85_3942x810.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!G684!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5026cca1-35be-4a7b-a8e7-086d90368f85_3942x810.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>I know that I&#8217;ve talked about Elliott a fair bit recently, including as a <a href="https://www.theidpshow.com/p/2026-idp-bounce-back-candidates">bounce-back candidate</a> and <span>a&nbsp;</span><a href="https://youtu.be/MYoA2ea7RJI?si=CACkCFBybX23vKnf"><span>potential hidden gem</span></a><span>&nbsp;in my </span><a href="https://www.theidpshow.com/p/2026-idp-fantasy-football-projections-rankings"><span>IDP projections</span></a><span>, so I apologize for feeling</span> obligated to include him one more time. I&#8217;ll be sure to make this the last spotlight for him this offseason, but it&#8217;s not my fault he fits so many superlatives, and perhaps none more so than here as a true darkhorse to finish as the overall S1 in 2026.</p><p>Elliott was already at a similar pace last year, but unfortunately his season was cut short by injury. However, even with just under 300 defensive snaps in 2025, Elliott&#8217;s elite tackling shone through as he finished in the 87th percentile in <a href="https://www.theidpshow.com/p/idp-production-vs-expected-database">Tackles versus Expected</a> overall and the 99th percentile in Tackles versus Expected per game. This has been the norm for much of Elliott&#8217;s career, including 2024, when he finished in the 98th percentile, and 2022, when he finished in the 93rd percentile. Considering that he&#8217;s been able to achieve those marks regardless of deployment, I'm hopeful that a change in defensive scheme in 2026 won&#8217;t be a significant detriment to his overall production potential.</p><p>The Steelers brought in another box-heavy safety in Jaquan Brisker this offseason, but both he and Elliott are more than capable of filling that role throughout the season. Even if Elliott were to get more snaps deep, his Tackles versus Expected track record is the evidence we&#8217;re looking for to highlight players who can overcome suboptimal deployments. Elliott played 42% of his snaps deep in 2022 and still ranked in the 93rd percentile in Tackles versus Expected. 42% deep really feels like a worst-case scenario for Elliott, considering his usage most years. The main takeaway here should be that a healthy Elliott means a top-tier IDP on a full-time snap share, and considering his <a href="https://www.theidpshow.com/p/2026-idp-best-ball-adp-fantasy-football">DB55 ADP</a>, why would we not want to get in on that, S1 overall upside aside.</p><div id="youtube2-qAalLRKyxfg" class="youtube-wrap" data-attrs="{&quot;videoId&quot;:&quot;qAalLRKyxfg&quot;,&quot;startTime&quot;:null,&quot;endTime&quot;:null}" data-component-name="Youtube2ToDOM"><div class="youtube-inner"><iframe src="https://www.youtube-nocookie.com/embed/qAalLRKyxfg?rel=0&amp;autoplay=0&amp;showinfo=0&amp;enablejsapi=0" frameborder="0" loading="lazy" gesture="media" allow="autoplay; fullscreen" allowautoplay="true" allowfullscreen="true" width="728" height="409"></iframe></div></div><div><hr></div><h1>A.J. Haulcy, Indianapolis Colts</h1><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!MSQh!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fbe3a920e-0477-4424-a2e9-899cc8496b20_3942x810.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!MSQh!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fbe3a920e-0477-4424-a2e9-899cc8496b20_3942x810.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!MSQh!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fbe3a920e-0477-4424-a2e9-899cc8496b20_3942x810.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!MSQh!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fbe3a920e-0477-4424-a2e9-899cc8496b20_3942x810.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!MSQh!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fbe3a920e-0477-4424-a2e9-899cc8496b20_3942x810.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!MSQh!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fbe3a920e-0477-4424-a2e9-899cc8496b20_3942x810.png" width="1456" height="299" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/be3a920e-0477-4424-a2e9-899cc8496b20_3942x810.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:299,&quot;width&quot;:1456,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:null,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:null,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:null,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!MSQh!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fbe3a920e-0477-4424-a2e9-899cc8496b20_3942x810.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!MSQh!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fbe3a920e-0477-4424-a2e9-899cc8496b20_3942x810.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!MSQh!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fbe3a920e-0477-4424-a2e9-899cc8496b20_3942x810.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!MSQh!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fbe3a920e-0477-4424-a2e9-899cc8496b20_3942x810.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>Depending on who's reading this, I&#8217;m either crazy for putting a rookie on this list, <em>or</em> I&#8217;m cheating by choosing the exact same role and team that last year&#8217;s IDP S1 came from. And I say both can be true, if we&#8217;re being honest. Because, despite Haulcy being a complete unknown in terms of what he&#8217;ll be in the NFL, there&#8217;s a very favorable role for him to absorb in Lou Anarumo&#8217;s defense, and, if his rookie prospect profile is to be believed, he has the makings to deliver on that potential and come close to returning elite IDP value.</p><p>Last year, in this same defense, Nick Cross played 50% of his defensive snaps in the box and still finished in the 90th percentile in Tackles versus Expected. With Cross gone and a Day 2 pick spent on Haulcy to seemingly replace him, we&#8217;ll ideally see Haulcy perform similarly as a tackler, fulfilling his S1 potential. There&#8217;s certainly hope with Haulcy, who, compared to his Day 1 and Day 2 DB peers drafted in this class, owns the best career college tackle rate of 12.9% (96th percentile). Haulcy also has experience playing around the line of scrimmage, having averaged 37% of his college snaps in the box and performing well in that role, given his 97th-percentile career PFF grade (92.5).</p><p>For Haulcy to deliver on his S1 potential, he&#8217;ll obviously need to win a starting job, which shouldn&#8217;t be too difficult considering the team&#8217;s investment in him and the other options on the roster. He&#8217;ll also need that box-heavy role, which makes much more sense for him than it does perennial deep-safety Cam Bynum. And finally, his college production metrics and potential will have to carry over and hit immediately in Year 1 in the NFL. If that reasonable and perfect storm comes together, Haulcy should have a real shot at returning elite IDP value. Even though this is rarely seen from rookies at the position, recent years have seen Nick Emmanwori (S5 in PPG) and Brian Branch (CB2 in PPG) deliver on their potential immediately.</p><div><hr></div><p><em>Be sure to subscribe to The IDP Show on <a href="https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-idp-show/id1473735209"><span>Apple</span></a>, <a href="https://open.spotify.com/show/7Ikx5jmKhLav0zXRrdHfvM?si=8a4c3df330e54661"><span>Spotify</span></a>, or <a href="https://www.youtube.com/@theidpshow"><span>YouTube</span></a>.</em></p><p><em>You can follow us on all our social media channels, including <a href="https://x.com/theidpshow"><span>Twitter</span></a></em> <em>and <a href="https://www.instagram.com/theidpshow?igsh=eTNqM3ZubDNobHZw&amp;utm_source=qr"><span>Instagram</span></a>.</em></p>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Darkhorse IDP Candidates to Finish as the EDGE1 in 2026]]></title><description><![CDATA[These under-the-radar defensive stars could outperform their ADP and emerge as league-winning ED1s during the 2026 fantasy football season.]]></description><link>https://www.theidpshow.com/p/darkhorse-idp-candidates-edge-dl-fantasy-football</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.theidpshow.com/p/darkhorse-idp-candidates-edge-dl-fantasy-football</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Jon Macri]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Mon, 06 Jul 2026 13:03:11 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!a8Vw!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F23cf77c1-e07e-4f31-9fa8-9c7a320ecd7d_1477x1065.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!a8Vw!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F23cf77c1-e07e-4f31-9fa8-9c7a320ecd7d_1477x1065.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!a8Vw!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F23cf77c1-e07e-4f31-9fa8-9c7a320ecd7d_1477x1065.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!a8Vw!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F23cf77c1-e07e-4f31-9fa8-9c7a320ecd7d_1477x1065.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!a8Vw!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F23cf77c1-e07e-4f31-9fa8-9c7a320ecd7d_1477x1065.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!a8Vw!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F23cf77c1-e07e-4f31-9fa8-9c7a320ecd7d_1477x1065.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!a8Vw!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F23cf77c1-e07e-4f31-9fa8-9c7a320ecd7d_1477x1065.png" width="1456" height="1050" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/23cf77c1-e07e-4f31-9fa8-9c7a320ecd7d_1477x1065.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:1050,&quot;width&quot;:1456,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:2344471,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:false,&quot;topImage&quot;:true,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://www.theidpshow.com/i/204691797?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F23cf77c1-e07e-4f31-9fa8-9c7a320ecd7d_1477x1065.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!a8Vw!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F23cf77c1-e07e-4f31-9fa8-9c7a320ecd7d_1477x1065.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!a8Vw!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F23cf77c1-e07e-4f31-9fa8-9c7a320ecd7d_1477x1065.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!a8Vw!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F23cf77c1-e07e-4f31-9fa8-9c7a320ecd7d_1477x1065.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!a8Vw!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F23cf77c1-e07e-4f31-9fa8-9c7a320ecd7d_1477x1065.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" fetchpriority="high"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg aria-hidden="true" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>Each year, some players come out of nowhere to deliver huge fantasy seasons, especially in IDP leagues, given the relative instability of NFL defenses, as proven by players like Zack Baun (2024) and Jayron Kearse (2021), and by IDPs like Andrew Van Ginkel (2024) and Quincy Williams (2023), who came very close to finishing as IDP1s in previous years.</p><p>The EDGE position is a difficult group to expect major change at the top of the yearly finishers, evidenced by T.J. Watt taking the top spot in three of the past five years. This is also because the best and most consistent pass rushers will remain the most stable annual bets, and more often than not, one of the highly drafted EDGEs comes through and finishes as the overall ED1. That being said, it doesn&#8217;t mean it&#8217;s impossible for positive sack variance to swing in favor of an unexpected high-end pass rusher to break through.</p><p>These darkhorse options are all going outside the top 12 at their positions, according to our <a href="https://www.theidpshow.com/p/2026-idp-best-ball-adp-fantasy-football">ADP IDP-only best-ball drafts</a>, which have been running regularly throughout this offseason. Big-3 Scoring referenced throughout this piece can be found <a href="https://www.theidpshow.com/p/big-3-scoring">here</a>.</p><div class="subscription-widget-wrap-editor" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://www.theidpshow.com/subscribe?&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Subscribe&quot;,&quot;language&quot;:&quot;en&quot;}" data-component-name="SubscribeWidgetToDOM"><div class="subscription-widget show-subscribe"><div class="preamble"><p class="cta-caption">This Substack is reader-supported. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.</p></div><form class="subscription-widget-subscribe"><input type="email" class="email-input" name="email" placeholder="Type your email&#8230;" tabindex="-1"><input type="submit" class="button primary" value="Subscribe"><div class="fake-input-wrapper"><div class="fake-input"></div><div class="fake-button"></div></div></form></div></div><div><hr></div><p>Before locking in our choice for the dark horse EDGE1 for 2026, it&#8217;s important to look back at the past few seasons to see the anatomy of what made each EDGE1 finisher in IDP.</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!_NtP!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F58f5a8c3-84b9-4fe9-af82-636b1ea41fd1_4878x1512.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!_NtP!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F58f5a8c3-84b9-4fe9-af82-636b1ea41fd1_4878x1512.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!_NtP!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F58f5a8c3-84b9-4fe9-af82-636b1ea41fd1_4878x1512.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!_NtP!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F58f5a8c3-84b9-4fe9-af82-636b1ea41fd1_4878x1512.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!_NtP!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F58f5a8c3-84b9-4fe9-af82-636b1ea41fd1_4878x1512.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!_NtP!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F58f5a8c3-84b9-4fe9-af82-636b1ea41fd1_4878x1512.png" width="1456" height="451" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/58f5a8c3-84b9-4fe9-af82-636b1ea41fd1_4878x1512.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:451,&quot;width&quot;:1456,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:null,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:null,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:false,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:null,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!_NtP!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F58f5a8c3-84b9-4fe9-af82-636b1ea41fd1_4878x1512.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!_NtP!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F58f5a8c3-84b9-4fe9-af82-636b1ea41fd1_4878x1512.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!_NtP!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F58f5a8c3-84b9-4fe9-af82-636b1ea41fd1_4878x1512.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!_NtP!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F58f5a8c3-84b9-4fe9-af82-636b1ea41fd1_4878x1512.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg aria-hidden="true" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><ul><li><p>Step one to delivering even a top-12 performance at the position is almost certainly going to require at least double-digit sacks, and for those who don&#8217;t reach the high-end of that range, the need for another position-leading statistic like tackles, QB hits, or other big plays will be key. </p></li><li><p>This was the case with T.J. Watt in 2024, who, despite managing just 11.5 sacks on the year, filled the rest of the stat sheet, which included a league-leading six forced fumbles.</p></li><li><p>Tackle production is important, and to reach that EDGE1 finish, players will often need to deliver at least 40 tackles (excluding sacks), with the lone exception being Myles Garrett last year, who made up for it by breaking the NFL single-season sack record.</p></li></ul><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!71Kh!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc429cf3a-a5f8-4e67-a4c6-bca8374ce48d_4878x1542.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!71Kh!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc429cf3a-a5f8-4e67-a4c6-bca8374ce48d_4878x1542.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!71Kh!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc429cf3a-a5f8-4e67-a4c6-bca8374ce48d_4878x1542.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!71Kh!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc429cf3a-a5f8-4e67-a4c6-bca8374ce48d_4878x1542.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!71Kh!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc429cf3a-a5f8-4e67-a4c6-bca8374ce48d_4878x1542.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!71Kh!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc429cf3a-a5f8-4e67-a4c6-bca8374ce48d_4878x1542.png" width="1456" height="460" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/c429cf3a-a5f8-4e67-a4c6-bca8374ce48d_4878x1542.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:460,&quot;width&quot;:1456,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:null,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:null,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:null,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!71Kh!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc429cf3a-a5f8-4e67-a4c6-bca8374ce48d_4878x1542.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!71Kh!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc429cf3a-a5f8-4e67-a4c6-bca8374ce48d_4878x1542.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!71Kh!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc429cf3a-a5f8-4e67-a4c6-bca8374ce48d_4878x1542.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!71Kh!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc429cf3a-a5f8-4e67-a4c6-bca8374ce48d_4878x1542.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg aria-hidden="true" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><ul><li><p>The primary focus in putting a player over the top will be sacks, and to predict who will push for high-end sack totals, we need to dive into the underlying metrics.</p></li><li><p>Expected Sacks, as explained <a href="https://www.theidpshow.com/p/idp-production-vs-expected-database">here</a>, are our most stable and predictive metric for future sacks, so performing well in this regard will be crucial to 2026 success.</p></li><li><p>Each of these ED1 finishers all delivered near the very top of the position in Expected Sacks during those seasons.</p></li><li><p>Each of the past five ED1 finishers in Big-3 Scoring also finished no worse than top-10 in PFF pass-rush grade (min. 250 pass-rush snaps) in those seasons.</p></li><li><p>Typically, we&#8217;re looking for players well above average in pressure rate and win rate per season (min. 250 pass-rush snaps).</p></li></ul><p>With all of these criteria in mind, we can turn our attention to the top candidates to finish as the darkhorse ED1 this coming season. </p><div><hr></div><h1>Laiatu Latu, Indianapolis Colts</h1><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!PHGf!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa2a14d20-c8ee-484b-8ed8-2a8ffd641c7a_3942x942.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!PHGf!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa2a14d20-c8ee-484b-8ed8-2a8ffd641c7a_3942x942.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!PHGf!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa2a14d20-c8ee-484b-8ed8-2a8ffd641c7a_3942x942.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!PHGf!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa2a14d20-c8ee-484b-8ed8-2a8ffd641c7a_3942x942.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!PHGf!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa2a14d20-c8ee-484b-8ed8-2a8ffd641c7a_3942x942.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!PHGf!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa2a14d20-c8ee-484b-8ed8-2a8ffd641c7a_3942x942.png" width="1456" height="348" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/a2a14d20-c8ee-484b-8ed8-2a8ffd641c7a_3942x942.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:348,&quot;width&quot;:1456,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:null,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:null,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:null,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!PHGf!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa2a14d20-c8ee-484b-8ed8-2a8ffd641c7a_3942x942.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!PHGf!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa2a14d20-c8ee-484b-8ed8-2a8ffd641c7a_3942x942.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!PHGf!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa2a14d20-c8ee-484b-8ed8-2a8ffd641c7a_3942x942.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!PHGf!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa2a14d20-c8ee-484b-8ed8-2a8ffd641c7a_3942x942.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>Latu enters Year 3 of his NFL career on a positive trajectory in both production and underlying metrics. Building on a strong rookie season in 2024, Latu delivered new career highs in PFF pass-rush grade (77.0), overall grade (84.1), run defense grade (72.4), total pressures (61), sacks (8.5), and Expected Sack ranking (92nd percentile). Everything we want to see a highly drafted defensive lineman improve in during their sophomore season, Latu accomplished handily, as expected of an elite performer in our <a href="https://www.theidpshow.com/p/the-idp-show-prospect-models-rookies-fantasy-football">prospect model</a>.</p><p>The first two seasons of a defensive lineman&#8217;s NFL career are often considered developmental, with players typically truly reaching their potential in Years 3 and 4. For Latu, considering his early success already in the league, that leap could be substantial in 2026, to the point where he really could deliver on his elite prospect profile and not just crack the top-12 scorers at his position after <a href="https://www.theidpshow.com/p/big-3-idp-scoring-leaders">finishing as ED13</a> last year, but truly push for a position-leading finish.</p><p>While Latu doesn&#8217;t check every box we&#8217;re looking for <em>yet</em>, his trajectory entering Year 3 is what we&#8217;re banking on to help him meet all those requirements with ease. Latu&#8217;s snap share jumped from 54% as a rookie to 68% last year, with the potential to reach ~75% in Year 3, as is the norm for most top EDGEs. With increased playing time, Latu has more potential for sacks and tackles, putting that 40-plus target well within reach after finishing with 39 last year. Latu also finished <em>just</em> outside the top-20 in PFF pass-rush grade and win rate in Year 2, but considering his talent and prospect profile, he&#8217;s on track to deliver there as well.</p><p>Currently being drafted as the overall ED20, Latu should, at the very least, be a value for IDP managers betting on his Year 3 leap, even if the overall ED1 doesn&#8217;t come to fruition. However, with all the evidence backing him and his elite potential, Latu gets the first nod for me as a darkhorse ED1 option in 2026.</p><div id="youtube2-OAQG3XKzI2E" class="youtube-wrap" data-attrs="{&quot;videoId&quot;:&quot;OAQG3XKzI2E&quot;,&quot;startTime&quot;:null,&quot;endTime&quot;:null}" data-component-name="Youtube2ToDOM"><div class="youtube-inner"><iframe src="https://www.youtube-nocookie.com/embed/OAQG3XKzI2E?rel=0&amp;autoplay=0&amp;showinfo=0&amp;enablejsapi=0" frameborder="0" loading="lazy" gesture="media" allow="autoplay; fullscreen" allowautoplay="true" allowfullscreen="true" width="728" height="409"></iframe></div></div><div><hr></div><h1>George Karlaftis, Kansas City Chiefs</h1><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!YSfg!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F37d80c7e-bf36-4024-8765-c29a40c757f8_3942x942.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!YSfg!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F37d80c7e-bf36-4024-8765-c29a40c757f8_3942x942.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!YSfg!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F37d80c7e-bf36-4024-8765-c29a40c757f8_3942x942.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!YSfg!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F37d80c7e-bf36-4024-8765-c29a40c757f8_3942x942.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!YSfg!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F37d80c7e-bf36-4024-8765-c29a40c757f8_3942x942.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!YSfg!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F37d80c7e-bf36-4024-8765-c29a40c757f8_3942x942.png" width="1456" height="348" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/37d80c7e-bf36-4024-8765-c29a40c757f8_3942x942.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:348,&quot;width&quot;:1456,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:null,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:null,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:null,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!YSfg!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F37d80c7e-bf36-4024-8765-c29a40c757f8_3942x942.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!YSfg!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F37d80c7e-bf36-4024-8765-c29a40c757f8_3942x942.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!YSfg!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F37d80c7e-bf36-4024-8765-c29a40c757f8_3942x942.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!YSfg!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F37d80c7e-bf36-4024-8765-c29a40c757f8_3942x942.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>As a former first-round pick, Karlaftis hasn&#8217;t quite lived up to his potential as an IDP, though he&#8217;s been a solid and reliable NFL asset for the Chiefs&#8217; defensive line. Up until last season, Karlaftis was also arguably underwhelming as a pass rusher as well, but he seemingly found a new gear in Year 4, delivering career-highs in PFF pass-rush grade (75.8), pass-rush win rate (16.6%), total pressures (66), and Expected Sacks ranking (95th percentile). If Karlaftis is going to perform at this level as his new norm, he&#8217;ll be a clear candidate to push for a top IDP finish in 2026.</p><p>With Karlaftis&#8217; pass-rush metrics finally catching up to his playing time, he has real potential to check every box necessary to meet our requirements and push for that ED1 range. The pass-rush potential was one of the final pieces of the puzzle for Karlaftis to collect, as he&#8217;s typically averaged over 75% of defensive snaps over his past three seasons, and the tackle production at that level of playing time should come more often than not. Karlaftis has also delivered above the 65th percentile mark in Tackles versus Expected for the first time in his career, as his efficiency has finally improved.</p><p>With Year 4 being such an important one for defensive linemen, it was promising to see Karlaftis hit these new career highs by such a wide margin, and if he continues to improve into 2026, he&#8217;s well worth targeting in drafts. Much like <span>Latu, Karlaftis should, at the very least, outperform his current&nbsp;</span><a href="https://www.theidpshow.com/p/2026-idp-best-ball-adp-fantasy-football"><span>ADP of ED30.</span></a><span>&nbsp;Even</span> if he doesn&#8217;t finish as the overall ED1, highlighting him here as a player to target should still pay off for you, the valued reader and savvy IDP gamer.</p><div><hr></div><h1>Jaelan Phillips, Carolina Panthers</h1><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!G4oP!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb65a6ffc-75b7-4310-b2e5-3520b0e2005e_3942x942.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!G4oP!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb65a6ffc-75b7-4310-b2e5-3520b0e2005e_3942x942.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!G4oP!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb65a6ffc-75b7-4310-b2e5-3520b0e2005e_3942x942.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!G4oP!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb65a6ffc-75b7-4310-b2e5-3520b0e2005e_3942x942.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!G4oP!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb65a6ffc-75b7-4310-b2e5-3520b0e2005e_3942x942.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!G4oP!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb65a6ffc-75b7-4310-b2e5-3520b0e2005e_3942x942.png" width="1456" height="348" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/b65a6ffc-75b7-4310-b2e5-3520b0e2005e_3942x942.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:348,&quot;width&quot;:1456,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:null,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:null,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:null,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!G4oP!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb65a6ffc-75b7-4310-b2e5-3520b0e2005e_3942x942.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!G4oP!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb65a6ffc-75b7-4310-b2e5-3520b0e2005e_3942x942.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!G4oP!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb65a6ffc-75b7-4310-b2e5-3520b0e2005e_3942x942.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!G4oP!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb65a6ffc-75b7-4310-b2e5-3520b0e2005e_3942x942.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>Phillips being on this list will almost certainly be a point of contention for some IDP managers who have heard this song and dance in the past, before he ultimately lets us down. And as a Jaelan Phillips apologist, I nevertheless understand the frustration around him as an IDP. However, I&#8217;m nothing if not a glutton for punishment and a believer that positive regression is real (it is), and Phillips will be a beneficiary of good luck with his new team in Carolina.</p><p>This past season, Phillips played 17 games after combining for just 12 in the two seasons prior. Health has typically been Phillips&#8217; biggest hurdle, and if the injuries are truly behind him, like he proved last season, then that&#8217;s one massive step toward him achieving ED1 success for the first time in his career. And Phillips has come close to cracking that top-12 in the past, finishing as the overall ED16 in 2022, and was ED9 in points per game in 2023. This production has often been driven by strong underlying pass-rush metrics and high-end tackle potential, with him finishing in the 94th percentile in Tackles versus Expected in 2022 and 2023, and the 70th percentile in 2025 while playing for two separate teams.</p><p>Phillips posted his second career 90th-plus percentile finish in Expected Sacks this past season, and, given his status as the unquestioned ED1 with the Panthers now, he should get every opportunity to realize that pass-rush potential. And it is real potential, despite what his underwhelming sack total from last year will tell you; Phillips&#8217; Expected Sack mark and top-10 win rate for the position indicate clear positive regression and a player due for so much more.</p><p>Of course, ED1 overall is a long shot for any player, and probably even more so for Phillips, but as an IDP being drafted as the ED22 right now, there&#8217;s so much more potential for him, specifically, especially if he can stay healthy. And that&#8217;s really what we&#8217;re looking for from this group: a healthy season is what we need to help them reach their elite IDP potential.</p><div><hr></div><p><em>Be sure to subscribe to The IDP Show on <a href="https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-idp-show/id1473735209"><span>Apple</span></a>, <a href="https://open.spotify.com/show/7Ikx5jmKhLav0zXRrdHfvM?si=8a4c3df330e54661"><span>Spotify</span></a>, or <a href="https://www.youtube.com/@theidpshow"><span>YouTube</span></a>. </em></p><p><em>You can follow us on all our social media channels, including <a href="https://x.com/theidpshow"><span>Twitter</span></a></em> <em>and <a href="https://www.instagram.com/theidpshow?igsh=eTNqM3ZubDNobHZw&amp;utm_source=qr"><span>Instagram</span></a>.</em></p>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[2026 IDP Redraft Guide]]></title><description><![CDATA[The IDP Show's exclusive draft guide for the 2026 redraft fantasy football season.]]></description><link>https://www.theidpshow.com/p/2026-idp-redraft-guide-fantasy-football</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.theidpshow.com/p/2026-idp-redraft-guide-fantasy-football</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Jon Macri]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Wed, 01 Jul 2026 13:02:01 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!9jvI!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fba0318df-6a35-4573-8ef2-db24c88b08b5_1456x1048.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!9jvI!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fba0318df-6a35-4573-8ef2-db24c88b08b5_1456x1048.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!9jvI!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fba0318df-6a35-4573-8ef2-db24c88b08b5_1456x1048.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!9jvI!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fba0318df-6a35-4573-8ef2-db24c88b08b5_1456x1048.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!9jvI!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fba0318df-6a35-4573-8ef2-db24c88b08b5_1456x1048.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!9jvI!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fba0318df-6a35-4573-8ef2-db24c88b08b5_1456x1048.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!9jvI!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fba0318df-6a35-4573-8ef2-db24c88b08b5_1456x1048.png" width="1456" height="1048" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/ba0318df-6a35-4573-8ef2-db24c88b08b5_1456x1048.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:1048,&quot;width&quot;:1456,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:1216068,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:false,&quot;topImage&quot;:true,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://www.theidpshow.com/i/204279676?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fba0318df-6a35-4573-8ef2-db24c88b08b5_1456x1048.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!9jvI!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fba0318df-6a35-4573-8ef2-db24c88b08b5_1456x1048.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!9jvI!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fba0318df-6a35-4573-8ef2-db24c88b08b5_1456x1048.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!9jvI!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fba0318df-6a35-4573-8ef2-db24c88b08b5_1456x1048.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!9jvI!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fba0318df-6a35-4573-8ef2-db24c88b08b5_1456x1048.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" fetchpriority="high"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg aria-hidden="true" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>Following up on our first-ever IDP Rookie Draft Guide back in May, it only made sense that we go even bigger for the 2026 season with our first official 2026 IDP Redraft Guide. This was a collaborative effort from The IDP Show team, with Jon Macri, Mike Woellert, Jake Kohlhagen, Jeff Pomazal, Joseph Haggan, Josh Raymer, and Kyle Bellefeuil all contributing to over 150 pages&#8217; worth of IDP goodness!</p><p>This guide offers something for everyone; whether you&#8217;re a seasoned IDP veteran or new to IDP, we've included plenty of data and information. From 96 individual and unique player profiles to analyst picks for different breakouts, sleepers, and fades for this 2026 season, on top of rankings and a cheat sheet in time for your draft day, this guide has it all. We even included team depth charts, projected usage, and scheme data to make this guide as jam-packed as possible.</p><p>Below, you&#8217;ll find some sample pages so you can see exactly what you&#8217;re getting in the guide, with the full download link right below.</p><div><hr></div><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!PzRT!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F758b3b42-e57f-445e-bfcb-eb205b8b67ef_1545x1999.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!PzRT!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F758b3b42-e57f-445e-bfcb-eb205b8b67ef_1545x1999.png 424w, 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      <p>
          <a href="https://www.theidpshow.com/p/2026-idp-redraft-guide-fantasy-football">
              Read more
          </a>
      </p>
   ]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[2025 State of IDP Report - Part 1]]></title><description><![CDATA[Leveraging primary data from three league hosting sites and surveys of IDP managers to help understand and navigate the IDP landscape.]]></description><link>https://www.theidpshow.com/p/2025-state-of-idp-report-part-1-fantasy-football</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.theidpshow.com/p/2025-state-of-idp-report-part-1-fantasy-football</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[ProfessorIDP]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Tue, 30 Jun 2026 13:02:00 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!_TQX!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd267e0fd-b147-4821-a9cf-68e401e8686b_1495x1052.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!_TQX!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd267e0fd-b147-4821-a9cf-68e401e8686b_1495x1052.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!_TQX!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd267e0fd-b147-4821-a9cf-68e401e8686b_1495x1052.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!_TQX!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd267e0fd-b147-4821-a9cf-68e401e8686b_1495x1052.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!_TQX!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd267e0fd-b147-4821-a9cf-68e401e8686b_1495x1052.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!_TQX!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd267e0fd-b147-4821-a9cf-68e401e8686b_1495x1052.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!_TQX!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd267e0fd-b147-4821-a9cf-68e401e8686b_1495x1052.png" width="1456" height="1025" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/d267e0fd-b147-4821-a9cf-68e401e8686b_1495x1052.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:1025,&quot;width&quot;:1456,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:2172717,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:false,&quot;topImage&quot;:true,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://www.theidpshow.com/i/204151596?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd267e0fd-b147-4821-a9cf-68e401e8686b_1495x1052.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!_TQX!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd267e0fd-b147-4821-a9cf-68e401e8686b_1495x1052.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!_TQX!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd267e0fd-b147-4821-a9cf-68e401e8686b_1495x1052.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!_TQX!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd267e0fd-b147-4821-a9cf-68e401e8686b_1495x1052.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!_TQX!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd267e0fd-b147-4821-a9cf-68e401e8686b_1495x1052.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" fetchpriority="high"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg aria-hidden="true" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p><span>Welcome to the fifth edition of the State of IDP Report! As you&#8217;ll notice from the title, this is part 1 of a two-part series this year. Part 2 will be focused exclusively on scoring and will arrive next week. Beyond the expanded format, significant updates/changes this year include:</span></p><p><em><strong><span>All of the &#8220;Big 3&#8221; hosting sites are represented.</span></strong><span> Last year, we made a significant leap from relying solely on survey responses to collect primary data on leagues hosted on Sleeper and MyFantasyLeague (MFL). Past surveys have consistently shown Yahoo! as another significant platform for IDP, and this year we were able to scrape settings from several thousand fantasy leagues on this site as well!</span></em></p><div><hr></div><div class="subscription-widget-wrap-editor" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://www.theidpshow.com/subscribe?&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Subscribe&quot;,&quot;language&quot;:&quot;en&quot;}" data-component-name="SubscribeWidgetToDOM"><div class="subscription-widget show-subscribe"><div class="preamble"><p class="cta-caption">This Substack is reader-supported. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.</p></div><form class="subscription-widget-subscribe"><input type="email" class="email-input" name="email" placeholder="Type your email&#8230;" tabindex="-1"><input type="submit" class="button primary" value="Subscribe"><div class="fake-input-wrapper"><div class="fake-input"></div><div class="fake-button"></div></div></form></div></div><div><hr></div><p><em><strong><span>Settings data from over 95,000 fantasy leagues. </span></strong><span>Thanks to the addition of Yahoo!, we were able to better screen leagues for inclusion in our sample (such as eliminating playoff-only leagues on MFL or &#8216;unknown&#8217; format leagues on Sleeper), resulting in an even more comprehensive view of the IDP landscape. Given that Sleeper is the most popular platform, we sampled most heavily there (60,273). We scraped public-facing leagues on MFL (25,369) and all accessible Yahoo! leagues (9,642) for a total of 95,284 leagues.</span></em></p><p><em><strong><span>Primary behavioral data from nearly 350+ IDP managers. </span></strong><span>In the past, I had to rely on IDP managers to provide data for all of their IDP leagues. The addition of primary data from the most prominent league-hosting sites allowed me to pivot this year to explore IDP manager behaviors, such as how many leagues they manage, what formats they play, and where they play. This resulted in a much shorter survey with a much higher response rate, giving never-before-seen insights into IDP managers.</span></em></p><p><span>With this wealth of data, I narrow it down to four primary takeaways and tease a special report on IDP scoring coming soon as Part 2. I wrap up Part 1 with five  &#8216;quick hitters,&#8217; including some replications of key analyses from last year.</span></p><p><span>If you are curious why I do this, I would direct you to the </span><a href="https://www.theidpshow.com/p/2024-state-of-idp-report"><span>2024 Report</span></a><span> preamble to see the relevance for IDP managers, non-IDP managers, commissioners, analysts, and league hosting sites. Other past data and results are available here: </span><a href="https://www.theidpshow.com/p/2023-state-of-idp-report"><span>2023</span></a><span>, </span><a href="https://www.professoridp.com/general-idp/2022-state-of-idp"><span>2022</span></a><span>, and </span><a href="https://www.professoridp.com/general-idp/2021-state-of-idp"><span>2021</span></a><span>.</span></p><p><span>Lastly, a massive thank you to Jake Kohlhagen and Evan Ringler for their help with primary data procurement and to each of the 364 people who took the time to complete this year&#8217;s survey. With that out of the way, let&#8217;s get into today&#8217;s lecture on five key insights from the 2025 State of IDP Survey!</span></p><div><hr></div><h2><strong><span>#1: IDP leagues are a slowly growing niche</span></strong></h2><p><span>To put the percentage of IDP leagues into context, it is important to know the popularity of other aspects of fantasy football. The Sleeper dataset makes it easy to track leagues that use best-ball scoring, and 8.7% of leagues in our sample use this feature. On MFL, contracts are easily trackable, and 16.9% of leagues utilize this option. Finally, Yahoo! does a nice job of tracking SuperFlex, and this percentage is 11.9%. </span></p><p><span>Turning to IDP:</span></p><p style="text-align: center;"><em><span>Across our full 2025 sample, 13.3% of leagues used IDP (up from 12.3% of the 2024 sample).</span></em></p><p><span>As was the case last year, this 13.3% is not equally distributed across all platforms or formats. 17.6% of the leagues we could access on the Yahoo! platform used IDP, the highest percentage among the &#8216;big 3&#8217; platforms (albeit with the smallest sample). MFL had the second-highest percentage of IDP leagues at 16.7%, with Sleeper lagging behind at 11.2%. These numbers are incredibly similar to 2024, when 16.1% of MFL leagues and 10.9% of Sleeper leagues were IDP, but they indicate a positive trajectory.</span></p><p style="text-align: center;"><em><span>IDP grew slightly on both the MFL (+.6%) and Sleeper (+.3%) platforms from 2024 to 2025.</span></em></p><div><hr></div><h2><strong><span>#2: Dynasty is (still) the dominant IDP format</span></strong></h2><p><span>As noted in previous reports, most IDP leagues are dynasty. Dynasty is also very popular across the Sleeper and MFL platforms (Yahoo! league formats were not readily accessible). Of the 85,000+ leagues we examined on Sleeper and MFL, over half (50.7%) were identified as dynasty. IDP is still a niche in this subsample, but a larger one than in the overall population.</span></p><p style="text-align: center;"><em><span>The percentage of dynasty leagues that use IDP is 18.1%.</span></em></p><p><span>While this number is down slightly from the 20.2% figure reported in the 2024 Report, the survey data collected from IDP managers tells another story about the popularity of dynasty </span><em><span>within</span></em><span> the IDP community. I asked IDP managers what formats they play: Redraft, Dynasty, Keeper, Best Ball, Salary Cap, and Devy. Of these formats, only one was played by at least 50% of IDP managers:</span></p><p style="text-align: center;"><em><span>71.1% of IDP managers are in at least one dynasty IDP league.</span></em></p><div><hr></div><h2><strong><span>#3: IDP managers may not be the degenerates that people think they are</span></strong></h2><p><span>I say this more than a little tongue-in-cheek, given the label &#8216;degenerate&#8217; has become a badge of honor among many in the IDP community, but there is a stigma that very few people play IDP and that those who do are in dozens of leagues. Regarding the first part of this stigma, I highlighted above that IDP is roughly as popular as best ball in Sleeper, contracts in MFL, and superflex leagues on Yahoo! To further emphasize this point, we can examine the number of IDP teams in the overall sample. There are just over 1.15 million teams in the sample, in terms of IDP teams:</span></p><p style="text-align: center;"><em><span>Across our sample, we have identified 154,015 unique IDP teams.</span></em></p><p><span>While this number is interesting, if you subscribe to the idea that IDP managers are fantasy addicts and in dozens of leagues, it fits the </span><a href="https://x.com/Fantasy_Mansion/status/1896759786588541168"><span>narrative</span></a><span> that has made its way around the fantasy community that there are maybe 10,000 IDP managers in total (therefore averaging 15.4 leagues each). One of the questions I asked IDP managers was how many managed (non-best-ball) IDP leagues they are in.  The average was 3.32 leagues. If you translate that to our (limited) sample:</span></p><p style="text-align: center;"><em><span>Across our sample, we have likely identified 46,000 unique IDP managers.</span></em></p><div><hr></div><h2><strong><span>4: Sleeper positional format bleeding into other platforms</span></strong></h2><p><span>One of the elements I like to track each year is how IDP commissioners decide between using Sleeper-style general IDP positions (DL, LB, DB) and specific IDP positions (DT, DE, LB, CB, S). Past findings have been conflicting. In 2024, direct reports from IDP managers suggest they primarily play in leagues with specific positions (when available), while hard data from MFL suggests that most leagues opt for simplicity. This year, we have primary data from two sites that allow for either option in both MFL and Yahoo! Across nearly 6,000 IDP leagues hosted on these sites, almost 3,500 choose to use only three IDP positions.</span></p><p style="text-align: center;"><em><span>59% of IDP leagues with a choice of three or five IDP positions choose simplicity over specificity.</span></em></p><p><span>While this means that 41% of the leagues in the sample use some (or all) specific defensive positions, the preference for three general positions on these platforms is noteworthy. When paired with the popularity of the Sleeper platform in IDP (that has no five-position option&#8230;yet), this provides strong evidence that general IDP positions are the dominant positional format in IDP.</span></p><p style="text-align: center;"><em><span>Across the full sample, 80.8% of IDP leagues use three general defensive positions (DL, LB, DB).</span></em></p><div><hr></div><h2><strong><span>5: The state of IDP scoring (coming soon)</span></strong></h2><p><span>One of the chief complaints lodged by IDP skeptics is the proliferation of scoring systems. This has become such a common refrain by those inside and outside of the IDP community that I have decided to do a very deep dive into the data on IDP and non-IDP leagues to answer three questions in part two of this report (coming next week):</span></p><ol><li><p><em><span>How messy is the IDP scoring landscape?</span></em></p></li><li><p><em><span>Is IDP scoring more complex than offensive scoring?</span></em></p></li><li><p><em><span>Are IDP leagues ahead of the curve in adopting offensive scoring innovations?</span></em></p></li></ol><div><hr></div><h2><strong><span>Quick Hits</span></strong></h2><ul><li><p><em><span>Sleeper, MFL, and Yahoo! are the &#8220;Big 3&#8221; IDP platforms. </span></em><span>This report has identified Sleeper, MFL, and Yahoo! as the primary IDP platforms. The survey data clearly supports this assumption. While roughly &#8531; of the IDP managers&#8217; surveys reported playing IDP on multiple platforms, three stood out as the most popular.  Sleeper was the most popular IDP platform, with 183 respondents playing in at least one IDP league. MFL was second with 100 respondents, with Yahoo! in third at 75 (more than 2x the fourth platform - ESPN).</span></p></li><li><p><em><span>IDP-only leagues are very rare.</span></em><span> Last year, roughly 2% of leagues were reported as IDP-only. This year, relying only on primary league data, the percentage dropped to 1.7%. IDP-only is fun, and more people should absolutely try it (for instance in </span><a href="https://www.theidpshow.com/p/announcing-idp-madness-2026-fantasy-football"><span>IDP Madness</span></a><span>).</span></p></li><li><p><em><span>Over one-third of IDP leagues use five or fewer IDP starters. </span></em><span>I dubbed this format &#8216;IDP-lite&#8217; in last year&#8217;s report, and it comprised 37.1% of the sample. This percentage dropped slightly this year (and the overall average number of IDP starters in a given league was 7.04).</span></p></li><li><p><em><span>IDP leagues tend to be bigger than offense-only.</span></em><span> While we would expect roster sizes to be bigger when leagues use IDP, IDP leagues also had more teams on average. On Sleeper, the average offense-only league had 11.6 teams while the average IDP league had 13.0, with this trend continuing on MFL (13.25 offense-only vs 13.84 IDP) and Yahoo! (10.6 offense-only vs 12.2 IDP).</span></p></li><li><p><em><span>IDP managers are veteran fantasy football players. </span></em><span>In this year&#8217;s survey, I asked about experience playing fantasy football in general and IDP in particular on a scale from 1 (new this year) to 5 (15+ years). The average fantasy football experience reported was 4.22 (between 10-15 years and 15+ years). As expected, the mean for IDP experience was lower at 3.26, but what was surprising was that 36.3% reported playing both for approximately the same amount of time. Also noteworthy, 30.3% reported playing IDP for less than 5 years, with 4.9% being new to the format last year.  This should be taken with a grain of salt, though, as more experienced managers were likely more aware of the survey's existence.</span></p></li></ul><div><hr></div><p><em>Be sure to subscribe to The IDP Show on <a href="https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-idp-show/id1473735209"><span>Apple</span></a>, <a href="https://open.spotify.com/show/7Ikx5jmKhLav0zXRrdHfvM?si=8a4c3df330e54661"><span>Spotify</span></a>, or <a href="https://www.youtube.com/@theidpshow"><span>YouTube</span></a>.</em></p><p><em>You can follow us on all our social media channels, including <a href="https://x.com/theidpshow"><span>Twitter</span></a></em> <em>and <a href="https://www.instagram.com/theidpshow?igsh=eTNqM3ZubDNobHZw&amp;utm_source=qr"><span>Instagram</span></a>.</em></p><div><hr></div><div class="subscription-widget-wrap-editor" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://www.theidpshow.com/subscribe?&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Subscribe&quot;,&quot;language&quot;:&quot;en&quot;}" data-component-name="SubscribeWidgetToDOM"><div class="subscription-widget show-subscribe"><div class="preamble"><p class="cta-caption">This Substack is reader-supported. 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